While retail casualties such as RadioShack have been grabbing many of the headlines in the early part of 2015, there is plenty of room for optimism when looking ahead to the rest of the year. According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) for 2015 will increase 4.1 percent over last year. Non-store sales will improve between seven and 10 percent over 2014.
"The economy appears to finally have gained some real traction and after a somewhat turbulent 2014, we expect to see continued gains in economic activity in the year ahead," said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF's chief economist, in a statement. "While Americans are benefiting from a pickup in wages and jobs and gains in the U.S. stock market, economic slack has been reduced. We still, however, have a ways to go in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. There are a few wild cards that the retailers will need to keep an eye on, like global economic growth, energy prices and even inflation."
While NRF is predicting a solid 2015 for retailers, the year has gotten off to an unexpectedly slow start. Sales in January (excluding autos, building materials, gas, autos, and restaurants) were up 0.1 percent in January, according to the Commerce Department. Economists were expecting an increase of 0.4 percent.
One of the factors appearing to weigh on retail purchases is the tendency of consumers to put money saved at the pump into their savings rather than spending it in stores. According to Wells Fargo, via USA Today, the average driver saved $67 a month in the fourth quarter as a result of gas prices that fell to an average of $2.23 a gallon.
"It is difficult to understand why individuals are not bumping up their consumption," Wells Fargo senior economist Eugenio Alemán, told USA Today.