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With Black Friday just around the bend -- falling on Nov. 28 this year -- retailers in all sectors are hoping to bring in as much spend as possible, locking it up before the holiday season begins in earnest throughout December.
According to data provided by BCG in its most recent "Consumers Are Rewriting the Rules of Year-End Sales Events" report, Black Friday could provide an array of interesting data to analysts and retail enterprises alike this time around, with estimates outlined by BCG showing action surrounding GenAI shopping tools, an overall uptick in consumer shopping intention for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and other notable data points.
"On the macro level, although persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty—from ongoing conflicts to shifts in tariff policies—continue to affect consumer sentiment, there are early signs of stabilization. Consumers remain cautious, with 81% concerned about recent price increases for essentials and 71% wondering if tariffs and duties will raise prices. Nearly half say they have reduced non-essential spending and are monitoring prices more closely in recent months," the report authors wrote.
"Yet, compared with 2024, shoppers are displaying slightly less conservative behavior. While many continue to trade down—with 38% buying more at discounters, 35% choosing more affordable brands, and 28% purchasing more private-label goods in the three months prior to the survey—these percentages are slightly lower than those we found in 2024. And shoppers in many markets report smaller net spending reductions in the previous six months compared to our 2024 results, particularly for furniture, jewelry, and clothing, which points to a nascent recovery in consumer confidence and willingness to spend," they added.
Black Friday 2025: Consumers Still Interested, GenAI Shopping Becomes Reality
Other key takeaways brought forward by BCG's findings:
- Cash-strapped shoppers are turning to year-end sales events such as Black Friday as important, signaling still subdued but slightly improving consumer sentiment. A full 83% of U.S. shoppers signaled intent to spend during Black Friday or Cyber Monday this year, up more than 4% versus 2024's figures.
- While essential spending and gifting are retaining relative strength (though both categories shed some percentage points versus year-prior intent levels among global consumers), self-oriented and higher-cost or luxury purchases were seen picking up the slack.
- In the United States, more than half of all consumers polled (51% in total) had either already used GenAI in their shopping journeys (23%) or had not so far -- but were planning to use it during the upcoming sales events (28%). This represents a 16% increase over 2024's statistic.
- Globally speaking, the vast percentage of deal-hunters are looking for a percentage-off discount, with 30% being the threshold most shoppers consider adequate. Free or reduced shipping costs took second place on the savvy shopper podium, with "gamified or conditional offers" lagging far behind at just 6% of support. No strings, or few strings, attached seems to be the pitch most consumers are looking for.
"Year-end sales events have become a must-win global retail moment. These key findings therefore carry important implications for retailers—both for success in the medium term and for building a sustained competitive advantage across future year-end sales event seasons. Success will depend on actions that range from engaging early and defending visibility in AI-driven shopping ecosystems to communicating clearly and delivering on promised discounts and value propositions," the report stated in conclusion, suggesting that fairness, credibility, AI-driven engagement, loyalty programs, and accurate fulfillment -- and simple returns -- were among the cornerstones of retail success this Black Friday and beyond.