How Will the Shorter Season Disrupt Holiday Selling?

This year, a late Thanksgiving leaves only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, five fewer shopping days compared to last year. The tighter “official” holiday schedule — the shortest in five years — holds implications for the promotional calendar, shipping logistics, and the in-store holiday rush.

The shorter holiday season has been cited as a factor behind holiday sales events arriving in early October from Walmart, Amazon, Target, and Best Buy. Distractions from the presidential election also encouraged earlier deals.

“The holiday season really starts October 1,” Megan Gaffey, senior director of publisher partnerships at Rakuten Advertising, said on a recent eMarketer Tech-Talk webinar. “And you see a lot of advertisers launch Black Friday promotions the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to get ahead of the noise.”

Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance, told CNBC that the later Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year “will force the retailer’s hand to be pretty promotional in November.”

Saks’ latest Luxury Pulse survey concluded that this year’s contracted holiday shopping season is likewise leading to earlier purchases. The survey showed that 70% of luxury consumers plan to start their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving this year, a 14 percentage point increase from last year.

On delivery, the compressed time period will likely drive up shipping costs and increase the risks of delays. Juan Meisel, founder and CEO of Grip Shipping, told Retail Brew, “What that means is that you actually have to ship the exact same amount of product, or maybe a little bit less, in five days less.”

Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said on a reporter’s call in October that the shortened selling season “has the potential to impact consumers' expectations about convenience, and again, their expectations that they can get something, you know, if not in the next two hours, certainly in the next two days."

Carol Tome, UPS’ CEO, noted on the carrier’s third-quarter analyst call that with only 17 shipping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, forecasters and some customers are indicating that consumers are more likely to head to stores to complete their holiday purchases.

Jeff Howie, CFO at Williams Sonoma, noted on the home décor retailer’s second-quarter analyst call that the Christmas holiday moving from Monday to Wednesday likely favors e-commerce sales. He said, “Our mix is 66% e-commerce. That is actually a good guide for us.”

However, Howie also noted that squeezing the traditional holiday selling timeline across 27 days versus 32 last year heightens overall pressures to deliver. The CFO said, “Each day has to work harder, especially at retail.”

In the 2019 season, which also faced only 27 days between the two holidays, Target spent an extra $50 million more on payroll during the holiday quarter versus the prior year in anticipation of less of the typical in-store lull that typically occurs between the rushes of Black Friday weekend and the final weekend before Christmas.

Deb Mayfield, owner of Country Christmas Loft in Shelburne, Vermont, told NBC5, "Having a shorter span of time just makes it that much more important that we have everything organized here at the store.”