Nike Warns Investors of Incoming Sales Slump: Cites Tariffs, Macroeconomic Volatility, Lack of Consumer Confidence

Nike offered a gloomy picture of its immediate future in the marketplace during a March 20 conference call with analysts, per CNBC, indicating that a significant sales decline and loss of gross margin was in the cards this quarter.

Nike EVP and CFO Matt Friend suggested that Nike will see a sales decline of somewhere in the “low end” of the “mid-teens range,” a guidance estimate that is far below Wall Street’s expectations (via LSEG), which anticipated a decline of 11.4%. Further, gross margin is projected to tumble between 4% and 5% as liquidation efforts connected to the company’s turnaround continue apace — an effort that is expected to extend into fiscal 2026.

“We believe that the fourth quarter will reflect the largest impact from our … actions, and that the headwinds to revenue and gross margin will begin to moderate from there,” said Friend.

“We are also navigating through several external factors that create uncertainty in the current operating environment, including geopolitical dynamics, new tariffs, volatile foreign exchange rates and tax regulations, as well as the impact of this uncertainty and other macro factors on consumer confidence,” he added.

Nike Delivers EPS and Revenue Beats, Despite Sales Dipping During Q3 2025

In delivering its Q3 2025 results, there was a bit of a silver lining for Nike (namely, earnings per share and revenue beats), but with one major caveat: an existing decline in sales that preceded this latest forward-looking guidance.

EPS came in at $0.54 against $0.29 estimated, and revenue was reported at $11.27 billion versus $11.01 billion estimated. And although sales declined by 9.3% to the aforementioned $11.27 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal, that figure was still ahead of estimates of $11.02 billion (via FactSet). The WSJ reported that execs gestured toward tariffs on Mexico and China for some of the soft figures, with Nike manufacturing 18% of its footwear and 16% of its apparel in China.

“We’re not satisfied with our overall results. We can and will be better,” Nike CEO Elliott Hill said of the results during the analyst call, per WSJ.