Nintendo Expects To Sell 15 Million Switch 2 Units by March 2026, Delivers Cautious Forecast Due to Tariffs

Gaming giant Nintendo is ramping up for the imminent launch of its much-anticipated Switch 2 console, the successor to its wildly successful original Switch lineup — one which had sold nearly 151 million units as of February this year, per Forbes.

Now, as CNBC reported, Nintendo is projecting that it will move at least 15 million Switch 2 consoles by the end of fiscal year 2026, which occurs in March of next year. That figure is being reinforced by commentary from market research firm Omdia, which estimates that the company that plays home to such iconic characters as Mario, Link, Samus, and Kirby could sell 14.7 million Switch 2s by the end of 2025 alone.

“Switch 2 will launch into a stronger position than its predecessor, with over 100 million active Switch users providing a strong foundation for adoption,” George Jijiashvili, Omdia’s senior principal analyst, told CNBC.

Meanwhile, Nintendo also delivered a somewhat mixed fourth-quarter earnings report alongside its full-year breakdown. In the fourth quarter, the gaming and collectibles company delivered a revenue miss, versus LSEG estimates, of $1.45 billion against $1.49 billion — counterbalanced by a more significant profit beat of $287 million set against $234 million anticipated.

Much of that slowdown in sales this year has been attributed to falling sales of Nintendo’s flagship Switch console as gamers eager for the latest and greatest set their sights, and wallets, on the Switch 2.

Nintendo Offers Strong (Yet Below Analyst Expectations) Forecast, Hedging Its Bets Due to Tariffs

Nintendo currently projects net sales of $13.1 billion for the coming fiscal year, slightly below LSEG expectations of $13.8 billion. As for net profit, the company is looking for a 7.6% jump to $2.06 billion versus $2.68 expected.

On May 8, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa signaled that, should additional tariffs be put in place that cause the price of goods to tick upward, demand in the U.S. may respond negatively. Duties could also act as a substantial headwind against the company’s profit, he added.

Serkan Toto, CEO of Tokyo-based games consultancy Kantan Games, spoke to Nintendo’s tendency toward more restrained fiscal estimates.

“Nintendo loves lowballing their forecasts, and the current climate around tariffs gives them all the reason to be more cautious than ever,” Toto told CNBC, adding that tariff uncertainty was proving a stumbling block for the company.

“What happens if the tariffs on imports from China stay this high for longer or if they are raised for Vietnam [where Nintendo manufactures its consoles, and which is facing a current 46% tariff]?” Toto added. “If Nintendo needed to raise prices by $100 or more, all bets would be off and the company would be under enormous pressure in the all-important U.S. market.”