Consumer Retail Sales, NRF, consumer confidence

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NRF Projects US Retail Sales of at Least $5.42 Trillion Despite Tariffs: ‘Consumer Spending Is Not Unraveling’

April 7, 2025

Nicholas Morine

The National Retail Federation (NRF) offered a bit of cheery news to those watching the U.S. economy’s performance as of late. According to an April 2 press release from the NRF detailing its State of Retail & the Consumer event of the same date, U.S. consumer spending is anticipated to grow throughout the year, despite headwinds.

“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains — however, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Still, serving customers will remain retailers’ top priority no matter what the economic environment.”

The NRF projects that U.S. retail sales will grow by between 2.7% and 3.7% versus 2024’s figures as 2025 proceeds to an end, a value of between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion. Despite the obvious challenges facing the U.S. retail sector (tariffs being one source of focus), these statistics may measure up to 2024’s growth versus the year prior — in 2024, the American retail business experienced 3.6% annual growth valued at $5.29 trillion.

“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”

Kleinhenz went on to acknowledge that while there were indicators showing that consumer sentiment was souring, his organization was instead focused on metrics concerning other macroeconomic trends when forming its projections.

“It’s the hard data on employment, income and tariff-induced inflation — not consumer sentiment — that supports our view of a slower trajectory for consumer spending,” he said.

NRF Expects Inflation To Remain Steady, but Much Depends on the US Labor Market

The press release detailed that the NRF expects personal consumption expenditure inflation to remain steady at about 2.5% and underscored the fact that household balance sheets appeared to be relatively healthy. While gesturing toward concerning credit card delinquency and credit card payments, the organization also suggested that these data points fell in line with pre-pandemic trends.

GDP growth decline is expected to occur, however, with NRF estimating that it will fall below 2% for 2025, following 2.8% GDP growth in 2024.

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