According to Bizrate Insights, mobile website purchases will increase by as much as 68 percent in 2016. The peak volume during the 2016 holiday season is projected to reach as high as 42 percent in November, representing nearly half of all online orders.
Not surprisingly, the gains are expected to be driven by smartphones. Phones will represent 33 percent of all online orders in November, predicts Bizrate. Meanwhile, in the absence of meaningful innovation, tablet purchases will stagnate or decline slightly.
Data for the study was collected from over 540 million online purchases over the Bizrate Insights Network during July 1, 2013 through Dec. 13, 2015. The data does not include in-app purchases.
While estimating that only 1.6 percent of retail sales in the U.S. occurred on smartphones in 2015, eMarketer likewise predicted, "That's going to change in 2016, thanks to moves by the biggest digital companies — Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon — to simplify the transition from mobile shopping to mobile buying."
The projections come after Adobe found smartphones generated a record 22 percent share of all online sales on Black Friday, 70 percent more than in 2014. Tablets drove 15 percent of online sales on Black Friday, a two percent decrease year-over-year. For Cyber Monday, IBM found smartphones drove 15.2 percent of online sales, up nearly 70 percent over 2014 and exceeding tablets at 12.4 percent.
Bigger screens, improved functionality and emerging mobile pay options are among the factors expected to support smartphone purchases.
Hayley Silver, VP, Bizrate Insight, a division of retail marketing vendor Connexity (formerly Shopzilla), suggested that retailers prioritize making it easy for consumers to shop their websites via mobile devices over making changes to desktops and apps in 2016. Ms. Silver said, "Considering the percentage of mobile website purchases projected for 2016, focusing exclusively on your in-app experience may alienate new visitors, thwart conversion or damage your brand."