March 26, 2026
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Is Supply Chain Volatility Here To Stay?
Driven by factors ranging from geopolitical fragmentation to accelerating technological change, resource and labor constraints, and energy transition, supply chains disruption is seen by many trade experts as no longer an exception to manage but a permanent operating condition.
The World Economic Forum report, “Global Value Chains Outlook 2026: Orchestrating Corporate and National Agility,” developed in collaboration with Kearney, noted that in 2025 alone, tariff escalations between major economies reshuffled more than $400 billion in global trade flows while disruptions across major shipping routes hiked container shipping costs up 40% year-on-year. At the same time, manufacturing output across advanced economies is growing at its weakest pace since 2009, while more than 3,000 new trade and industrial policy measures were introduced globally in 2025 — more than three times the annual level recorded a decade ago.
The non-profit organization said the structural volatility calls for companies to “re-architect operations for agility, trust and digital foresight.” An accompanying survey of over 300 senior executives showed 74% viewing resilience as a driver of growth.
“Competitive advantage now comes from foresight, optionality and ecosystem coordination,” said Kiva Allgood, managing director for the World Economic Forum, in a press release.
In a recent blog entry, Jon Gold — VP, supply chain & customs policy, National Retailer Federation (NRF) — called out the quick logistic overhauls required for the initial China tariffs during the first Trump administration, the pandemic, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the widescale tariffs in the second Trump administration, and the most recent Middle East conflict.
Gold said, “It’s no longer ‘what if’ something happens, but ‘when’ a disruptive event will occur.”
Gold emphasized the importance of scenario planning, regular reviews of supplier networks, collaboration with internal teams and external partners, c-suite support — and investing in technologies like supply chain visibility platforms, predictive analytics and automation — “to gain real-time insights and react quickly when things change.”
Research from Loftware, a supplier of product identification and supply chain transparency technology, based on a survey of over 400 supply chain professionals identified five trends shaping supply chains in 2026:
- Connected networks: Supply chains are moving away from isolated systems and toward more connected networks that allow suppliers, manufacturers, and partners to share data in real time.
- Geopolitical impacts: Trade rules, labeling requirements, and country-specific regulations continue to change quickly.
- Smart packaging: Beyond protection, packaging and labeling are being used as tools for traceability, recalls, and customer engagement, while also supporting sustainability goals.
- Authenticity and traceability: Traceability and product authentication are now seen as baseline requirements in response to rising pressure from counterfeiting, recalls, and transparency.
- Autonomous supply chains: Survey data showed companies are looking to automation and AI-driven decision-making to improve data quality, visibility, and system integration.
Jim Bureau, president and CEO of Loftware, said, “Our research shows that organizations adopting connected networks, cloud platforms, and AI-driven insights are not just surviving disruption but turning it into opportunity.”
BrainTrust
Tom Ryan
Managing Editor, RetailWire
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Do you agree that supply chain disruptions are the new normal rather than temporary shocks?
Will countries eventually re-embrace a return to free trade and globalization? What advice do you have around building supply-chain resiliency?
Poll
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Volatility is an inherent condition of supply chain, and periods of stability, rather than instability, are what need to be highlighted, because they happen so much more infrequently. At least the complexities of managing Covid-related snafus gave supply chain professionals the recognition they deserve.
Yes: to the extent that the world is more connected than ever before, inevitably there will be more opportunites for disruption: when your whole supply chain consisted of getting a bunch of boxcars from the few states, and/or a bunch of truckloads from the few cities, around you, the disruptions were less frequent. But they were likely to be more disruptive when they did happen, for the very same reason they were infrequent (i.e. there were few other options.) So, despite all the whining, I think we’ve traded more frequent, for less severe…quantity over quality.
Supply chain disruptions increasingly feel like the “new normal,” at least for the near term. Government trade policy, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions—including the widening Iran conflict—continue to create volatility across sourcing, transportation, and energy markets. These shocks will not last forever, but they are likely to persist in the near term, forcing retailers and brands to operate with a higher degree of uncertainty than they experienced in the pre-pandemic era. The COVID-19 pandemic already exposed how vulnerable many supply chains were when overly concentrated in a single region, and today’s geopolitical dynamics are reinforcing that lesson.
Looking ahead, there is a reasonable case that fair trade—not necessarily free trade—may begin to re-emerge, particularly as political leadership evolves and economic pressures mount. A new U.S. Congress next year could potentially shift the tone toward more predictable trade frameworks, though a full return to globalization as it existed in prior decades seems unlikely. Instead, the future may be characterized by regionalization, diversification, and strategic partnerships, rather than reliance on a single low-cost sourcing destination.
For retailers and brands, the key to resiliency is diversification and flexibility. That means multi-country sourcing strategies, nearshoring where appropriate, stronger supplier partnerships, and improved visibility across the supply chain. Inventory strategies may also evolve, balancing lean operations with strategic buffers in critical categories. Ultimately, the companies that succeed will be those that view supply chain resilience not as a temporary response to disruption, but as a core strategic capability in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.
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Volatility is an inherent condition of supply chain, and periods of stability, rather than instability, are what need to be highlighted, because they happen so much more infrequently. At least the complexities of managing Covid-related snafus gave supply chain professionals the recognition they deserve.
Yes: to the extent that the world is more connected than ever before, inevitably there will be more opportunites for disruption: when your whole supply chain consisted of getting a bunch of boxcars from the few states, and/or a bunch of truckloads from the few cities, around you, the disruptions were less frequent. But they were likely to be more disruptive when they did happen, for the very same reason they were infrequent (i.e. there were few other options.) So, despite all the whining, I think we’ve traded more frequent, for less severe…quantity over quality.
Supply chain disruptions increasingly feel like the “new normal,” at least for the near term. Government trade policy, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions—including the widening Iran conflict—continue to create volatility across sourcing, transportation, and energy markets. These shocks will not last forever, but they are likely to persist in the near term, forcing retailers and brands to operate with a higher degree of uncertainty than they experienced in the pre-pandemic era. The COVID-19 pandemic already exposed how vulnerable many supply chains were when overly concentrated in a single region, and today’s geopolitical dynamics are reinforcing that lesson.
Looking ahead, there is a reasonable case that fair trade—not necessarily free trade—may begin to re-emerge, particularly as political leadership evolves and economic pressures mount. A new U.S. Congress next year could potentially shift the tone toward more predictable trade frameworks, though a full return to globalization as it existed in prior decades seems unlikely. Instead, the future may be characterized by regionalization, diversification, and strategic partnerships, rather than reliance on a single low-cost sourcing destination.
For retailers and brands, the key to resiliency is diversification and flexibility. That means multi-country sourcing strategies, nearshoring where appropriate, stronger supplier partnerships, and improved visibility across the supply chain. Inventory strategies may also evolve, balancing lean operations with strategic buffers in critical categories. Ultimately, the companies that succeed will be those that view supply chain resilience not as a temporary response to disruption, but as a core strategic capability in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.