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Will Black Friday's slump change the promotional calendar?

Written by Tom Ryan

Many are wondering what Black Friday's surprising sales drop will mean for the promotional calendar for the rest of the year.

On the Sunday after Black Friday, the NRF projected that the four-day Black Friday weekend sales tumbled 11 percent. The trade organization blamed the decline largely on promotions coming earlier and savvy shoppers waiting later for bigger deals in coming weeks. Frequent and extended Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals are expected to complicate predictions for the big holiday shopping days.

ShopperTrak had already predicted on Oct. 30 that Super Saturday would exceed Black Friday sales for the first time since 2005. It attributed the change to early promotions, increased Thanksgiving Day shopping, and more days to shop between Halloween and Black Friday.

ShopperTrak also said that, with Christmas Day falling on a Thursday this year, Dec. 26 will see higher traffic.

"December 26 is traditionally a strong traffic day," said ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin, in a statement. "By virtue of the fact that it falls on a Friday this year, many consumer will extend the holiday to create a long weekend. We expect this to lead to a flood of shoppers taking advantage of post-Christmas sales."

Of course, Black Friday weekend's apparent shortfall will alter the promotional cadence in December.

"I think ones that you see offering significant discounts are the ones that didn't move the inventory they were supposed to over the holiday weekend," Jenn Markey, vice president of marketing for 360pi, the online pricing checker, told USA Today.

Analysts also told MarketWatch that the record Cyber Monday sales by Walmart, Groupon and others will affect retailer's fourth-quarter profits because of free shipping offers and online consumers making more targeted and less impulse-driven purchases.

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