Many of us base our current business activities on what we believe will be wanted or needed in the future. Now, U.K. environmental consultancy Forum for the Future, with the support of Tesco and Unilever, have published research that reveals four possible scenarios for retailing in 2022.
The authors explain, "Each scenario is a different version of what the retail sector and its operating context could look like in 2022. None is intended to be a prediction, or to be better or worse than the other. Our hope is that each scenario is a plausible, internally consistent, possible future in its own right, reflecting combinations of the desirable and less desirable outcomes that will be a feature of most future trends. Taken together, the scenarios provide a challenge to the retail sector to develop robust future-proof strategies that will deliver more sustainable retail in a time of radical change."
Briefly, the scenarios can be summarized as follows:
My way - an individualistic society with the internet and other technologies held in high regard; consumers are demanding and unpredictable, often buying directly from producers rather than big chains.
Sell it to me - buoyant economy with confident people, happy for big business to take the lead in meeting their needs and expectations rather than taking personal responsibility, handing over personal information so that they can be supplied with products tailored to their specific needs and preferences.
From me to you - subdued, uncertain economy with people concerned about climate change; young people building debt, older people worried about surviving on small pensions resulting in less disposable income, a contracting retail sector and an increase in co-operative behavior, growing and swapping goods rather than buying.
I'm in your hands - low consumer confidence, high reliance on government and big business for security and solutions resulting in a highly structured, centralized, supervised society with many of their needs supplied automatically and shopping done online with bricks & mortar stores primarily turned into showrooms.
The object of the exercise was to provide a forum for discussion using the scenarios as tools to test ideas and policies against. The group also hopes to stimulate future product or format ideas that may contribute to sustainable development as well as providing a long-term context for sustainable development strategies within the retail sector in the UK. Some of the predictions, however, can be applied globally as that is the direction being taken by both retailers and manufacturers.
Discussion Questions: Do you think any of the scenarios come close to the way you envision retailing in the U.S. in 2022? Do you think particular factors deserve more or less emphasis?
[Author's commentary] Well, it should do what it says on the label and stimulate discussion. Taking a combination of thinkers/analysts, a major multinational manufacturer and a retailer whose avowed intention is to conquer the world, sprinkle in every conceivable variation on the way society is likely to change and hey, presto, you have four scenarios to consider. A little bit of this and a little bit of that will certainly make the world go round.