Walmart Pulls Q1 Operating Income Growth Guidance, Citing Trump Tariffs and Other Headwinds

Walmart issued its sales guidance as part of a broader April 9 corporate news report detailing its upcoming Investment Community Meeting, but one metric was notably absent: a projected range for its Q1 2025 operating income growth figures.

With the earnings report slated to be released on May 15, Walmart noted that it expects quarterly sales growth of between 3% and 4%. And while the retailer suggested that annual sales growth and operating income growth guidance would remain unchanged, Walmart nonetheless also admitted that earlier projections tied to the latter metric had widened in the scope of possibilities for Q1.

“The range of outcomes for Q1 operating income growth has widened due to less favorable category mix, higher casualty claims expense and the desire to maintain flexibility to invest in price as tariffs are implemented,” the news release read.

John David Rainey, EVP and CFO for Walmart Inc., spoke to these concerns with a positive and hopeful message.

“History tells us that when we lean into these periods of uncertainty, Walmart emerges on the other side with greater share and a stronger business,” Rainey said.

“We have fundamentally changed our business model through years of thoughtful, strategic investments and now have a financial model that yields much higher returns,” he added.

Walmart CFO Talks Trump Tariffs, Flagging US Consumer Sentiment

According to CNBC, during an investor presentation on April 9, Rainey also once again took on the subject of tariffs as imposed by President Donald Trump (and those instituted by competing nations in reply), gesturing toward Walmart’s navigation of these.

“[Walmart is] still working through what this [new tariff environment] means for us,” Rainey said, noting that about two-thirds of Walmart products are made, grown, or assembled stateside. The remainder leans heavily upon imports from China and India, which are “most significant” in this regard.

Concerning the notable drop in U.S. consumer sentiment, Rainey pivoted to address this point as well, particularly as it concerns the company’s current quarter.

“The uncertainty and decline in consumer sentiment has led to a little more sales volatility week to week and frankly, day to day,” Rainey said, with general merchandise showing signs of weakness earlier in Q1, though making something of a recovery as of late.

While reticent to discuss quarterly adjusted operating income growth, Walmart signaled a full-year growth rate projection of between 3.5% and 5.5% on a constant currency basis. Full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at between $2.50 and $2.60, with a 5 cent per share currency headwind included.