Will 2025 Back-to-School Shopping Spend Actually Top Last Year's Results?

It may seem a bit early to be talking about back-to-school shopping already, with many K-12 students just wrapping up their school year. However, back-to-school spending has been a hot topic on the retail radar as of late, with many outlets reporting a likelihood that spending will top 2024's results — although the looming tariff situation and other macroeconomic pressures could see a reversal of fortunes.

As Forbes recently reported, it appears that the results could be quite close when it comes to a comparison between last year's spend and this year's.

Citing data from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the outlet suggested that almost three-quarters of U.S. families expect to spend an equal amount, or slightly more, on BTS shopping in 2025 versus the year prior. That figure was reinforced by a SuperAwesome survey (via KidScreen) of more than 1,000 kids and parents across the U.S., which predicts an average spend of $455 in 2025, up a modest $11 from 2024, generating an expected $84 billion in sales stateside.

Value Is Top of Mind for Parents Engaging in Back-to-School Shopping This Year

It may come as no surprise that value was one of the primary concepts explored by the PwC survey — the first of its kind, although the firm now expects to conduct one on an annual basis — on the BTS shopping front, despite the fact that about one-third of respondents said they would be increasing their budget this year.

“We’re finding such a value-oriented consumer right now, given inflation, given the uncertainty of the economy,” said PwC Global Retail Leader Kelly Pedersen. “So that’s frankly no surprise that looking for value is super important right now.”

Notably, those surveyed said they planned to save by restricting purchases to sale items (37%), front-loading their shopping (37%), and reusing items that were still in good condition. The first and third line entries on this list could lead to a reduction in revenue for retailers banking big on the BTS season.

Other posed savings ideas were also a mixed bag for retailers, with respondents planning to buy more store-brand products (22%) — a definite notch in the plus column — but also buying more secondhand or thrifted items (18%) and engaging in layaway plans (10%).

Also interesting: Tech purchases and apparel are slated to account for the biggest price tags bagged for the season, and one-in-five parents (20%) are planning to engage with AI tools to find the best back-to-school bargains.

Parents are now aware that "using an AI agent to go find the best deal is possible, and I think consumers are turning to that more and more,” according to Pedersen.

Tariffs Remain a Factor for Parents This BTS Season

With the aforementioned studies showing only a minor increase in projected spend this year — and eMarketer suggesting that back-to-school spending will slow its rate of growth this year, although it maintains an expectation of an overall spending increase in total — the actual result when the dust settles could vary greatly, particularly if economic pressures on U.S. consumers intensify.

Wunderkind's tariff survey delivered a breakdown emphasizing the continuing impacts of tariffs and inflation on the season, the second-largest shopping season behind the holidays.

"Here’s the top line: 29% of U.S. consumers expect to spend less this back-to-school season due to tariffs or inflation. Over a third (34%) are focusing more on discounts, and 28% plan to stick strictly to the essentials," Wunderkind suggested.

"Translation? This isn’t just cautious budgeting, it’s a reshaping of shopping behavior. Consumers aren’t just hitting pause on the extra pair of sneakers, they’re questioning the whole cart. 15% are delaying big-ticket items, and 31% plan no change… yet, which means there’s still room to influence decisions," the marketing firm added.