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Is a Retail Sales Boom in the Cards This Year?

Written by Nicholas Morine

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Despite a number of macroeconomic headwinds, U.S. retail spending appears to be picking up a full head of steam in recent months, with February showing outsized growth over even January's optimistic results.

Per the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, February saw total retail sales improve by 0.28% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, or 6.24% unadjusted year-over-year. This can be compared to sales growth of 0.2% month-over-month and 5.72% YoY in January.

"Despite harsh winter weather, consumer spending grew once again in February, supported by continued wage gains and overall low unemployment levels," said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of The National Retail Federation.

“This was the fifth consecutive month that sales rose from the month before, and year-over-year gains were strong. With renewed fighting in the Middle East and its impact on global economies, retailers remain heavily focused on delivering products at competitive prices to value conscious consumers," he added.

When looking at the breakout data on a YoY basis, one thing became immediately apparent -- of the nine categories provided by the Retail Monitor, only building and garden supplies (down 5.75% on a year-over-year basis) showed consistent weakness, down each and every month spanning back to September 2025.

Clothing and accessories (up 11.05%), health and personal care (up 9.33%), food services and drinking places (improving 7.89%), and general merchandise (up 7.77% YoY) exhibited superior sales growth in the February report, although all categories trended upwards with the exception of building and garden supplies.

Other data points pulled from the report included:

  • Clothing and accessories stores performed well in both categories, up the aforementioned 11.05% YoY and a strong 0.66% MoM. The same could be said for health and personal care stores, as well as general merchandise stores.
  • While sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores dipped by 0.27% in terms of retail sales (MoM) in Februaury, their year-over-year performance was much stronger, improving by 6.53% during that time frame.
  • Grocery and beverage stores managed to register a 0.3% MoM improvement in February, as well as a respectable 4.57% uptick YoY.
  • Digital products (typified by things such as eBooks and games) moved up by 0.98% in February month-over-month, and were also up by just over 3% (3.07%) YoY.

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