November 26, 2025
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Are Restaurants Shrinking the Thanksgiving Opportunity for Grocers?
Escaping the pressure of Thanksgiving meal preparation and dry-turkey risks, many U.S. households are shifting to catered meals — increasingly from restaurants — perhaps at the expense of grocery sales.
A recent survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers from Popmenu, a provider of online ordering and marketing software for restaurants, found 53% plan to order the whole meal — or certain dishes pre-made — from restaurants for Thanksgiving dinner. This figure is up from 37% in 2024, and 32% in 2023. Of the 53%, 7% plan to order meal kits from restaurants to cook at home.
Asked why they were turning to restaurants for all, or part, of their Thanksgiving meal, the top reasons cited were:
- 63% want to enjoy the holiday and not worry about cooking.
- 40% believe it’s cheaper, or costs about the same, as buying the ingredients and cooking at home.
- 35% don’t want the hassle of buying the ingredients and cooking themselves.
- 26% would rather have a professionally cooked meal.
- 19% are too busy to prepare a meal or dish.
“What we hear from Thanksgiving hosts every year is a growing desire to spend more time visiting with guests and enjoying the holiday than sweating in the kitchen,” said Brendan Sweeney, CEO and co-founder of Popmenu, in a statement.
Only 5% expect to dine in person at a restaurant on Thanksgiving, same as the prior year.
Research Suggests Purchasing Thanksgiving Dinner Is on the Upswing
Technomic research from 2023 identified a similar trend. The survey found 23% of U.S. adults are likely to purchase a complete, ready-made Thanksgiving meal for pickup from a restaurant, while 22% may roast the bird themselves — but still rely on restaurants for parts of the meal.
Grocers — also including Walmart, Target, Costco, Aldi and Amazon — are increasingly offering fully-cooked or meal-kit Thanksgiving options as they capitalize on the prepared foods opportunity. According to FMI’s The Power of Foodservice at Retail 2025 report, 28% of shoppers buy deli-prepared foods from grocers instead of going to a restaurant, up from 12% in 2017.
However, the internet is full of articles promoting pre-made Thanksgiving deals from a variety of non-grocers. These include offerings from food specialists such as Harry & David, HoneyBaked Ham Co., Nueske’s, Omaha Steaks, Goldbelly, and Williams Sonoma.
The biggest competitors appear to be numerous local and chain restaurants. Among those offering pre-cooked Thanksgiving meals are Bob Evans, Cracker Barrel, Denny’s, Buca di Beppo, Morton’s The Steakhouse and Maggiano’s — as well fast food chains including KFC, Popeyes, and Chipotle.
Numerator’s 2025 Q4 Holiday Preview showed more favorable findings around the tradition of preparing and roasting a turkey in the kitchen. Based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. adults, the survey found 85% planning to celebrate Thanksgiving this year, with 56% planning on cooking or baking at home.
Nearly 90% of Thanksgiving celebrators will purchase food for the holiday. Asked where they plan to purchase their Thanksgiving goods, the top spot was nabbed by grocery stores (Kroger, Publix, etc.), cited by 72%; followed by big box stores (Walmart, Costco, Target, etc.), at 54%. Only 6% indicated they planned to buy their Thanksgiving goods from restaurants, bars, or food delivery services, telling a different story from competing studies.
BrainTrust
Scott Benedict
Founder & CEO, Benedict Enterprises LLC
Neil Saunders
Managing Director, GlobalData
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Do you see restaurants increasingly taking Thanksgiving dollar share from grocers?
What’s driving the appeal of fully-cooked or meal-kit Thanksgiving options? Is it a positive or negative trend for traditional grocers?
Poll
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More restaurants than ever offer catering and prepared food for Thanksgiving. It is part of a broader trend of restaurants trying to grab share of the at-home market, whether through takeout, selling general provisions, or providing catering. This isn’t completely new, but it accelerated during the pandemic and continues to proliferate. That said, foodservice prices are up sharply, more so than grocery prices – and this dampens consumer interest. And the grocery opportunity in Thanksgiving remains huge.
Well, yes, theoretically every store that opens “shrinks the opportunity” for every other store; but of course this is true for every store – every grocery affects every other grocery, too – and. honestly! – what a hopelessly zero-sum view of things: let’s have stores contribute value where-, and however they can, and not fixate on a retail version of Spy vs. Spy.
I think it’s likely that restaurants and meal-kit providers will continue to capture a growing share of Thanksgiving meal dollars — but this doesn’t necessarily portend a long-term shift away from grocers. The appeal of fully-cooked or semi-prepared holiday meals is compelling: convenience, time savings, and the ability to relieve stress during peak cooking demand. For many consumers, especially younger families or busy professionals, the value of not spending hours shopping, prepping, and cooking outweighs the price premium. That said, these preferences are often tied specifically to holidays; I don’t see them permanently replacing traditional grocery buying habits for everyday meals.
For traditional grocers, the rise of restaurant/meal-kit Thanksgiving options is both a challenge and an opportunity. On the negative side, they risk losing a meaningful portion of one of the busiest seasonal shopping windows — a window often marked by high-ticket items, cross-category shopping, and incremental basket lift. On the positive side, they can respond by embracing the same value drivers: convenience, ease, and ready-to-heat or partially prepared holiday meal kits. Grocers that adapt quickly could retain relevance to consumers whose time pressures and lifestyle choices favor convenience, without giving up their core business.
In short, holiday meal services will likely chip away at some of the grocers’ share during Thanksgiving, but I don’t view it as a fundamental shift in grocery shopping as a whole. Holiday meals are exceptions — special occasions, not everyday norms. Grocers that recognize that and evolve their seasonal offerings accordingly will likely preserve their core customer relationships, while also capturing some of the convenience-seeking demand.
There are plenty of people who think that the best part of Thanksgiving is the leftovers, and that’s an argument for home cooking.
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More restaurants than ever offer catering and prepared food for Thanksgiving. It is part of a broader trend of restaurants trying to grab share of the at-home market, whether through takeout, selling general provisions, or providing catering. This isn’t completely new, but it accelerated during the pandemic and continues to proliferate. That said, foodservice prices are up sharply, more so than grocery prices – and this dampens consumer interest. And the grocery opportunity in Thanksgiving remains huge.
Well, yes, theoretically every store that opens “shrinks the opportunity” for every other store; but of course this is true for every store – every grocery affects every other grocery, too – and. honestly! – what a hopelessly zero-sum view of things: let’s have stores contribute value where-, and however they can, and not fixate on a retail version of Spy vs. Spy.
I think it’s likely that restaurants and meal-kit providers will continue to capture a growing share of Thanksgiving meal dollars — but this doesn’t necessarily portend a long-term shift away from grocers. The appeal of fully-cooked or semi-prepared holiday meals is compelling: convenience, time savings, and the ability to relieve stress during peak cooking demand. For many consumers, especially younger families or busy professionals, the value of not spending hours shopping, prepping, and cooking outweighs the price premium. That said, these preferences are often tied specifically to holidays; I don’t see them permanently replacing traditional grocery buying habits for everyday meals.
For traditional grocers, the rise of restaurant/meal-kit Thanksgiving options is both a challenge and an opportunity. On the negative side, they risk losing a meaningful portion of one of the busiest seasonal shopping windows — a window often marked by high-ticket items, cross-category shopping, and incremental basket lift. On the positive side, they can respond by embracing the same value drivers: convenience, ease, and ready-to-heat or partially prepared holiday meal kits. Grocers that adapt quickly could retain relevance to consumers whose time pressures and lifestyle choices favor convenience, without giving up their core business.
In short, holiday meal services will likely chip away at some of the grocers’ share during Thanksgiving, but I don’t view it as a fundamental shift in grocery shopping as a whole. Holiday meals are exceptions — special occasions, not everyday norms. Grocers that recognize that and evolve their seasonal offerings accordingly will likely preserve their core customer relationships, while also capturing some of the convenience-seeking demand.
There are plenty of people who think that the best part of Thanksgiving is the leftovers, and that’s an argument for home cooking.