Cocoa Price Surge Drives Valentine’s Day Chocolate Cost Upwards in 2025 (and Beyond)

Those smitten with the love bug this Valentine’s Day may find themselves — or have found themselves, if they’re early shoppers — paying more at the checkout counter for chocolate treats this year and in the years to come.

According to FOX Business, severe production challenges facing the cocoa supply have, in turn, caused the price of cocoa beans requisite in the crafting of chocolate to skyrocket. Key cocoa-producing regions in West Africa have been stymied by unusually high temperatures posing problems for crop development, and the resurgence of cocoa swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) has also thrown a wrench into the gears for many cocoa farmers.

As a result, according to data cited from The International Cocoa Organization, cocoa production in 2023-2024 was to fall by 13.1% year over year, marking the third year of production decline. More concretely, the cost of cocoa has surged by more than 355% from prices set in January 2023 — and for the time frame spanning January 2024 to December 2024, prices hiked upward by over 143%, peaking at a record price of $12,565 per metric ton.

Terry Andrianos, one of the owners of Hercules Candies in East Syracuse, told WSYR-TV of the struggles facing the supply chain.

“Between droughts, floods, winds, it affects the cocoa trees, they’re quite fragile,” Andrianos said. “And that all adds up to a chocolate shortage and price increases.”

Chocolate Prices Increased in Advance of Valentine’s Day, Though Experts Can’t Agree on Precisely How Much

Ray Bitzel Jr., the owner of Bitzel’s Chocolate, an artisan chocolate factory in Suwanee, Georgia, indicated that prices have seen a staggering climb over the course of the past year and a half.

“Chocolate prices from 18 months ago have basically nearly doubled,” Bitzel told FOX Business. “It’s that bad.”

Meanwhile, Axios pulled statistics from Datasembly, which suggested that the price of chocolate had increased by 5.3% versus this same time in 2024.

Perhaps the reason for the discrepancy is the front-loading of supplies by manufacturers, as David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told Axios.

“Chocolate is going to be more expensive, as nearly all major candy manufacturers have indicated they will have to raise their prices,” Branch said.

“[However], many large manufacturers buy cocoa beans nearly a year in advance, so the cost of this Valentine’s Day treats won’t reflect current cocoa prices,” he added.

Sweets, including chocolate, appear to be the most popular gift during Valentine’s Day celebrations, according to both National Retail Federation and Ferrero surveys.

NRF data suggested that 56% of those observing the holiday were set to pick up candy for their sweetheart, while a Ferrero poll indicated that 66% of respondents prefer chocolate over any other treat — including cookies or candy — and that 64% of women believe it is a stress-free way to celebrate Valentine’s Day.