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Forrester and AlixPartners both came out with gloomy retail forecasts for 2026, citing the impact of elevated interest rates, AI disruption, and a more frugal consumer amid economic unknowns.
Forrester predicted three major U.S. specialty chains will declare bankruptcy in 2026 due to high interest rates, relentless shifts toward online buying, and aggressive competition from mass merchants and value retailers.
“Retailers carrying substantial debt loads face the greatest risk,” said Sucharita Kodali, VP and principal analyst at Forrester, in a blog entry. “But even financially stable specialty chains like Dick’s Sporting Goods and Best Buy cannot rest easy — they must aggressively pursue omnichannel strategies, optimize their physical footprints, and create unique experiential offerings that online competitors cannot replicate. For struggling retailers, the priority must be debt reduction above all else. The message is clear: Specialty retail’s margin for error has vanished entirely.”
Forrester’s predictions also call for retailers to be significantly challenged by the disruption caused by AI chatbots -- and finally commit to ending “generous” e-commerce returns in the face of rising processing costs, supply chain pressures, and margin erosion.
Kodali said, “Success hinges on retailers’ technology investment, operational discipline, and willingness to abandon unsustainable practices that erode margins — while building differentiated experiences that drive loyalty.”
Retail Could Face a Pullback in Spend in 2026
AlixPartners’ 2026 global consumer outlook, entitled “Spending, Disrupted” and based on a survey of more than 13,000 global consumers, forecasts a “sharp” global pullback in spending intentions, including among high-income earners who have been the most resilient spenders in recent years. The consultancy said the projected spending cutbacks reflect “persistent economic uncertainty,” with inflationary pressures and muted wage growth continuing to constrain disposable income across demographics.
“Businesses must recognize that this is not a cyclical dip—it’s a structural reset of value,” said Paul Martin, Global Retail Growth Leader at AlixPartners, in a press release. “Winning in will require sharper value-led pricing, more personalized offers, and customer experiences that justify every incremental dollar.”
Grocery is seen as the only category growing globally, although the gains are expected to be driven by food inflation rather than volume. In the U.S., consumers indicated they plan to scale back across eating and drinking out, discretionary retail, travel, and fitness categories.
Overall, AlixPartners sees a broader shift globally towards more planned, less impulsive buying as households stretch their budgets. AlixPartners said in the study, “For retailers, this means the traditional levers of promotion and ‘newness’ may be less effective. Instead, the focus should shift to loyalty and solutions that help consumers extract more value from what they already own, beyond the immediate period after purchase. Inventory planning and demand forecasting must be attuned to this evolving cadence of consumption.”