While some were holding out hope that last-minute selling and after-season gift card sales would help save the day, early estimated holiday results appear to be coming in lower than expected.
The bleakest came from MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse which measured that sales in the two months before Christmas increased 0.7 percent compared to a two percent gain last year. With some reports casting that rate as the slowest since 2008, many retail stocks tumbled on Wednesday.
SpendingPulse tracks total U.S. sales at stores and online via all payment forms.
Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis at MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, told Bloomberg News that Americans became concerned about the fiscal cliff towards the end of the selling period. Hurricane Sandy also interrupted shopping in stores and online after it slammed into the East Coast in late October.
"You are looking at modest to marginal growth from a year ago," said Mr. McNamara. "Weather events and the fiscal debate both anchored the season in terms of growth. The media coverage, which did a good job of explaining the negative consequences of the fiscal cliff, created this negative trend in consumer confidence and spending."
The dismal report came after Friday's report the Consumer Confidence Index plunged in December to its lowest point since July, with economic worries blamed.
Marshal Cohen, chief research analyst at NPD, estimated that customer traffic over the final weekend was in line with the same time a year ago, but shoppers seemed to be spending less.
"There was this absence of joy for the holiday," he told the Associated Press. "There was no Christmas spirit. There have been just too many distractions."
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)/Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index reported that sales edged up only 0.7 percent in the week ended Dec. 21 on a seasonally adjusted basis versus the prior week, and up 3.2 percent versus the year-ago period. ICSC still expects December industry sales will increase 4 percent to 4.5 percent (excluding drug stores) year-over-year, with the final week expected to be boosted by the calendar shift.
Even online sales apparently were affected, with SpendingPulse showing growth of only 8.4 percent from Oct. 28 through Dec. 22. That's a dramatic slowdown from the online sales growth of 15 to 17 percent seen in the prior 18-month period.
But ComScore contradicted those figures in reporting that e-commerce sales increased 16 percent between Nov. 1 and Dec. 21 over the same period in 2011, helped by a 53 percent surge in the last week. ComScore said the late-season surge was helped by 'Free Shipping Day' (Dec. 17) landing on a Monday combined with the fact that so many retailers extended their promotions into the middle of the week with guaranteed shipping by Christmas.
- U.S. Holiday Sales Rise 0.7 percent as Washington Hurts Confidence - Bloomberg
- U.S. retailers scramble after lackluster holiday sales - Reuters
- 'Free Shipping Day' Promotion Spurs Late-Season Online Spending Surge, Improving Season-to-Date Growth Rate to 16 Percent vs. Year Ago - ComScore
- U.S. Holiday Sales Continue to Improve - International Council of Shopping Centers