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October 1, 2025

Can Sprouts Reach 1,400 US Stores While ‘Ignoring’ a Huge Cohort of Grocery Shoppers?

During the Groceryshop conference held in Las Vegas, on Sept. 29 CEO Jack Sinclair spoke to the company’s most recent successes as well as its future goals.

According to Modern Retail’s Mitchell Parton, Sinclair highlighted the fact that Sprouts Farmers Market had crossed the 450 stores across 24 states mark in 2025, with optimistic hopes to eventually grow that number to 1,400 stores from coast-to-cost in the United States. And while Sinclair didn’t place a firm timeline on that goal — although Sprouts is slated to open 35 new stores by the end of the year — he did reiterate the grocer’s focus on a subset of grocery shoppers he deemed health-conscious.

“The U.S. food market … is about $1.6 trillion; we’re focusing in on $250 billion of that number,” Sinclair said.

“We’re ignoring a huge chunk of the food industry to focus in on those health enthusiast customers,” he added.

Sprouts may actually have the footing for expansionary plans. The grocer exhibited an 18% increase in net sales (totaling $4.5 billion) in H1 2025, and net income grew from ~$209 million in H1 2024 to ~$314 million in the same time frame this year.

Growth plans are currently limited by the placement of new distribution centers, as Sinclair noted that stores need to be within a 250 mile radius of these distribution centers in order to deliver the fresh produce, which accounts for 20% of the grocer’s sales, to expectant customers.

“We’re trying to go from sea to shining sea,” Sinclair said.

“But there are lots of markets where we [don’t have] distribution capacity, and it’s a little bit chicken [or the] egg. … You have to have density around your distribution center, so that will be an evolution as we work through other states in the country and try and get closer to 50 states than 24,” he added.

Sprouts To Rely on Unique ‘DNA’ and Evolving Product Roster of ‘New, Interesting Ideas’ as Differentiator

If Sprouts wants to succeed in its ambitious growth plan, Sinclair underscored the differentiators as making the difference between itself and the larger competition squeezing shoppers for spend.

For one, the grocer has enjoyed “a really interesting DNA right from the very outset of the company,” with its unique floor plan offering meats up front and produce in the back all taking on a “low-profile” feel to enhance visibility through the entire footprint.

“You look and you can see all the way through,” Sinclair said, emphasizing the longer sight lines and lighting fixtures combining to enhance a sense of openness, rather than anything claustrophobic.

“A lot of grocery stores, all around the world… they’re a little bit like rabbit warrens, where they’re very tall and you get kind of caught in the middle of these aisles. It’s efficient, but it’s a bit restricting,” the CEO added.

Aside from that, Sprouts stands behind its vitamins and supplements categories in opposition to housing an in-store pharmacy, which Sinclair noted the brand decidedly is against including in its locations. The natural health appeal continues to bulk foods (coffee, rice, nuts, dried fruits) and “innovation centers” playing home to a revolving inventory of up-and-coming products which are often new to Sprouts.

“We want to be the place where brands are evolving and developing,” Sinclair said. “They can move on and be in all the other supermarkets two or three years later, but the reality for us is we want to be the founding ground for these new, interesting ideas.”

This could be wise, given that Sinclair noted that, with Sprouts being a strong supplemental destination in addition to traditional grocers, it relies on acting as an alternative — albeit an alternative with a loyal customer base, which is seen as foundational to further expansion.

“Our challenge going forward will be taking that information and taking that data from customers, and starting to be much more personal as people go through this health journey,” Sinclair said of Sprouts’ new-and-growing loyalty program.

“There’s a lot of diversity in how they think: Some people are gluten-free, some people have dairy allergies, some people are vegan, some people are vegetarian, some people want grass-fed beef. How do we take all of that information and become more personalized? How do we make it come alive for our customers in both how we promote and how we communicate?” he concluded.

Discussion Questions

Do you think Sprouts can succeed in its goal of reaching a store count of 1,400 in the U.S. while ‘ignoring a huge chunk of the food industry’? Why or why not?

Are a focus on health-conscious shoppers and a low-profile, unorthodox store layout, and revolving trending products significant enough differentiators for Sprout? What other avenues remain open to further set itself apart from the pack?

Poll

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Neil Saunders

Yes, they can. And their focused strategy is absolutely right. There is very little white space in the average, mass part of the grocery market. It is also a cut-throat arena in terms of price competition and a smaller player like Sprouts would be immediately squeezed. So, their positioning is carefully targeted at a growing part of the market where they can differentiate and stand out. Making themselves a top-up destination is also smart as it allows them more flexibility over where they locate and the amount of potential real estate available for expansion. A lot of this comes from good thinking: Sprouts is very well run and having a savvy CEO that cut his teeth in the very dynamic and super competitive UK grocery market is a big advantage. 

Mohamed Amer, PhD
Famed Member
Reply to  Neil Saunders

The top-up destination is a smart option for their growth plans.

Bradley Cooper
Bradley Cooper

With the advancement of wearable, connected and AI enabled health trackers and apps there is a growing population of more health conscious buyers and as products start incorporating the latest viral health trends there will be an opportunity to work with those producers capitalizing on those trends. Think the products like chips, candy, drinks being fortified with “protein” to follow the consumer demand.

Last edited 1 month ago by Bradley Cooper
Brad Halverson
Brad Halverson

Sprouts healthy & quality strategy should be able to hit growth of 800-1000 stores, especially after recently shifting their format size down to a more efficient 20,000′-25,000′ sq ft. But 1,400 stores? Any limitations to higher growth won’t be in competition from middle of the road grocery chains, rather, over-saturation in trade areas already loaded with healthy and quality grocers.

Sprouts would be wise to take a page from Whole Foods’ expansion template by focusing on 3-5 mile trade areas with both with a high number of shoppers holding advanced education degrees and higher income levels. Advanced degrees and higher income levels create the spark and the ability to buy healthy and good for you foods. Sprouts smaller stores can squeeze into more real estate formats, but for long-term success it will be important to conduct market studies to confirm how much market share could come from other established healthy and quality grocer formats.

Last edited 1 month ago by Brad Halverson
Craig Sundstrom
Craig Sundstrom

While the “ignoring much (most) of the market” may seem like a novel approach, it’s really just a statement of how a company that caters to a segment of that market, operates. (So he gets props for public speaking acumen, more than business insight)
The relevant questions, really, are: what is their segment? how big is it? and who are the competitors? Sprouts at this point is a fairly well known and (at least) competently run player; I don’t think the goal is unrealistic (disclosure: I’m a shareholder) but the reality is that food is what it’s always been: a brutally competitive industry…it takes more than clever semantics to succeed.

Robin M.
Robin M.
Active Member

I’m curious on the math & geo studies that created the “1400” 

Or this typo above might be the real slip of the tongue:
” 1,400 stores from coast-to-cost”

Kudos to the company for making healthy options available, as a lifestyle.
Knocking out the unhealthy aisles in the middle: 
“A lot of grocery stores… you get kind of caught in the middle of these aisles”

Cathy Hotka
Cathy Hotka

Sprouts has a lot of unique value propositions, not the least of which is that they’ll sell you a single carrot. You can shop there without being straight-jacketed into a week of meals. It’s authentic and reasonably priced…they are looking at a bright future.

Mohamed Amer, PhD

Sprouts has always been easier to shop thanks to its great open concept and wall-to-wall visibility, which sets it apart from mainstream grocers. What’s particularly smart is positioning as a “top-up” destination rather than competing for full basket trips. This addresses Sprouts’ need for higher-margin categories and faster inventory turns (smaller format stores). However, top-up works when customers make deliberate trips for differentiated products and fails when they can find “good enough” alternatives at their primary grocer. So, while Walmart and Kroger stock proven products, Sprouts can afford to experiment because its customer base expects discovery. Lastly, to achieve their coast-to-coast aspirations, geographic diversification might matter more than trade area density and market share metrics.

Gary Sankary
Gary Sankary

I sincerely hope they can, but it won’t be easy. I do believe that their focus on healthy, quality foods is precisely the right strategy. My concern is the actual size of this market. To reach 1400 Sprouts, it will have to take a significant chunk of market share from its competitors, including Whole Foods, Fresh Thyme, and the local independent co-ops. Back of napkin math here, but there are likely fewer than 1400 natural food stores across the United States today (I’m guessing in the 1200 range). While customers who shop for natural foods are fiercely loyal, I do worry that zealous customers may be misconstrued to mean “lots of customers.” Missing from this discussion is the fact that this is an upscale customer who is willing to pay more for food they deem healthier.
And in most cases, it’s a lot more. Sprouts will have to consider how they’ll attract new business to their stores. I suspect their target customers tend to cluster by market, and those clusters are already well penetrated by the competition and by the ever-expanding natural food options in traditional grocers. 
The question in my mind isn’t “do they have the right strategy to succeed?” They absolutely do. The questions are: Is the market size big enough to support another 900 new high-end natural grocers, and how will they compete to capture the market share they need to reach their goal?  

Brad Halverson
Brad Halverson
Noble Member
Reply to  Gary Sankary

You’re asking a hard but important question to a numerical game. How many shoppers and trade areas around the country have higher income for weekly shopping for more healthy and higher quality groceries to make the numbers work? Whole Foods and other healthy/quality independents are in most of the strong trade areas. It’s not that there isn’t room for more players so much as how much marketshare will have to come from others to make 1,400 work.

Last edited 1 month ago by Brad Halverson
Scott Benedict
Scott Benedict

I’m skeptical that Sprouts can scale to 1,400 stores without stretching its model. Its strategy deliberately “ignores a huge chunk of the food industry” to double down on health-enthusiast shoppers—roughly a $250 billion slice of the total $1.6 trillion U.S. food market.  The trade-off is that Sprouts must maintain density, distribution logistics (fresh produce is ~20 % of its sales) , and operational discipline—challenges that grow exponentially with scale. Expansion into “white-space” markets where Sprouts has no infrastructure will test whether this niche focus can survive beyond its current corridors.

That said, Sprouts does have credible differentiators: an unorthodox but transparent store layout (low-profile, open sightlines), and a rotating “innovation center” that introduces trend brands and fresh SKUs monthly.  These help make the store feel exploratory—not just utilitarian grocery. But in a world where almost every retailer is pushing “healthy,” Sprouts will need more: deeper data personalization, private-label exclusives tightly tied to its brand promise, and more seamless integration with digital and fulfillment to not lose share to big players who can offer convenience and assortment.

If Sprouts is serious about scale, it cannot neglect e-commerce. It should use physical stores as experience magnets and local hubs, but online must be a strong channel for reorder, delivery, click-and-collect, and expanding reach beyond store-footprint boundaries. Its core strength remains fresh and curated assortments—but e-commerce gives it leverage to grow incrementally without the full burden of store capex. With disciplined execution, it’s possible Sprouts can punch above its niche, but it will demand that it evolve beyond “health grocery” into a full omni specialty operator.

Jeff Sward

‘Ignoring’ lies at the very core of ‘focus’. That’s the whole point! The authenticity of the Sprouts brand promise is established and reinforced by the whole focus/ignore dynamic. I don’t know what the final store count will be or could be. I do know that the world does not need another middle of the road, ordinary grocery store. But a grocery store that can be my partner in elevating my diet and general level of health? Yep, sign me up. Not everyone truly cares about eco-friendly or sustainable fashion. And not everyone will be moved by the Sprouts brand promise. Focus and clarity of brand promise inevitably mean that there is a whole range of the population that this conversation won’t resonate with. I think most better brands would support that point of view.

Kai Clarke
Kai Clarke

Yes, Sprouts can achieve their growth goal, but when is the key question. They are serving an upscale, differentiated market, that has much room to grow, physically in their locations. However, the key here is how they will grow and adapt in the future as their target market keeps evolving.

James Tenser

As an enthusiastic Sprouts shopper for many years here in Arizona, I believe the company can achieve its stated expansion goals by focusing on a lucrative, motivated and growing segment of households:
Its stores feature an expanded and (in my view) superior fresh produce assortment compared with mainstream grocers, with many organic choices.
Its meat and seafood offerings are of top quality but priced slightly below other specialty supermarkets.
Its packaged foods assortment is limited to relatively few national brands, but it does include a curated group of better-for-you branded items.
It carries extensive ranges of supplements and a focused selection of wines and beers, but a minimal assortment of non-food/near-food items.
Its store brand product line is good quality and it reinforces the store positioning.
I believe Sprouts merchandising formula is distinct from the supermarket mainstream and it is positioned where more shopping households are heading.

Last edited 1 month ago by James Tenser

BrainTrust

"'Ignoring’ lies at the very core of ‘focus’. That’s the whole point! Authenticity of the Sprouts brand promise is established and reinforced by the whole focus/ignore dynamic."
Avatar of Jeff Sward

Jeff Sward

Founding Partner, Merchandising Metrics


"Sprouts has a lot of unique value propositions. It’s authentic and reasonably priced, they are looking at a bright future."
Avatar of Cathy Hotka

Cathy Hotka

Principal, Cathy Hotka & Associates


"Yes, they can. And their focused strategy is absolutely right. There is very little white space in the average, mass part of the grocery market."
Avatar of Neil Saunders

Neil Saunders

Managing Director, GlobalData


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