US Retail Sales Growth To Slow in 2026: Bain & Co.

Bain & Co. projects that U.S. retails sales will slow to 3.5% growth in 2026. This statistic can be compared to the 4% growth exhibited by the American retail sector in 2025. Rising unemployment, persistent strain on cash-strapped consumers due to inflation and a lack of consumer confidence, and slowing labor supply growth are some of the named headwinds (via Chain Store Age).