January 16, 2026
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What’s the Future Look Like for Meal Kit Brands?
Meal kits are having a bit of a moment, according to CNET’s Corin Cesaric. The meal kit industry as a whole was pegged at a total valuation of nearly $26 billion in 2024, per Straits Research, but is expected to reach heights of almost $114 billion by 2033. That same report flagged a few primary cornerstones of the meal kit business’s success from relatively modest beginnings: the kits are perceived as a healthier option versus dining out, are seen as reducing food waste, and are credited with both being easy to prepare and offering a strong value proposition.
With Blue Apron, HelloFresh, Gobble, and EveryPlate being joined by several other up-and-comers, competition in the space is fierce — and so are the pressures and challenges facing both new and established players.
Meal Kit Subscription Fatigue: Real or Imagined?
Per a recent report issued by Gabriela Barkho of Modern Retail, “subscription fatigue” is setting in when it comes to the most loyal customers of meal kit subscription boxes — and some companies are responding.
“Meal delivery companies are loosening up when it comes to subscriptions,” Barkho began.
“Last year, Blue Apron made a major change when it did away with weekly subscription boxes, which came after it was acquired by Wonder in 2023. Now, smaller companies are following suit… In a recent report from SupportNinja, where someone ‘mystery shopped’ from four different meal delivery services, Moelter noted one common friction point that showed up repeatedly. When a customer tries to pause, skip or cancel a delivery after a delayed box or an unexpected menu swap, they are often met with tight cutoff windows, unclear brand policies and slow support,” she added.
And while “Autoship & Save” is still an option for Blue Apron loyalists who prefer the old model, the a la carte approach seems to be gaining traction as customers demand more flexibility — or a “try before you buy” dip in the pool before committing to a subscription. Smaller participants in the segment, including smoothie specialists Daily Harvest and Indian cuisine company The Cumin Club, endorsed this significant change to the model.
“Being able to order one time means the addressable market increases significantly, especially for ethnic cuisine,” said Cumin Club co-founder Ragoth Bala, whose company pulls in $5 million in yearly revenue and is growing 50% YoY.
“Where we have landed is essentially that subscription fatigue is real. Our customers or would-be customers wrote to us saying, ‘I would really love to try this but I hate subscriptions,’” Bala continued.
Several meal kit companies are also moving beyond DTC sales to cultivate partnerships with retailers. The Cumin Club has dealings with Amazon, Walmart, and Sprouts, Daily Harvest with Target and Kroger, and Blue Apron is selling on platforms such as Misfits Market.
Meal Kit Subscriptions and the Prevalence of (Perhaps) False Advertising
On the other hand, some problems persisting from the earliest days of meal kit subscriptions remain. As Truth in Advertising (TINA) detailed, a number of regulators have targeted HelloFresh over perceived “deceptive marketing” claims tied to “free” meals, in addition to “shady subscription practices.”
“In November 2025, Oregon’s Department of Justice reached a settlement with HelloFresh after an investigation found the company advertised ‘free’ meals that were never free. In reality, the free meals – advertised in promotions that used language such as ’10 free meals’ – were discounts spread across multiple weekly orders that required consumers to spend hundreds of dollars to receive the full promotion,” TINA reported, pivoting also to note two other legal decisions which cast the same “free meals” offer, as well as sly auto-renewal practices, into light.
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Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
What is the most obvious headwind holding back further, or faster, growth in the meal kit space? What is this category missing?
Do you agree that the subscription model is creating fatigue among existing (or potential) meal kit service customers? Why or why not?
Which meal kit brands are most impressive, in your view? How about least impressive?
Poll
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Meal kits can feel more like optional subscriptions than essentials which can make them one of the first things consumers pause when budgets tighten. In any economic headwind, flexibility and value will matter more than loyalty and cheaper, simpler options usually win.
Predictions about market value – almost a decade out no less! – I feel have little value. What’s of interest to me is how the sector is doing right now; the fact that there’s little or no mention of things like…oh, revenue, I find telling. My prediction for the future is a repeat of the past: lot’s of “waiting for a takeoff”.
As a consumer, I have officially broken up with meal kit subscriptions. I’ve tried them, wrestled with making changes, and discovered that the “easy” recipes aren’t always that easy. I like to cook and I don’t mind grocery shopping, so I ditched them all. When I’m in a hurry, my local grocers offer ready-made meals and kits that actually are easy to use.
Can we talk about subscriptions in general? They’re out of control. There’s a subscription for everything now, and worse, now we have sneaky, hidden subscriptions. This week I was hit with a $39.99 monthly charge for a “VIP” program after ordering a single item. The explanation? I accepted free shipping and was automatically enrolled. This is the second time this has happened to me. At this point, “subscribe and save” feels a lot like “surprise and pay.”
The most obvious headwind holding back faster growth in the meal kit space is the category’s value perception versus effort equation, especially when consumers can buy groceries and ready-to-eat options that are cheaper and often more convenient. Meal kits aren’t missing demand for better food — they’re missing a delivery model that feels flexible, affordable, and low-commitment for today’s time-starved but price-savvy shopper. Many meal kit services still default to weekly subscriptions with minimum purchase thresholds, which can feel restrictive and costly compared to the on-demand ordering habits consumers have grown accustomed to with grocery apps, quick delivery, and ready meals. Until the category evolves beyond subscription rigidity to more a la carte, just-in-time, value-aligned choices, growth will continue to be incremental rather than explosive.
I do agree that subscription fatigue is real for meal kit customers. A model that makes sense for someone planning every dinner week months in advance doesn’t match the fluid, context-driven way many households shop today. People want control — to skip, swap, scale up or down, or mix meal kits into their broader grocery basket without penalties or multi-week commitments. As consumers balance work, family, and lifestyle logistics, they increasingly view rigid subscriptions as another chore, not a convenience. The winners will be those that unbundle the subscription, offer more pay-as-you-go options, and align pricing with perceived time-and-cost savings that rival buying ingredients and cooking on their own.
In terms of brands that impress versus those that struggle, the ones worth watching are those that meet consumers where they are with flexibility, clear value, and taste leadership — whether that’s through retail partnerships, marketplace listings, or hybrid models that integrate with grocery shopping trips. Those that cling to classic weekly subscriptions without addressing cost, convenience, and personalization will be the least impressive in a landscape where flexible choice and seamless integration win. In short, meal kits have a future — particularly as part of a broader omnichannel food-at-home ecosystem — but to accelerate growth they need to evolve past subscription fatigue and be closer to the way modern shoppers actually live and shop.
Meal kits have a place. But ones where the subscriptions are too strict are an utter pain. Most consumers want flexibility and the capability to respond to sudden changes in plans. I also think that as traditional grocers offer more pre-prepared foods and expand their fast-delivery capabilities, this will erode the meal kit market.
The primary headwind is declining trust driven by rigid, opaque subscription models that no longer align with modern consumer expectations. The category needs retailer-like flexibility transparent pricing, easy trial, and frictionless pause or re-entry to restore confidence, expand the addressable market, and sustain growth.
Anything with the word “subscription” and I run the other way. The more flexibility, the less likely I am to be concerned about it though. I do think, however, that moving away from subscriptions is attractive to many people and is a differentiator now. Incorporating meal kits with retailers seems a smart move.
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Meal kits can feel more like optional subscriptions than essentials which can make them one of the first things consumers pause when budgets tighten. In any economic headwind, flexibility and value will matter more than loyalty and cheaper, simpler options usually win.
Predictions about market value – almost a decade out no less! – I feel have little value. What’s of interest to me is how the sector is doing right now; the fact that there’s little or no mention of things like…oh, revenue, I find telling. My prediction for the future is a repeat of the past: lot’s of “waiting for a takeoff”.
As a consumer, I have officially broken up with meal kit subscriptions. I’ve tried them, wrestled with making changes, and discovered that the “easy” recipes aren’t always that easy. I like to cook and I don’t mind grocery shopping, so I ditched them all. When I’m in a hurry, my local grocers offer ready-made meals and kits that actually are easy to use.
Can we talk about subscriptions in general? They’re out of control. There’s a subscription for everything now, and worse, now we have sneaky, hidden subscriptions. This week I was hit with a $39.99 monthly charge for a “VIP” program after ordering a single item. The explanation? I accepted free shipping and was automatically enrolled. This is the second time this has happened to me. At this point, “subscribe and save” feels a lot like “surprise and pay.”
The most obvious headwind holding back faster growth in the meal kit space is the category’s value perception versus effort equation, especially when consumers can buy groceries and ready-to-eat options that are cheaper and often more convenient. Meal kits aren’t missing demand for better food — they’re missing a delivery model that feels flexible, affordable, and low-commitment for today’s time-starved but price-savvy shopper. Many meal kit services still default to weekly subscriptions with minimum purchase thresholds, which can feel restrictive and costly compared to the on-demand ordering habits consumers have grown accustomed to with grocery apps, quick delivery, and ready meals. Until the category evolves beyond subscription rigidity to more a la carte, just-in-time, value-aligned choices, growth will continue to be incremental rather than explosive.
I do agree that subscription fatigue is real for meal kit customers. A model that makes sense for someone planning every dinner week months in advance doesn’t match the fluid, context-driven way many households shop today. People want control — to skip, swap, scale up or down, or mix meal kits into their broader grocery basket without penalties or multi-week commitments. As consumers balance work, family, and lifestyle logistics, they increasingly view rigid subscriptions as another chore, not a convenience. The winners will be those that unbundle the subscription, offer more pay-as-you-go options, and align pricing with perceived time-and-cost savings that rival buying ingredients and cooking on their own.
In terms of brands that impress versus those that struggle, the ones worth watching are those that meet consumers where they are with flexibility, clear value, and taste leadership — whether that’s through retail partnerships, marketplace listings, or hybrid models that integrate with grocery shopping trips. Those that cling to classic weekly subscriptions without addressing cost, convenience, and personalization will be the least impressive in a landscape where flexible choice and seamless integration win. In short, meal kits have a future — particularly as part of a broader omnichannel food-at-home ecosystem — but to accelerate growth they need to evolve past subscription fatigue and be closer to the way modern shoppers actually live and shop.
Meal kits have a place. But ones where the subscriptions are too strict are an utter pain. Most consumers want flexibility and the capability to respond to sudden changes in plans. I also think that as traditional grocers offer more pre-prepared foods and expand their fast-delivery capabilities, this will erode the meal kit market.
The primary headwind is declining trust driven by rigid, opaque subscription models that no longer align with modern consumer expectations. The category needs retailer-like flexibility transparent pricing, easy trial, and frictionless pause or re-entry to restore confidence, expand the addressable market, and sustain growth.
Anything with the word “subscription” and I run the other way. The more flexibility, the less likely I am to be concerned about it though. I do think, however, that moving away from subscriptions is attractive to many people and is a differentiator now. Incorporating meal kits with retailers seems a smart move.