Trump Ramps Up Trade War With the EU, Risking $9.5 Trillion Market: These States Could Suffer Due to Tariffs

In the latest round in a bout of sparring involving retaliatory tariffs, President Donald Trump threatened that he would be placing a 200% tariff on European Union alcoholic beverages via a March 13 Truth Social post. That warning was issued after the United States instituted a 25% tariff on foreign steel and aluminum, to which the EU responded with a two-part retaliatory tariff plan, per Quartz.

“The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% Tariff on Whisky. If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The EU tariffs — the first portion (a reinstatement of previous tariffs) slated to begin on April 1, and the second (new tariffs) planned to roll out in mid-April — could be ill news for a variety of U.S. businesses.

Quartz cited the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU (AmCham EU) as saying that these “tit-for-tat” tariffs could affect some $9.5 trillion of annual trading, with some states suffering more than others. That being said, the actual value of tariffed goods more particularly would be significantly more modest.

“For companies on both sides, the transatlantic economy is more than just a source of profit,” AmCham EU CEO Malte Lohan said in a statement. “It is a common geoeconomic base that gives them an edge in a fiercely competitive world.”

New York, North Dakota, and Other States Could Be Harmed by EU Retaliatory Tariffs

According to CNBC, New York, North Dakota, and several other states are in line to take the brunt of the proposed retaliatory tariffs, as EU importers shift to less expensive options rather than sourcing from American producers.

Citing data from Trade Partnership Worldwide — which indicated that the value of U.S. exports potentially subjected to tariffs “would increase five-fold, from $6 billion (based on the original Trump tariffs) to over $27 billion” — New York (39%), North Dakota (36%), Nebraska (32%), Iowa (26%), and West Virginia (26%) are host to companies potentially having the highest share of exports relevant to the could-be EU trade war.

Speaking on an actual-dollar basis, New Jersey, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Virginia, and Texas are most endangered by the looming EU trade war. Casks for alcohol, tobacco products, peanuts, orange juice, food oils, dishwashers, motorcycles, clothing, furniture, and carpets are the products most at risk.

Brandon Daniels, CEO of corporate risk management consultant Exiger, gestured toward whiskey-producing states as being vulnerable to any potential EU trade conflicts.

“States like Tennessee and Kentucky, whose economies depend significantly on this luxury export, would feel acute economic pressure. This is where politics and trade policy collide at the moment,” Daniels said.