Through a special arrangement, presented here for discussion is an excerpt from an article from the Joel Rubinson on Marketing Research blog.
Book authors, trade journal reporters, consulting firms, and influential bloggers can fill marketing teams' heads with some really bad ideas. As these stories reverberate around the echo chamber, they seem to confirm each other and voila, a wrong belief becomes entrenched. Five or ten years ago, pundits' predictions about TV's demise were wrong. Today, current scare tactics about showrooming appear equally flawed.
Usually, this starts with a bad marketing research mistake turned into a compelling narrative. The two classes of marketing research mistakes I want to focus on here are:
- Confusing incidence with market share
- Asking questions that people cannot answer
Confusing Incidence With Market Share
The incidence of people who ever engage in a disruptive activity can really scare marketers. For example, looking at the percent of people who watch video online or watch timeshifted TV on their DVR and presumably fast forward through commercials led to predictions of TV's demise. However, looking at SHARE of viewing minutes tells a completely different story. A Nielsen cross platform report in Q1, 2011 shows the incidence of watching shows on a timeshifted basis was about a third of TV viewers but only 6 percent of viewing minutes. And while half watched video on the Internet, it accounted for less that 5 percent of minutes. As with food, light snacks rarely replace full meals.
In the same vein, anxiety around showrooming usage has occurred with studies such as one by comScore in April 2012 that showed 35 percent of respondents claim they have showroomed. However, how MUCH are they doing this? A joint study by IDC and Onavo reports that key price comparison shopping apps are only used by 1-3 percent of iPhone users an average of two times per month. A study reported on in Mediapost adds that about half of showrooming leads to purchases in that same retailer physically or online. Incidence of showrooming? Scary! Share of purchases diverted by showrooming? Still really low single digits.
Asking Questions People Cannot Answer
At the same time, warnings around TV's demise were supported by surveys of people underestimating their daily TV viewing hours, overestimating their Internet time, and also overestimating their willingness to view TV ads. (Asking someone whether commercials are annoying naturally tilts negative.)
On the showrooming side, one of the worst marketing research abuses I have seen, supporting that a tsunami of showrooming was coming, was reported on in Mediapost where the study asked consumers about retailing practices they expect to see by 2020. Really? People are concerned about stretching their food dollars to the next paycheck and marketers are abdicating their responsibilities for directing a company's future by just asking consumers straight out about showrooming in 2020? See how one bad story can reinforce the other in the echo chamber?
This blog is not an indictment of marketing research. In fact, it is the opposite; it is a statement of the importance of basing marketing beliefs on grounded insights from marketing research executed in a world class way. Let us shift marketing research back to the professionals and let's not break some simple rules.