Turning Points 2008: The Death of Print

By Tom Ryan
Editor’s note: In what
we plan to make an annual end-of-year tradition, RetailWire has compiled
a list of the most significant retail industry “Turning Points” of
2008. (See
our news release…) What follows
is the first of a series of 12 discussions based on the list.
Retailers and brands
continue to look to newspapers, particularly Sunday circulars and free-standing
inserts, to most directly communicate with customers and drive traffic.
But steep advertising and circulation declines along with the massive staff
layoffs this year have caused even dedicated readers to wonder whether
newspapers have a future.
In the third quarter,
revenues declined 11 percent at Gannett, nine percent at The New York
Times, and 16 percent at McClatchy. Given that television news viewership
in the period grew robustly due to the U.S. presidential campaigns and
the Beijing Olympics, the results were especially disappointing. With advertising
revenues expected to receive another series of hits from the recession,
Fitch, the debt ratings agency, last week predicted several cities could
go without a daily print newspaper by 2010. Just this week, Tribune Co.,
publisher of the Baltimore Sun, Chicago Tribune, and Los
Angeles Times, became the first major newspaper publisher to file for
bankruptcy protection.
The causes of the diminishing
readership are readily apparent: television news viewership has expanded;
the internet has taken away readers as well as essential advertising streams,
such as classifieds; and all the while, environmentalists complain of print’s
impact on trees.
More recently, some wonder
if the newspaper product has gone down hill with all of the bureau closings
and layoffs. A recent New York Times article compared the situation
directly to Circuit City’s decision in March 2007 to fire its most experienced
employees to stave off competitive pressures.
“Circulation declines
were deeper in the last period, and I have to say that I think it has to
do with the quality problems from cuts,” Ken Doctor, a media analyst
at Outsell Inc., a market analysis firm, told the Times. “It
is not just the cutting, but the cutting of more-experienced staff, a kind
of slow-motion suicide. Circuit City cut its own throat by not realizing
what their competitive advantage is, and newspapers are doing the same
thing.”
But a PEW survey of newspaper
executives in July found that cuts to crossword puzzles and TV listings
were the biggest complaints from readers, rather than decreasing news quantity
or quality. To little impact, newspapers have cut pages, shortened stories,
combined sections, reduced foreign and national news, while strengthening
local news and continuing to focus on investigative reporting.
Newspapers hope online
journalism eventually pays off, but any successes on the internet side
have been more than offset by the print declines.
One believer is Rupert
Murdoch, the chairman and chief executive of News Corp. In a recent speech
entitled “The Future of Newspapers: Moving Beyond Dead Trees,” the
media mogul, who counts The Times of London, The Wall Street Journal and The
New York Post among his properties, said that while some newspapers
will lose circulation in coming decades, people are “hungrier for
information that ever before” and still look to newspapers as trusted
sources. Moreover, critics underestimate how online news sources will expand
rapidly not only through web pages and RSS feeds, but also e-mail that
delivers customized news and ads to mobile devices.
“In this coming
century, the form of delivery may change, but the potential audience for
our content will multiply many times over,” he said.
Discussion Question:
How are the problems at newspapers transforming the way retailers communicate
with consumers? Are other media (TV, internet, etc.) proving to be
as or more effective in driving home brand messages and store traffic?
- Newspapers Jettisoning Top Talent
to Cut Costs – The New York Times - ‘Several Cities’ Could Have No Daily
Paper As Soon As 2010, Credit Rater Says – Editor & Publisher
- Murdoch: The Future Of Newspapers
Goes Beyond Dead Trees – ReadWriteWeb - The Changing Newsroom – Journalism.org
- Tribune is extreme,
but more bankruptcies possible – The Associated Press/Google
Join the Discussion!
27 Comments on "Turning Points 2008: The Death of Print"
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Loyalty programs have proved that we can send an email to our customer and they will actually read it. I think the internet is going to play a big part of the retail medium. Most grocers now post their weekly circular online and will even automatically email it to you if so desired.
I also think we are a long way from the death of the paper weekly feature. Now that consumers are in value mode, I think most look forward to ripping apart the Saturday or Sunday edition to look for deals.
I think the Sunday FSI (Free Standing Insert) remains an important vehicle for retailers…along with some Saturday ROP (Run of the Press). Weekdays–eh…I don’t think it adds up to much.
You know, catalog retailers would love to stop mailing catalogs because they’re so expensive…but those catalogs drive traffic to their web sites (a bit hard to verify sometimes, but empirically this seems correct). I think the same is true with the print ad. While customers may use the FSI as a jumping-off point to check prices of comparable items on the web, the FSI is the initial driver.
Newspapers will remain. They just need a bit of model tweaking through cross-channel monetization.
As a supermarket owner, I still get a huge response from our local print ad. Radio does nothing for me, because shoppers in my business are looking for that super meat deal of the week, and I’d be foolish not to provide that in print form.
I also have been emailing my ad to customers for over 6 years, and it works well, too. My ads in print must always be bold, and timely, or I’d be throwing money out the window.
A combination of internet and print work well for supermarkets, and always will!
Another way to look at this is retail’s ability to shape the newspaper industry. Customers are online! And retailers can interact with them there. I worry about the newspaper industry’s ability to bounce back from retail’s “discovery” of Web 2.0, which will undoubtedly blossom during 2009.
Grocers, department stores, mass merchants, specialty stores and other retailers that traditionally have made extensive use of print to advertise need to look at and experiment with other media. Buying more television advertising is not the answer.
The key is to figure out which are their most important customers (the top 20-30% that account for 80% of sales) and learn how those customers want to be communicated with.
We recently had a question about loyalty programs. As media fragments, these programs will become increasingly important as data collection and information dissemination devices. Advertising must be delivered when consumers want it, in the manner they would like to receive it. Welcome to consumer 2.0.
Ah, Newspapers! I know them well from my era with two great papers of their day in Chicago and Philadelphia. What great salesmen they were. Perhaps the death of that great salesman, the newspaper, is predetermined–perhaps not. But like so many things in this fast-changing world, other conduits for faster communication are appearing and taking a portion of yesterday’s newspaper’s place in our commercial lives and I pout in pain over the loss of newspapers’ potency.
And being a former retailer in St. Louis, Cincinnati and Minneapolis, I must now look for a more effective bridge to the consumer among the many methodologies available–but is there really just one that is as effective today as newspapers once were? Thus the glorious quest for retailers is to find the most cost-efficient “newspaper of tomorrow” to tell their sales story. May it be be out there among the proliferating new mediums to the consumers’ wallet.
Retailers have been continuously looking for ways to optimize their newspaper expenditures which is a combination of reducing unproductive distribution while still reaching the best customer segments. I believe that smaller community newspapers will actually thrive in the wake of major daily newspaper struggles. The local content is too valuable. We will also see improvements in digital newspaper offerings for retail advertisers soon.
The big reality check here is that the other media channels are not well positioned to fully pick up the slack. Fragmentation of media and massive clutter makes it difficult to obtain effective reach that importantly, is engaging.
The good news is that retailers are getting more sophisticated with collecting customer data and technology is rapidly improving which is a formula for more effective customer connections that deliver relevant messages to the right segments.
Advertising is in the process of an evolution to match the changing demographics and their habits. If a paper has not evolved to become creative with net advertising, text messaging, and other forms to bundle their package to insure a greater share of the marketing budget it may be too late.
Absolutely, other forms of advertising are proving very effective, just ask our new President-Elect.
Print will decline, but it won’t go away entirely because it’s still an effective mass communications vehicle.
Consumers are asking for less mass/broadcast advertising and more personalized communications, which are better delivered through email and the Internet. As retailers adapt their media mix toward more targeted communications, print vehicles will steadily lose market share.
Mr. Long, may I say on behalf of the others here, welcome to RetailWire. I’d like to thank you and your associates for keeping great print content and journalism alive in Fort Worth…please do all that is possible to keep it up! DFW needs a balance of available print, and your continued presence will ensure that those who might like a monopoly from down I-30 a ways will not prevail. It was most difficult to lose the Times-Herald (much less any of the choices nationwide that have disappeared in the years since). Hopefully your parent company will have the foresight to not give up so easily. I know it must be hard to make it with declining ads/revenue. Again, good to hear from you, and welcome.
I have doubts that webzines/web newspapers, as an economic model, can generate sufficient revenue to pay for consistent quality content. Can you even begin to fathom what a New York Times would be like online, with all the content and all the ads we normally see in the print product? The very idea is almost laughable. I do see partial migration to web content, but I think that for the next half-generation, at least, we’ll need both newspapers and ‘online’ to disseminate news.
Note this headline from AdAgetoday, “Newsday Stakes Its Future on Digital Strategy.”
I think the cart was before the horse on this one: it’s the disappearance of advertisers that’s impacting newspapers, not the other way around.
All of the points made here have validity, but the real question is whether/not the numbers will work out; most of the comments have focused on the Sunday preprint (inserts), but the real problem is the drop in display and classified ads…it’s hard to imagine the latter ever returning. The current pattern is for a bifurcation (in printed media): hi-priced ($1-2) “quality” papers and free, bare-bones tabloids; presumably that pattern will carry us through the next few years, but beyond that is anyone’s guess.
The decline of newspapers is solely related to different sources for news. The papers, especially the top papers, are no longer a valid source of credible news. The majority are seeking other sources for news–period. However, the Sunday paper serves a purpose of carrying the inserts. Find a new viable vehicle for that which has the same effectiveness and then I will be able to quit buying a paper for the circulars and recycling the paper without it even being opened.
For retailers that use print (especially Sunday circulars) as a way to communicate value on specific merchandise, this is a problem. (Think Target and JCPenney, to name just two.) Sunday tabs have been a cost-effective way to sell merchandise at the same time that broadcast and other media “sell” store image and events. There is no way to look at this week’s news (Tribune Companies filing Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the New York Times borrowing against some of its real estate holdings) as positive if you are in the print newspaper or retail business.
The challenge for retailers now is to find “new-media” ways to communicate when specific content is on sale. E-mail blasts, text messages, RSS alerts and website banners are all fine but they don’t necessarily offer the same breadth and specificity of a newspaper circular. We can expect to see retailers linking more aggressively to newspapers’ own websites with online versions of print ads–a potential win for both the store and the publisher.
Regardless of what anyone says, people like to hold printed materials in their hands. There is something naturally easy and enjoyable when it comes to reading pages. I believe that’s one reason electronic books have not caught on.
The question is, is a decline in readership due to the number of media options such as the web and television, or just because people are reducing their spending and the daily newspaper happens to be a casualty of that?
I for one think newspapers will be around for a very long time. And how loyal their readers are will depend more on the relevance of the content than the other sources for news.
Under the category of things move faster than you think, to Warren’s point above, the NY Times already is available online, with all articles and ads, in a format very similar to the print edition, via a service called NY Times Reader. It’s a bit cumbersome but looks interesting.
And, many papers including the WSJ, NYT, LA Times, Chicago Tribune, etc. have mobile editions with PDA shortcuts. For people who’d rather have credible sources of news, vs. hear what some blogger has to say about an important issue like terrorism, these mobile editions provide a great way to catch up on news from around the world while on the go.
Combine the portability of these news sources with an effective coupon delivery system and you have a real win for those consumers willing to embrace new technology.
Tribune went bankrupt because of the high debt. Without that debt, they’re quite profitable. Local monopolies are hard to kill.
BoatSchool is right: most newspapers are going through the motions, so they’re boring. Just like most news web sites. America’s look-alike local department stores got consolidated. They simply weren’t special, their assortments and pricing were very similar, so why not name them all Macy’s? Same with newspapers. Except for the local coverage, they’re all very similar. And the local coverage is rarely compelling.
Should this prevent supermarket ads? Not if they’re profitable. Face it, newspapers have been bores for decades. Readership declined when radio got popular, and declined again with TV.