Will Valentine's Day Spend Break Records in 2026?

Cupid is getting ready to nock some arrows and let them fly as Valentine's Day approaches. And, according to a January 27 press release issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF), it looks like U.S. consumers are excited to gift their loved ones, despite turbulence around today's economic situation.

The top-line projection? Americans are expected to spend a record-high $29.1 billion for Valentine's Day in 2026, beating last year's record of $27.5 billion (notably, almost the same figure as 2020's $27.4 billion, before the pandemic significantly impacted spending surrounding the holiday).

“Valentine’s Day is a cherished holiday that resonates with many Americans, as seen with expected record-breaking spending this year,” NRF VP of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said.

“Much of that growth is driven by middle- and high-income shoppers who are expanding their gift lists to include friends, co-workers and even pets in addition to loved ones," she added.

Among the more notable data points pulled from the NRF Valentine's Day report:

• More than half of U.S. consumers are feeling the love: Approximately 55% of Americans indicated plans to participate in Valentine's Day this year. The overwhelming majority (83%) will be buying a gift for their romantic partner, with spend surrounding this activity anticipated to reach $14.5 billion. More than half of those buying in on Valentine's Day this year (58%) will be picking something up for a family member, totaling projected $4.5 billion in spend.
• Others will be the beneficiary of Valentine's Day cheer as well: Besides significant others and close family, about a third (33%) of Americans will be buying presents for friends (to the tune of an expected $2.4 billion), while just over one-quarter (27%) will be buying gifts for their children's classmates and educators ($2.2 billion). Co-workers aren't going to be left out in the cold -- about one-fifth of U.S. consumers will be purchasing gifts for their work colleagues ($1.7 billion).
• The traditional gifts are still fashionable: The top gift categories include candy (56%), greeting cards and flowers (41% each), a date night out (39%), and jewelry (25%), with the latter category scooping up the bulk of the spending (nearly $7 billion). Date night places second in terms of cash layout ($6.3 billion), with clothing ($3.5 billion) and flowers ($3.1 billion) following next.

Also, pets are family, too: Setting a second record is the percentage of consumers (over one-third, or 35%) who stated intentions to pick up a Valentine's Day gift for their pet.

“Valentine’s Day underscores the value of relationships, and for many people, the connection they share with their pets is an important one,” Prosper Insights & Analytics EVP of Strategy Phil Rist said.

“Whether it’s a dog, cat or other animal, consumers are looking to celebrate their pets this Valentine’s Day with a special toy, accessory or treat," he added.

Online shopping leads the pack in terms of channel selection (38%) for the holiday, with department stores (35%), discount stores (30%), and specialty stores (21%) not too far behind.

Lastly, those electing not to celebrate Valentine's Day still see a sizable cohort (31%) looking to splurge on something, be it a gift, self-care experience, or getting together with loved ones.