Airline Bookings Between Canada and the US Down 70%, Likely Due to Trump Tariffs

In the aftermath of the institution (and expansion) of President Donald Trump’s tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China, and other major trading partners, at least one nation’s citizens have apparently been reluctant to travel stateside.

According to a Mar. 26 report from travel data firm OAG, passenger bookings on Canada-U.S. routes have plummeted by 70% versus year-ago levels, with future months showing even further decline.

“Future flight bookings between Canada and the US have collapsed,” wrote OAG chief analyst John Grant.

“Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we’ve compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute,” Grant continued.

Exacerbating the trade war issue, Jalopnik argued, were the repeated threats — serious or no — of annexation made by the president. Concerns regarding foreign visitors being detained by ICE were also spooking some would-be Canadian travelers, per The Guardian.

Airline Capacity From Canada to the US Cut Moving Forward, WestJet Eyes Europe as Replacement

According to OAG data, airlines are responding to the lack of demand for Canada-U.S. air travel by reducing seating capacity and removing some flights entirely.

More than 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines servicing cross-border routes, with peak summer-season months July and August seeing the most drastic cuts (down 3.5%, or about 140,000 seats).

Canadian carrier WestJet has seemingly pivoted to European destinations as a potential replacement for travel-hungry Canadians, with Edinburgh and Dublin being top of the list in terms of destinations. This pivot comes as part of WestJet’s “most significant transatlantic schedule from Atlantic Canada,” per CCO John Weatherill, as cited by Business Insider.

“We have observed a shift in bookings from the U.S. to other sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean, and to transatlantic destinations,” a WestJet spokesperson said, as reported by The Points Guy. “We remain focused on continuing to fly where there is demand.”