BrainTrust Query: Numbers and Stories

Commentary by Devangshu Dutta, Chief Executive, Third Eyesight
Through a special arrangement, presented here for
discussion is a summary of a current article from Third Eyesight’s blog.
Despite the wealth of information available today, far too many bad business
decisions are being made in the absence of good information, either because
the executives have not bothered to carry out research, or have not had the
capability or the time to question the research which is being presented to
them.
Worse – perhaps because of the abundant data and the ease of access to it
– today many business decisions that turn bad are taken on the basis of information
that is presented by someone else (“secondary research” in research
language), without questioning the validity of the conclusions, the structure
of the study, the context in which the data was analyzed. It’s almost as if
we couldn’t be bothered to think, because someone has apparently already done
the thinking for us – especially if it comes from a “reputable source.”
Sometimes the problem lies in the perception of research as an impenetrable
jungle in which it is easy to get lost but difficult to find something immediately
useful. Researchers, like all other vocations, have their own jargon which
they sometimes use to identify their own kind, and perhaps sometimes to exclude
people who are not from the trade. Very often this jungle is created by “research-as-a-foreign-language”,
which many executives are just too apprehensive or too busy to tackle.
Also, research (especially the number-oriented kind) seems too dry for most
people to take in. And I think that is one place market researchers could
do themselves a huge benefit if they could tell the story – especially a story
with a moral at the end. That is, create the picture for the user as to what
all of that information means in simple language, and also show the user how
to use the information in the context of his situation or problem. Bedtime
stories during childhood and good movies in adulthood work well because there
is a coherent narrative, a start, a middle that is interesting and an ending
that stays in the mind. You can see the relationships between the characters,
and the consequences of those relationships. A good research project report
could be seen as something very similar.
Having said that, of course, there are also some researchers that go far
beyond, who would never let boring facts get in the way of a good story. How
many stores can you think of which are located at sites where their chances
of success are exactly the same as that of a snowball in hell? How many products
or brand launches come to mind, where you wondered, “what is this company
thinking?!” Of course, there would have been pre-launch studies which
would have shown just how successful these would be, where the stories were
possibly based more on imagination than on facts.
For a decision-maker, the only way to tell the difference between bad statistics
and the true story of the market is to make sure that he or she is equipped
with multiple sources of information, and various tools with which to analyze
them.
Numbers (quantitative research) and narrative (qualitative research) can
tell us many wonderful stories about the market. Some of those stories are
highly imaginative “fairy tales” because of a bad study – that shouldn’t
lead us to ignore all the others which can direct us to our objectives.
Discussion Questions: Do you find many corporations take a narrow view of
research? What are the hurdles preventing decision-makers from fully utilizing
all available research? In what ways can research providers improve on the
ways they communicate their findings?
Join the Discussion!
18 Comments on "BrainTrust Query: Numbers and Stories"
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This sounds a lot like a chapter we wrote for ESOMAR’s Best Practices book. We have devalued research in favor of insights, which can rely much more on a good narrative and much less on good data. A management team that expects insights from research all the time is asking for trouble down the road. A research team that doesn’t focus on quality first and insights second is doomed to failure when management makes the wrong moves.
Research needs to give management the best information possible in a way that management can understand it. Management needs to understand that research is providing the best information it can within budget constraints. The two need to work together.
One of the concerns I have at present is how SKU rationalization research is viewed, so quickly judged, and acted upon. Many retailers are looking only through a narrow interpretation based on shear numbers and not taking into consideration other more visionary factors about specialty brands, niche items, and growth brands. If this keeps up, consumers will have very few choices and most of the stores will all look the same with exact assortments. Only price will differentiate one from the other. The results will be rather ironic.
Decisions are always made without perfect information to support them. But sometimes, decisions are made that ignore the available information or decline the implications.
Research is clearly most valuable when it can be turned into actionable recommendations. We are all too aware that research can be used as a fishing expedition without a clear objective. However, there is also a danger in using research designed just to prove a point rather than develop real, new learning.
On balance, I believe that research, properly done, interpreted, and acted upon, can vastly improve the decision making process.
During my 11 years with Kenosia I used a phrase with clients “One truth.” By combining disparate data sources, a retailer or a brand manager can get to the “one truth” and then make a business decision regarding direction. Far too often, decisions are made using one source of data which can lead to less than effective results.
Example, if a retailer only views their loyalty data to make business decisions about advertising, are they understanding all the trends happening in their market? Probably not. Combining their loyalty data with demographic data makes it better and adding additional information from a syndicated data provider makes it even better yet.
The great news is, there are a dozen technology solutions to help both retailers and brand managers combine data and the data to combine is available and affordable. It boils down to first understanding the questions and then going out and combining all the best data sets to create the answers.
One simple question expresses the confusion around statistics: “Why do we have Democratic and Republican Pollsters?” I think it was Harry Truman who when confronted by economists telling him “Well on one hand the statistics are saying this, but on the other they could mean this” said “Someone get me a one armed economist.”
The thing with retail is that we don’t need answers to thousands of different questions. We ask the same questions a thousand times: how does this product sell, what is its net profit, how important is it to my customers, does it fit my brand objective, how does it relate to other products, are there viable substitutes, etc? Instead of poring over tons of numbers, the POS data should be used to construct answers to questions.
So the fundamental reason retailers (and anyone, really) make bad decisions from raw data is because they don’t know what questions they’re trying to answer. Start there.
The fact that information is available and is being used effectively are two separate things! Usually a company uses too much information, regardless of correct or incorrect, or it does not use information. Very few companies strike and maintain a balance between insight, gut feeling/intuition and relevant, timely information in decision making.
Where would Disney be without fairy tales?
There are plenty of great tools to make sense of all of the information. The challenge is balancing it with the human side. Take, for example, the stores. Are all corporate employees required to walk the stores and report what they see? View the stores in the evening when store management has left for the day. These age-old problems are still far too common, yet they are the source of some of the most valuable information available anywhere. Sales will be increased, labor decreased and earnings improved if this information is acted upon.
Corporations take broad views of research. There are many reasons why research is not being carried out or questioned. Both front end and back end issues plague research. Front end issues revolve around the design.
Interscope supports the axiom that 90% of a good research project is in the design. Two key areas of the design process revolve around gaining a solid understanding of the business objective and establishing key learning objectives. Back end issues revolve around communication of the learning. Poor research communication hinders the activation of insights. Research communication is vastly improved when the end goals of the research are incorporated into the design.