Are Restaurants Shrinking the Thanksgiving Opportunity for Grocers?

Escaping the pressure of Thanksgiving meal preparation and dry-turkey risks, many U.S. households are shifting to catered meals — increasingly from restaurants — perhaps at the expense of grocery sales.

A recent survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers from Popmenu, a provider of online ordering and marketing software for restaurants, found 53% plan to order the whole meal — or certain dishes pre-made — from restaurants for Thanksgiving dinner. This figure is up from 37% in 2024, and 32% in 2023. Of the 53%, 7% plan to order meal kits from restaurants to cook at home.

Asked why they were turning to restaurants for all, or part, of their Thanksgiving meal, the top reasons cited were:

• 63% want to enjoy the holiday and not worry about cooking.
• 40% believe it’s cheaper, or costs about the same, as buying the ingredients and cooking at home.
• 35% don’t want the hassle of buying the ingredients and cooking themselves.
• 26% would rather have a professionally cooked meal.
• 19% are too busy to prepare a meal or dish.

“What we hear from Thanksgiving hosts every year is a growing desire to spend more time visiting with guests and enjoying the holiday than sweating in the kitchen,” said Brendan Sweeney, CEO and co-founder of Popmenu, in a statement.

Only 5% expect to dine in person at a restaurant on Thanksgiving, same as the prior year.

Research Suggests Purchasing Thanksgiving Dinner Is on the Upswing

Technomic research from 2023 identified a similar trend. The survey found 23% of U.S. adults are likely to purchase a complete, ready-made Thanksgiving meal for pickup from a restaurant, while 22% may roast the bird themselves — but still rely on restaurants for parts of the meal.

Grocers — also including Walmart, Target, Costco, Aldi and Amazon — are increasingly offering fully-cooked or meal-kit Thanksgiving options as they capitalize on the prepared foods opportunity. According to FMI’s The Power of Foodservice at Retail 2025 report, 28% of shoppers buy deli-prepared foods from grocers instead of going to a restaurant, up from 12% in 2017.

However, the internet is full of articles promoting pre-made Thanksgiving deals from a variety of non-grocers. These include offerings from food specialists such as Harry & David, HoneyBaked Ham Co., Nueske’s, Omaha Steaks, Goldbelly, and Williams Sonoma.

The biggest competitors appear to be numerous local and chain restaurants. Among those offering pre-cooked Thanksgiving meals are Bob Evans, Cracker Barrel, Denny’s, Buca di Beppo, Morton’s The Steakhouse and Maggiano’s — as well fast food chains including KFC, Popeyes, and Chipotle.

Numerator’s 2025 Q4 Holiday Preview showed more favorable findings around the tradition of preparing and roasting a turkey in the kitchen. Based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. adults, the survey found 85% planning to celebrate Thanksgiving this year, with 56% planning on cooking or baking at home.

Nearly 90% of Thanksgiving celebrators will purchase food for the holiday. Asked where they plan to purchase their Thanksgiving goods, the top spot was nabbed by grocery stores (Kroger, Publix, etc.), cited by 72%; followed by big box stores (Walmart, Costco, Target, etc.), at 54%. Only 6% indicated they planned to buy their Thanksgiving goods from restaurants, bars, or food delivery services, telling a different story from competing studies.