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Thomas Paulson

Principal, Inflection Capital Management
Consultant for consumer insights, strategy formation, business development, and M&A (targeting, screening, & due diligence).
  • Posted on: 06/18/2021

    Will Americans invite Best Buy into their backyards?

    $1200 average ticket x 34 percent gross margin = ~$400 gross profits + customer engagement + customer acquisition + consumer/customer data - $150 in labor, delivery, insurance, disposal, etc. = a pretty darn good opportunity if it can scale. I'm not sure they can find enough workers to provide a flawless consumer experience at scale in the current labor market.
  • Posted on: 09/19/2020

    Will Amazon’s new online store disrupt the luxury fashion and beauty business?

    Lots of smart comments here on the Amazon-Lux initiative. Amazon has a history of running large experiments; this is one of them. Important here is how they have learned from prior ones by now giving the brands control of the product, store, and maybe shopper data (don't know on this one). For Amazon, this is an opportunity for them to more cleanly identify high-end, high-spend Prime members. That insight allows for them to better merchandise the recommendations for the basic Amazon store. It also allows them to identify the geographic clusters of ENGAGED high-end Prime members. That it turn allows for them to identify where they can locate high-end boutique stores for returns AND highly-informed curated styling sessions. Such sessions have significant conversion rates, basket lifts, and low return rates. (See article here). Moreover, over time Amazon needs to expand into new large areas of consumption (PCE) such as travel to allow for a mash-up of travel+content+merchandise that will allow for a longer-period of hyper-growth beyond COVID's digitization. (See here). Having identified these clusters also allows for more options in that TAM expansion.
  • Posted on: 08/20/2020

    Do Americans think that Target is the easiest place to shop?

    Simple + Clean with Consumers Trusting Target's COVID Safety Protocols + Right Demo + Right Product + In-Stock + Impeccable Execution. See why we believe that Target will comp mid-teens in the 2H and what's the outlook for mass merchants post COVID.
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