Mr. Zoli’s comments are somewhat predictable. What will mold the consumers’ buying patterns will be predicated by new technology which will provide faster more significant information regarding pricing and selection. Those retailers that can carve out their own loyalty programs – establishing a stable customer base in conjunction with this technology – are more likely to succeed. The cell phone will be the integral component in this transformation.

Everything in life will continue to evolve based on changes in economics, demographics, personal pleasures, social mores, technology, philosophies, politics and whatever. The key opportunities for retailers and manufacturers will begin with staying in tune with the early nuances that the ever-changing marketplaces will continually send.

If a neighborhood starts to transcend from one ethnic, economic or social characteristic to another, early focus should be on serving the wants and needs of the new consumers. That will revise and perhaps reduce the number of SKUs involved from neighborhood to neighborhood. But in a global sense the total number of SKUs should increase. Innovation, technology and management insight in combination will be the driving forces in creating and distributing different products productively in the revising world of future commerce.

A large scale study last year (I can provide details to those who are interested) said that experts’ predictions are no more accurate than chance when predicting the future — no one can predict the future, not even experts. I know this is fun to do, and I also recognize the value of light-heartedness; I’m not sure how much we can really get out of this kind of speculation, especially when there are so many urgent issues in retailing to attend to.

Regarding David’s point, I think the conundrum is that the increasing diversity of shoppers leads retailers to think that they need more and more SKU’s to satisfy a diversity of tastes while we are learning that shoppers may prefer smaller stores and an edited assortment. So, the answer would seem to be stores that are individually tailored to the demographics of their local trading area.

Retailing will be pervasive thanks to technology that blurs the distinction between physical stores and consumer connectedness. Retailers will find more and more niches to build out highly specialized assortments that appeal to customers tired of dreariness of mass marketing. As a result, independent stores, especially downtown and on the web, will surge in popularity , not as general merchants, but specialists offering uniqueness, relevance and rewards. Mass merchants will slowly strangle themselves robbing their souls as they wring the last dollar out of their suppliers. Millions of robotic store workers will find better jobs where they’ll have time to address people’s needs. Web-merchants in partnership with UPS and FEDEX will trump mass merchants on efficiency and cost. As always, innovation in retail will come from outside. Good merchants will be watching the innovators and will quickly adapt to changing consumer needs and tastes. For the others, who have “figured it all out,” there’ll be lots of room in the retail graveyard outside of town built on the site of an abandoned regional mall.

All of the factors mentioned will affect our shopping future but the new technologies will be enablers — not answers — to address new consumer demands. We have to remember that technology is not a solution…it’s what we do with it that matters. As the analogy goes, it’s not the gun, it’s the bullet! This post was refreshing to see. We have spent too long not being proactive enough about individual consumer wants and needs and these trends will continue to “push” retailers to respond. The concept of behavioral merchandising is likely to help, as established retailers start utilizing data to serve up relevant messaging to relevant people about relevant products in the right store locations. Thanks to dunnhumby’s tireless efforts with Tesco UK with this concept, more and more top brands are embracing the potential benefits of it. If we can only tie better customer service into the equation, we may have a real answer to the challenges that still face us to simply make the store experience easier for our customers. I love… Read more »

I found the analysis to be wedded to somewhat outmoded criteria. For instance, “0ld is not what it once was” – 50 does not denote time for the rocking chair now, but time for increased activity now that the “kids” are out of the house. As for rural vs. urban differentiations – I doubt that there are the same lifestyle differences there may have once been. Rural does not mean backwoods any longer.

Maybe I missed the point here, but we are led to believe that we need to strip down our assortment because there is way too much duplication – then in the next breath we have someone stand up and say we need MORE assortment. I don’t get it.

I agree with Len Lewis comments that “Nothing that Mr. Zoli said is all that unusual” or I might add, unpredictable.

I disagree with Mr. Zoli’s conjecture that there is too much choice in retail and that consumers are demanding “less.” There already exist formats in which constrained selection is offered, such as Clubs. Demand has a remarkable ability to define and impact supply and if such an attitude were to develop you can bet that it retail will follow pretty quickly.

I do believe that Mr. Zoli’s underlying message is a good one, that change is a constant and being attuned to such change and adjusting or getting out in front of it is the hallmark of the successful retailer. This alone will distinguish the face of retail in the next 50 years just as it had the last 50. Sam Walton and others were attuned to such changes and were successful in exploiting it and the age of discount retailing was begun.

It would be interesting to ask how these trends are related to each other. There are going to be demographic changes. While some will be within the various ethnic groups (more of the young and old), the relative composition of the groups will also change. An increasing number of retailers realize the need to address the Hispanics and Asians. Demographics will have a significant effect in how consumers adapt to their new decision making process, whether it’s buying groceries or holiday packages. For example, most Asians are known to prefer simplicity, yet any Asian festivity involves preparing a far greater number of menu items than a Westerner would for Thanksgiving or Christmas. Likewise, many Asians who don’t suffer from obesity might still be indulgent to have an Indian or Chinese version of the pizza (which they already do back in their countries) than say many Americans who are very calorie conscious, to check the greater weight gain and obesity issues they face. So, is there more revenue and profit to be made from addressing the… Read more »

Let’s not forget that these are the same people who, 50 years ago, predicted we’d all have flying cars and personal robots to do the drudge work and free us for more intellectual pursuits. I’m still waiting.

Nothing that Mr. Zoli said is all that unusual. But in one way or another they all provide opportunities for retailers. One of the big ones in my mind is the new urbanization. It’s going to require new types of stores, products, sizes and different packaging.

I would point to Al Plamann’s comment that consumer diversity means an opportunity to broaden the field of fire in terms of products and services. There are few places in the U.S. where this is more evident than in California.

Some retailers are already taking action on key demographic and lifestyle trends: (1) they hire the undocumented when they’re faced with labor shortages (2) drug store chains are building new locations to serve the graying of America (3) Whole Foods and branded organics are expanding quickly to serve LOHAS consumers. The Chief “No” Officer position is still a rarity, though, since most retailers and many manufactured items are still getting more and more complicated. Steve Jobs maybe the best Chief No Officer so far, since Apple products tend to be very easy to use. More and more marketing campaigns, web sites, products, and procedures are running in the opposite direction. Great design looks simple, even if its creation isn’t.