Director of Research and Business Development, Placer
Thomas Paulson has spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of significant asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital where he represented top-50 ownership positions in such companies as Target, Home Depot, Ralph Lauren, Nike, Disney, Comcast, Amazon, Google, and many more. Thomas' industry expertise is consumer related industries, including retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, entertainment (TV and film), and internet services, as well as consumer insights and economics.
  • Posted on: 08/22/2021

    Has Target ‘only begun to scratch the surface of what’s possible’ for its business?

    Also of importance is the composition of the comp. In-store comp sales gained +8.7% and transactions were up +12.7%. (Placer’s data also shows traffic up +12.7%, with July being the strongest month.) The average transaction amount was down -3.4%. That decline is a function of the normalization from last year’s trip consolidation and pantry load trips. This suggests that while the consumer is no longer consolidating trips, they are also not “un-consolidating” them at last year’s COVID winners Walmart, Target, Albertsons, and Costco. This has negative ramifications for the smaller grocers like Whole Foods, etc. Target’s grocery business grew ~ +13% on top of a +21% increase in ‘20; these compounded are a 38% increase, or +$5B on an annualized basis. Similar to Walmart’s e-commerce slowdown, Target’s e-commerce sales (including curbside, in-store pick up, Shipt, and home delivery) rose only +10% YoY, or by $317M (2X’s Walmart's) with the curbside, pick up, and Shipt portion up +55% and the home delivery piece down -21%. Yes, Target is winning increased market share by leveraging its stores.
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