US Inflation Remained Relatively Flat in May According to Latest CPI Data, Beating Expectations

Inflation has been a topic of much concern among both economic analysts and consumers alike over the course of the past few years, particularly during and after the COVID era kicked off in 2020.

Now, as the latest consumer price index report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated, it appears that inflationary pressure in the U.S. remains somewhat muted, despite ongoing turbulence created by President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy in addition to other macroeconomic concerns.

The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) — the most commonly used metric — increased 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, following a more significant climb of 0.2% in April. Over the previous 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. Despite inflation having greatly slowed in recent months, that figure still rests slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%.

The key drivers of the uptick in May’s inflation figures were the index for shelter (rising 0.3% last month), singled out as the “primary factor” in the all items monthly increase by BLS. Up next? The food index, with both the food at home index and the index for food away from home both rising by 0.3%. By contrast, the energy index trended downward by 1%, largely attributed to a decline of the gasoline index in May.

CPI rises 0.1% MoM in May: pic.twitter.com/PxfzmZlwJE

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) June 11, 2025

US Inflation Beats FactSet Analyst Expectations, Wells Fargo Economist Calls Numbers ‘Unambiguously Good’

And, according to CNN, the latest CPI numbers appear to have both beaten the inflation estimates previously conjured up by FactSet while also earning restrained praise from at least one industry expert.

FactSet had predicted a CPI increase of 0.2% in May (versus 0.1% actual), and a 2.5% increase on an annual basis (versus 2.4% actual). CNN noted that while tariffs didn’t appear to have a significant impact — at least directly — on the May CPI report, the resultant price hikes and softened consumer demand did seem to hold some sway on the end result.

According to Michael Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo, the May CPI report was mildly encouraging, if not entirely definitive in nature.

“[Wednesday’s report was] pretty unambiguously good,” Pugliese stated.

“It was a good reading in terms of looking for softer inflation,” Pugliese told CNN. “I think it’s too early to draw any conclusions from whether the tariffs are having ‘X’ effect or ‘Y’ effect.”