Will Consumers See Price Relief From Major Retailers as Tariff Refunds Roll Out?

Following a Supreme Court ruling which deemed President Donald Trump’s tariffs — ordered under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — unlawful, a court declaration from Brandon Lord, director of the Office of Trade for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, indicated the government has taken in about $85 billion in potential and certified refunds for processing.

As Melissa Daniels reported for Modern Retail, $20.6 billion in refunds have so far been sent to the Treasury for disbursement, with ~$166 billion still owed to importers more broadly.

The operational execution of the tariff refunds thus far has been imperfect, as Daniels underscored, with the CBP’s Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system impressing some with its efficiency while stymieing others with problems. Within Lord’s declaration, the following notes were pulled to the fore:

• In total, CBP is in receipt of more than 157,400 declarations from importers and respective brokers. Of these, approximately 108,760 have been judged valid, and most of the remainder facing issues tied to potentially mismatched file numbers, entry numbers, or template problems. Further, nearly 4,200 refunds have not been sent to Treasury for processing as a result of missing account info.
• Valid declarations so far encompass over 15.8 million tariff entries.

Confusion Abound as Tariff Refunds Face New Legal Challenges and Increased Shopper Scrutiny on Retailers

There is bound to be a great degree of confusion — arguably, the entire process has been rife with the same — as on May 29 Trump’s Department of Justice signaled intent to appeal a federal judge’s order allowing all companies which paid tariffs to seek refunds, rather than only those which had filed suit. Beyond that, several retailers — including Costco, Amazon, Nike, and IKEA — are facing their own lawsuits from shoppers seeking direct compensation for prices paid for tariffed goods.

As far as Costco goes, CEO Ron Vachris has stated that the warehouse club intends to make good on the portion of the costs downloaded to customers tied to tariffs, but specifics remain scarce with so many elements in play.

“How much we return and when depends on a variety of factors, including how much refund money we receive and when it arrives, as well as developments in the lawsuit filed against the company regarding the return process,” Vachris said.

Walmart CEO John Furner was equally cagey in terms of delivering hard promises on tariff refunds concerning its customer base, but did indicate interest in delivering some form of price relief.

“We would definitely bias and try to prioritize price investment for that, given what we’ve seen, both in terms of the pressure on consumers from fuel prices and, importantly, the retention and the share gains we’ve had. We think the single best return we can have on a dollar capital right now is to invest in the customer and invest in price,” he said.

A previous piece of Modern Retail reportage from Julia Waldow suggested that “shoppers, who have been squeezed by everything from tariffs to rising gas prices over the past year, are unlikely to see a large piece of those refunds.”

“Some brands, for example, paid higher shipping costs to get products in before tariff deadlines hit. Raw material costs also rose throughout 2025. To avoid raising prices, some brands dipped into their cash reserves. Others took out loans to pay for tariffs. Growth initiatives, like hiring additional employees or increasing marketing budgets, were also put on pause. Put together, it means that most brands can’t simply give whatever money they receive from the government back to shoppers,” Waldow concluded.