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What's the Next Cupcake?

Written by Tom Ryan

By Tom Ryan

Some foodies are calling 2010 the "Year of the Cupcake." The trend is said to have started in the early part of the last decade after the stars of Sex in the City, the defunct HBO show, raved about the cupcakes they would wait in line for at Magnolia Bakery in Greenwich Village.

Since then, cupcake-only bakeries have opened across major cities, and that appears to have extended to many smaller cities over the last year. It's also spawned a big business in cupcake wedding cakes, cupcake cookbooks, and Cupcake Wars, a hit Food Network reality baking show. And just like other items that have gone "gourmet" such as coffee, water, mac 'n' cheese, and paninis (which many consider just fancy cheese sandwiches), many rant about the ability of the shops to fetch $2.50 to $4.00 a cupcake for something that costs around a quarter to bake at home.

And the business keeps growing. According to a report yesterday in the New York Times, the Crumbs Bake Shop, the country's largest cupcake chain with 34 locations in six states, will go public through a $66 million merger with investment company 57th Street General Acquisition Corporation. 

Many attribute the popularity of this comfort food trend to the recession. Cupcakes stand as a reminder of childhood birthday parties and less stressful times. They also appeal to all ages.

"Cupcakes are a sweet treat and small indulgences, so you feel like you're getting something special," Sandy Nance, who co-manages The Cup in Springfield, MO., told the News-Leader. "It's more of an experience."

The store opened in late July, representing its fourth location.

Also helping the trend is the wide range of potential flavors and decorations for inspired chefs. The product's handy take-out size also helps, and many shops offer tinier bite-size versions.

"They're small, manageable and really a lot of fun," Jessica Zimmerman told the News-Leader. She recently began selling her cupcakes at local farmers markets in Springfield.

Nationwide, cupcake sales are predicted to increase 20 percent through 2013, according Mintel, the Chicago-based market research firm.

Not surprisingly, foodies proclaim cupcakes have run their course and pallets are ready for something new for 2011. Here, a few food predictions for 2011:

  • Pies: Similar to cupcakes, pies provide a comfort factor, offer chefs a variety of creative options, and can be made almost bite-size. 
  • Hot dogs: Creative takes are being made through various toppings, bread or upgraded beef. (Sausage has also been mentioned as a breakout trend.)
  • Meatballs: A sliders or mini-burgers craze in 2010 is expected to be replaced by meatballs.
  • Korean/Street Food: Thanks to taco trucks, Korean tacos became hot in 2010, but Korean barbecue also grew in appeal. Other multicultural tacos and portable street food from regions such as South America and Japan are expected to gain in popularity.
  • Salads: A number of fast-food salad restaurants -- Tender Greens, Greenleaf Gourmet Chopshop, Freshii, M Cafe de Chaya, etc. -- have opened in California, addressing the call for healthier diets. 

Discussion Questions: What's driving the popularity of cupcakes and the success of cupcake bakeries? What other food trends from 2010 will likely gain momentum in 2011?

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