How Will Valentine’s Day Fare for Retail in 2024?

Valentine's Day sales are being predicted, and while some believe consumer spending will fall flat, the National Retail Federation's (NRF) data concludes that nearly $14.2 billion of total spending on significant others is expected this year.

The NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics have released their annual survey revealing the spending scale and gift preferences for this important holiday. As a result, retailers are gearing up to cater to customers' needs this year, offering a broad range of meaningful and memorable gifts to help express their feelings.

The survey, conducted in the first week of January, collected responses from 8,329 adults about their Valentine’s Day shopping plans. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay stated, "With consumers prioritizing their spouse or significant other this year, retailers expect to see a shift in spending for certain gifting categories."

Candy tops the list of preferred gifts at 57%, followed by greeting cards at 40% and flowers at 39%. More than a third of the surveyed individuals are opting for a special evening out (32%), while others are choosing jewelry (22%), clothing (21%), or gift cards (19%). The spending on jewelry, flowers, clothing, and evening outings is predicted to break previous records, with jewelry alone expected to rake in $6.4 billion.

About 53% of respondents plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day, which aligns with last year's statistics. The total Valentine's Day expenditure is forecasted to remain steady at $25.8 billion, making it the third highest in the survey's history after last year's $25.9 billion and 2020's record of $27.4 billion. Notably, people ages 25-34 are the most inclined to celebrate the occasion. Social media has already shown the frenzy that occurred for limited-edition Valentine's Day Stanley cups.

On average, customers are expected to spend $185.81 each, which shows a slight increase from the past five years. Unlike last year, when people used Valentine's Day to appreciate all significant relationships, this year they are focusing more on their romantic partners. NRF's expected total spending on significant others is the highest it's been in the history of the survey.

For those not celebrating the romantic side of Valentine’s Day, 29% still plan to commemorate the day in their own ways. Some will treat themselves, while others will arrange a gathering with single friends or family members.

Furthermore, Insider Intelligence states that "60% of US adults believe the holiday is for both romantic and platonic relationships, according to YouGov. Brands should see that as an opportunity to reach young, single, or not-quite-committed consumers in creative ways this Valentine’s Day."

Online shopping continues to grow in popularity for Valentine’s Day gift seekers, with 40% choosing this method, a rise from 35% last year. However, traditional shopping isn’t being left behind, with consumers still planning to visit department stores (33%), discount stores (31%), and florists (17%).

Interestingly, while jewelry is where most of the money is going, the most popular gifts remain classic candy and greeting cards. Diamonds in particular will be an interesting point since more supply can be moved, but overall sales might be lower due to the reduced cost of synthetic diamonds. Moreover, one-third of consumers are still fascinated by experiential gifts.

The number of people in the U.S. observing the holiday has declined by 10 percentage points over the past 15 years to 53%. Despite this, almost one-third of those not officially celebrating Valentine's Day still intend to acknowledge the day somehow, providing opportunities for brands to engage these consumers.

Perhaps retailers and businesses are not taking full advantage of the holiday for their consumers. Social holidays like Valentine's Day and Halloween can be leveraged to benefit businesses. Websites can be updated with festive landing pages or holiday-themed games to attract more traffic. Social media platforms can be used to engage users by posting themed content and using relevant hashtags. Regular emailing strategies can be enhanced by including holiday wishes and subtly highlighting services or promotions. These occasions also present opportunities to give back by offering small gifts or discounts to clients or appreciating employees with treats.