Will Holiday Shopping Spend Beat Last Year's Numbers, Despite Tariff Concerns?

If you're already crossing names and gifts off your shopping list, you're probably not alone. The expansion of the holiday purchasing season means that more than one-third (34%) of those polled by Salsify in the production of its "2025 Holiday Pulse Report" have already begun buying presents for their nearest and dearest, although that does leave the bulk of the remainder (58%) waiting until peak season — spanning September through December — to whip out their cash or credit cards.

The biggest question on the table, however: Will holiday shopping spend outperform 2024's numbers? Let's look to the data for one take.

Salsify Suggests US Holiday Spend in 2025 Could Lead to a 'Pretty, Pretty Good' Year for Retailers

The authors of Salsify's report, which polled 510 American shoppers and 500 from the U.K., suggested that holiday spending this year would stay steady (or steadily increase).

Overall, 18% of respondents said they would be curtailing their spend in 2025, 53% expected to dish about approximately the same amount as last year, and 22% indicated additional spending would take place this holiday season.

One caveat, however: U.K. shoppers were more likely (26%) than their U.S. counterparts (17%) to say they were looking at a higher holiday spending layout in 2025.

An age-related breakout indicated that Gen Zers and millennials were most likely to spend more this holiday season (29% and 25%, respectively), while Gen Xers (16%) and boomers (17%) were less inclined to increase spend versus year-prior levels.

Salsify was keen to point out, however, that in 2024, more shoppers (21%) said they planned to spend less than they had the year prior — a statistic 3% higher than this year's cohort who said the same.

Data: Black Friday Remains a Sales Event Blockbuster, and Online Channels Are Likely To Dominate

Contrasting its last-year result which highlighted that 62% of shoppers were slated to engage with Black Friday sales, Salsify underscored new data which hinted that nearly three-quarters (or 73%) of respondents said as much this year — a substantial gain of 11%.

And while Black Friday historically acted as an in-store counterpart to Cyber Monday, the slow crawl towards online shopping appears to represent itself in the Salsify survey results. Among those polled, 38% plan to shop exclusively online for Black Friday, while 24% said they will be spending money both online and at brick-and-mortar stores. A mere 11% indicated that they would be shopping solely at physical stores, by contrast.

Excitement remained muted for Black Friday itself, however, with 30% stating "it still offers significant value," while 43% stated that they observe deals, but don't entirely rely on them. Nearly a quarter (23%) said that they didn't even notice the deals put on display the year prior.

As an aside, 61% plan to shop Cyber Monday deals, with a generational gap in evidence: Zoomers (72%) and millennials (74%) weighed heavily in the affirmative, while boomers (35%) didn't seem nearly as enthused.

Physical Retail Stores Represent a Vital Product Discovery Channel, However

Seemingly set in opposition to data suggesting that shoppers were disinterested in brick-and-mortar deals, those same locations topped the list when it came to the question of "Where do shoppers discover holiday gift ideas?"

The following list details the survey answers to that question: Physical retail stores (55%), online marketplaces such as Amazon (43%), search engines such as Google (41%), wish lists from friends or family (40%), social media (28%), brand websites (22%), retail websites (22%), video ads on TV or streaming services (10%), print ads (10%), AI chatbots (9%), product review websites (8%), gift guides or blogs (8%), online forums such as Reddit (7%), delivery apps (5%), and finally podcast ads (4%).

As for what people prefer to buy, U.S. shoppers are looking at the following categories:

• Fashion and apparel (54%)
• Electronics (50%)
• Personal care and beauty (40%)
• Food and beverage (36%)
• Alcohol (25%)