Through a special arrangement, presented here for discussion is an excerpt of a current article from Supply Chain Digest.
As most prognosticators acknowledge, predicting the "what" of the future is relatively easy compared to getting the timing close to right. What I am also struggling with is the temptation to paint a picture of a supply chain world in which simply everything is automated - though, indeed, that may very well be a huge component of the future vision.
But here is a question: When do we reach a point in the level of supply chain automation, both physical and informational, that there just is not a whole lot more we can do in terms of supply chain improvements? Is that point likely to come fairly soon, or is it decades away?
Ditto with regard to "integration." It would also be relatively easy to simply paint a vision where we have virtually 100 percent integration both within the enterprise and across trading partners and networks. Much more dicey, of course, would be predicting the timing of this (remembering, for example, the lessons and history of EDI), but even beyond that, does foretelling a world of near perfect automation and integration really tell us much? I don't really think so.
Others have and will continue to take a stab at this. Perhaps the most well known is MIT's Supply Chain 2020 project, started I think in 2003 and initially led by Dr. Larry Lapide. Here we are now just 10 years away from that end date that seemed quite distant back in 2003. Is it time for Supply Chain 2025?
I am not sure if that effort ever resulted in a definitive vision for what supply chain management would be like in 2020. Among the contributions the effort has made, however, is to well articulate that the future supply chain is inextricably linked to what happens in many other spheres, especially political, economic, and regulatory.
Consider just a few questions:
- Do democracy and economic freedom continue their generally steady march forward, leading to the developing economies also continuing to grow in economic might and importance, or do things take a step backward?
- What will China be like 10-15 years from now?
- Will the world's biggest companies become larger and larger, and thus ever more dominant - and thus leading to a supply chain world of a few giants and many indentured suppliers? Or will there be changing regulatory views on this?
- What happens with free trade, nationalism, and protectionism?
- Do we have new energy sources, or will oil be the main fuel 10 years from now and be at $500 a barrel in a "peak oil" world?
You get the idea. My view right now is I can't predict the supply chain of the future without some assumptions about the world of the future, which I thank MIT for pointing out.
Discussion questions: Are we anywhere reaching a point in supply chain performance where there won't be a whole lot of room for improvement? How do you think the retail supply chain of 2020 will be different than today?
[Editor's Note] The author is currently developing a presentation on the supply chain of the future to be delivered at the Material Handling and Logistics Conference in September.