Online Grocery 2005

By George Anderson
Safeway’s decision to roll out its online shopping and home delivery service in the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. region is the latest indication that such services are alive and well.
Safeway enters a market where Ahold’s Peapod service has been operating for a number of years. Safeway operates its service under a partnership with Tesco.
To attract consumers, Safeway is offering first-time customers free delivery on their first order, the company said.
According to Forrester Research, online food and beverage purchases are expected to growing to $17.4 billion in 2008. In 2003, online grocery generated $3.7 billion in business.
Moderator’s Comment: What is the state of online grocery in 2005? Where do you see the business moving in the years ahead? –
George Anderson – Moderator
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16 Comments on "Online Grocery 2005"
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The deliverable foods business will have to reach out and create a profitable business model. $10.00 a gallon gas and parking lot safety might make delivery affordable but that’s another discussion. One model might be to network neighborhoods by day of the week and time of day. They pay a membership fee of $$$. Members are sent reminders on line to submit their orders by the end of previous day, the delivery truck warehouses incremental items milk, bread, candy etc… and volume and efficiencies drive the profits. Grocery stores have inherently low margins and need impulse sales to add margin dollars to the bottom line.
Pizza places already have a distribution network and continue to add different types of prepared food to their menus as they grow incremental business. Someone will figure it out. Way too busy and too tired to shop efficiently.
I used to be a detractor of online, home-delivery grocery sales. Then, a confluence of living alone, home-officing, and recovery from open-heart surgery (no driving) forced me to consider home-delivery from a nearby Safeway to satisfy my guacamole jones. They did a pretty good job, especially since I was pretty much always home alone during that period. I even formed a relationship of sorts with my regular delivery folks.
Special circumstances like mine seem to drive the business of home-delivered groceries. As those special circumstances evolve with societal, health, and economic changes, online grocery sales will follow.
Like David, I thought of Publix instantly. When it comes to home delivery of groceries, I’m reminded a little of the old South American joke, which says that Brazil “is the country of the future, and always will be.” But in this case, I’m bullish over the long haul. I think Fresh Direct has a good model and is doing well, which suggests that this works best in upscale urban markets. It’ll come. The pioneers get the arrows in the back, but eventually someone makes it, and then others follow.
So far, I still don’t see any companies making a profit with online grocery shopping. If there was money to be made, the well-run grocery companies would be doing it. If Publix could not make a go of it, I doubt a misguided company like Safeway can do any better. Most people still find that grocery shopping is not an inconvenience or unpleasant experience. Perhaps Safeway realizes that shopping in their stores is an unpleasant experience and that online shopping might be a better alternative for their shoppers. Super Valu released an excellent report a couple of years ago that went into great detail why online shopping has been a flop in the USA. I’ve passed it along to other RetailWire readers in the past.
There is no question that online food shopping, like shopping for other goods, will represent a sizeable segment of the grocery market as soon as providers can get their operations in order to handle volumes and efficiency. Time-constrained people and those seeking convenience have trained themselves to use the internet for all types of shopping – food is just a logical extension. This merchandise segment is unique in that it might be termed “daily goods” or goods that are purchased repetitively. All the more reason for people with limited time to use this service. Most likely they buy the same brands consistently and so, unlike apparel (which does well online), there is very little that needs to be done in person. If you add in the convenience factor, this is a winner if executed properly.
My previous occupation was in the retirement care industry. I’m tempted to believe that there is a demographic that is entering a time in life where it has become painful to shop, and will consider alternatives out of necessity.
Safeway has the name that this group will trust. Publix? Home Grocer? No. Granted, this group is uncomfortable online, but at this stage they are probably beginning to use caregivers, who could do the ordering. And – this group communicates within itself regularly.
This is a small target audience, but it’s growing and here to stay.
Fresh Direct sales are growing nicely, but no one outside the company can tell if there are any profits. They are a nonunion firm, with a starting wage of $7/hour. Their customers in NYC love them, because the prices are very good (for NYC) and the service is excellent. What’s unclear is how the company can pay people to pick, pack, and deliver based on the modest margins and service fees. Given the size of the staff (3 figures, going to 4 figures assuming the growth continues) they’ll end up organized by a union who’ll double the compensation cost, based on increased wages and union benefits. I doubt that they’re profitable now, and with a union in the future, their losses are assured. Americans demand their groceries at very low margins and low price points. Picking, packing, and delivery are very labor intensive. Sales can be achieved, but profits are unlikely.
This is still a niche business but will increasingly become an integral part of many retailers’ overall efforts to serve the broader needs of their shopper base.
There are enough “straws in the wind” like Fresh Direct to demonstrate that some shoppers really like this type of service, assuming it delivers real value, i.e., that the cost to the shopper is viewed as “worth it.”
Expect increased price and service competition over the next year or two and as this increases, the share of business done by this segment will grow, primarily as a complement to regular grocery shopping.
Keep in mind that Amazon is developing a grocery strategy.
Presently, and the major purpose… it serves as a service to the seniors, the posh suburban shoppers and/or city dwellers. You have to micro market its usage.
You have to forget making a profit (and when did retailers say we make 2 cents after tax, or we don’t do it?). But do get a decent margin… to come close to breaking even.
Some independents are using this convenient vehicle as a competitive advantage. And if Starbucks, Fridays, drug chains and independents, are testing a program like this, it raises the bar for grocers to play in this arena, in a smart fashion! Hmmmmmm