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The National Retail Federation issued a recent forecast predicting import volumes will continue to decline well into 2026, largely due to uncertainty over tariffs and trade policies.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s VP of supply chain and customs policy.
The group moderated its forecast for the declines in the fourth quarter of 2025, pointing to the Trump administration’s move to reduce tariffs on some food products and an agreement with China.
However, the NRF doesn’t see the tariff effects ending soon. Even if the Supreme Court rules that the levies are illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, NRF suspects the Trump administration will reinstate existing tariffs under other trade authorities.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
A third-quarter CFO survey -- from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta -- found that, on average, price growth would be about 30% lower in 2025, and roughly 25% lower in 2026, without the addition of tariffs. Although optimism about the U.S. economy improved in the survey, tariffs and trade policy remained the top concerns among survey respondents.
Some Retailers Believe Trump Administration May Back Off on Tariffs in 2026
Many retailers and vendors have shifted sourcing and taken other mitigation steps to better react to any future tariff changes.
However, some expect the Trump administration may back off from some tariffs given concerns over “affordability.” A Politico poll, conducted in mid-November, found 55% of U.S. adults -- including 22% of Trump voters -- blamed the Trump administration for grocery prices being “difficult” or “very difficult” to afford.
Some also feel prices may rise higher next year as holiday promotions end, and retailers run low on inventory secured at pre-tariff prices.
A note last week from Jeffries cited Target, Best Buy, Hershey, JM Smucker, Ralph Lauren, and Coach-owner Tapestry among stocks expected to "win from tariff relief” as the White House potentially reduces tariff rates ahead of the midterm elections next fall. The analysts said affordability concerns offer "an opportunity to recalibrate tariff levels in select categories."