When in 2016 many researchers projected apparel e-commerce sales to be 40 percent by 2020 similar arguments were raised about this motive and that motive and as per 2019 data apparel sales online were already 39 percent at the end of 2019. Grocery is all set for explosive growth online. See you in 2025.
I think there is a difference between grocery store sales and grocery sales and the sales and overall grocery demand. Agree for top 100 Q2 2020 sales vs Q2 019 are up 8.9%, but the digitally most mature have grown 2X. I am not sure what your source of data for digital contribution of digital sales is. Are you excluding BOPIS and curbside?
If one goes through the details of the study they seem to have taken into account the post COVID-19 dip. 6 percent to 10 percent of customers who are shopping online will return to stores. the growth might dip marginally post pandemic but once the retailers have taken care of the points of friction growth will accelerate.
Seniors citizen are super likely to return to stores and shop but the younger age groups are likely to shop more online and even in categories like fresh foods, pharmacy and liquor. Newer categories are being bought online.
Retailer readiness is a function of what consumers demand. See how the transition happened in the light of the pandemic. Only 30 percent of grocers offered curbside pickup at the end of last year and now it is almost everyone. It might take one to three years to align operating models, make the right tech investments and optimize cost.