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November 4, 2025
Will Black Friday 2025 Reveal Any New Trends to Retailers?
With Black Friday just around the bend — falling on Nov. 28 this year — retailers in all sectors are hoping to bring in as much spend as possible, locking it up before the holiday season begins in earnest throughout December.
According to data provided by BCG in its most recent “Consumers Are Rewriting the Rules of Year-End Sales Events” report, Black Friday could provide an array of interesting data to analysts and retail enterprises alike this time around, with estimates outlined by BCG showing action surrounding GenAI shopping tools, an overall uptick in consumer shopping intention for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and other notable data points.
“On the macro level, although persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty—from ongoing conflicts to shifts in tariff policies—continue to affect consumer sentiment, there are early signs of stabilization. Consumers remain cautious, with 81% concerned about recent price increases for essentials and 71% wondering if tariffs and duties will raise prices. Nearly half say they have reduced non-essential spending and are monitoring prices more closely in recent months,” the report authors wrote.
“Yet, compared with 2024, shoppers are displaying slightly less conservative behavior. While many continue to trade down—with 38% buying more at discounters, 35% choosing more affordable brands, and 28% purchasing more private-label goods in the three months prior to the survey—these percentages are slightly lower than those we found in 2024. And shoppers in many markets report smaller net spending reductions in the previous six months compared to our 2024 results, particularly for furniture, jewelry, and clothing, which points to a nascent recovery in consumer confidence and willingness to spend,” they added.
Black Friday 2025: Consumers Still Interested, GenAI Shopping Becomes Reality
Other key takeaways brought forward by BCG’s findings:
- Cash-strapped shoppers are turning to year-end sales events such as Black Friday as important, signaling still subdued but slightly improving consumer sentiment. A full 83% of U.S. shoppers signaled intent to spend during Black Friday or Cyber Monday this year, up more than 4% versus 2024’s figures.
- While essential spending and gifting are retaining relative strength (though both categories shed some percentage points versus year-prior intent levels among global consumers), self-oriented and higher-cost or luxury purchases were seen picking up the slack.
- In the United States, more than half of all consumers polled (51% in total) had either already used GenAI in their shopping journeys (23%) or had not so far — but were planning to use it during the upcoming sales events (28%). This represents a 16% increase over 2024’s statistic.
- Globally speaking, the vast percentage of deal-hunters are looking for a percentage-off discount, with 30% being the threshold most shoppers consider adequate. Free or reduced shipping costs took second place on the savvy shopper podium, with “gamified or conditional offers” lagging far behind at just 6% of support. No strings, or few strings, attached seems to be the pitch most consumers are looking for.
“Year-end sales events have become a must-win global retail moment. These key findings therefore carry important implications for retailers—both for success in the medium term and for building a sustained competitive advantage across future year-end sales event seasons. Success will depend on actions that range from engaging early and defending visibility in AI-driven shopping ecosystems to communicating clearly and delivering on promised discounts and value propositions,” the report stated in conclusion, suggesting that fairness, credibility, AI-driven engagement, loyalty programs, and accurate fulfillment — and simple returns — were among the cornerstones of retail success this Black Friday and beyond.
Discussion Questions
Will Black Friday 2025 see consumer spending rebound versus last year’s levels, despite ongoing consumer sentiment concerns? Why or why not, in your opinion?
Is it, at this point, inevitable that GenAI shopping will become a standard practice across all U.S. consumer cohorts? Is this desirable?
What other trends, in your opinion, will rear their head in retail this Black Friday?
Poll
Loading …BrainTrust
Mark Ryski
Founder, CEO & Author, HeadCount Corporation
David Biernbaum
Founder & President, David Biernbaum & Associates LLC
Cathy Hotka
Principal, Cathy Hotka & Associates
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From our early research there are a few trends. The first is the greater use of AI for ideas, checking product details, and researching prices. The second is a more planned approach, with consumers targeting spend more carefully and doing more pre-work to snag the best deals. The third is a focus on experiences with family to make good holiday memories; something that may eat into product spend a little.
This may be one of the most unpredictable holiday seasons in recent memory. With economic headwinds, such as tariff induced inflation, unemployment pressure exacerbated by a government shut down, and general unease, I think that retailers will need to work hard to deliver meaningful growth. As always, there will be winners and losers, but in general, I’m expecting a more challenged holiday season with a steady stream of promotions and discounts. Retailers should start fast and keep the pressure on this holiday season. Getting shoppers into the store is step one, but then they need to convert as many as possible. Don’t count on ‘be-backs.’
That’s a rather strange definition of “stabilization” methinks. I’ll skew negative here, tho not with any particular passion; I would point out, however, what I feel is the folly of assuming everyone will behave similarly: if we accept – as is so often claimed – that the economy is becoming increasingly dominated by a narrow slice of “haves”, the aggregate percentages mean very little…it’s what that wealthy cohort will do that will matter most. At least for the economy as a whole.
Are wealthy Americans still less reliant on Black Friday deals?
Hard to know when BF looks like the whole month of November.
Will wealth stay as “quiet luxury” or get louder more emboldened by Billionaires who flaunt?
Black Friday 2025 may show modest spending growth versus last year, but it’s no longer the bellwether it once was. With sales increasingly spread across events like Amazon Prime Day, Cyber Monday, and early holiday promotions, consumer demand is being pulled forward. While intent to shop remains strong, persistent inflation and cautious sentiment mean retailers will need sharp pricing, curated assortments, and frictionless omnichannel execution to convert interest into real gains.
Generative AI is quickly moving from experiment to mainstream, with over half of U.S. consumers saying they’ve used or plan to use GenAI tools in their shopping journey. When deployed thoughtfully — to enhance discovery, personalization, and convenience — AI can strengthen loyalty and improve conversion. But retailers must balance innovation with trust, ensuring recommendations feel authentic and privacy-conscious.
This season, success will hinge on value, transparency, and seamless digital-physical integration. The most effective retailers will use real-time “test and learn” strategies to refine promotions and messaging throughout the season — prioritizing customer experience and long-term loyalty over one-day sales spikes.
As inflation has been reduced to marginal levels under the Trump administration, inflation itself will have a marginal impact. Despite this, prices remain 23% higher than they were four years ago. It is possible that consumers are less concerned about the economy due to the stock market setting new records every day, as well as interest rates declining.
Black Friday 2025 may see a rise in consumer spending as shoppers search for the best deals. A rise in online shopping and the popularity of buy-now-pay-later services may also encourage more purchases.
Keep in mind that with there being so many different ways to spend money, accurate comparisons of black Fridays from year to year might be impossible.
I expect Black Friday 2025 to continue the upward trend from last year’s spending levels. Despite a prevailing cautionary mindset, high-value deals and desirable products will still attract buyers.
Regarding GenAI shopping, Agentic Commerce, where AI acts autonomously on behalf of the user, is indeed inevitable in the US and other geographies, across all consumer cohorts. While there is inherent tension between the optimization goals (and value capture) for consumer-controlled AI agents and platform-controlled ones, consumers’ primary aim is to find the best deal by quickly comparing products and minimizing decision fatigue in a friction-free way.
One trend that will become a non-negotiable deal-breaker for Black Friday 2025 is the dominance of free shipping. It has transitioned from a perk to a critical conversion lever, and in an Agentic Commerce setting, its absence will likely remove a retailer from the AI’s consideration set entirely.
The upper middle class is doing well, but remember that we have 42,000,000 citizens who can’t adequately feed themselves. Voter sentiment is electric. Don’t expect a stellar holiday season.
Retailers had to predict demand for Black Friday and Holiday 2025 months ago, in a period of uncertainty. They made purchase decisions for this holiday burdened by tariff, pricing and margin uncertainty. Job growth is slow. Grocery $$$ were taking bigger share of wallet even before the SNAP debacle. And now it’s uncertain whether or not SNAP $$$ will find themselves back in circulation. Kind of amazing that’s is even a question. Add that all up and it’s tough to be cheerful about BF and Holiday 2025.
GenAI doesn’t create money and it doesn’t pay bills. But it can make a big difference in how a customer shops or how a brand/retailer positions themselves in the market. Brands and retailers who execute GenAI well may be able to steal some market share. Yes, GenAi will become table stakes at some point. Sooner than later. Best not to be late to that party.
Agentic AI is on a rollout and trials across retail.
Generative AI has been pushed into society and, yes, will be table stakes. If not already. e.g. Google search results are GenAI, with increasing AgenticAI building in. Upending the search ad industry of yore. (Now cleaner results for shopping, but unstable results for news/content)
Consumers are extremely nervous. Businesses are concerned about the economy. Almost a million people were laid off in September and October alone. Prices for food and gas remain stubbornly high. Health care costs for the most vulnerable Americans are skyrocketing. None of this bodes well for a strong Black Friday or for Holiday 2025 in general.
I expect we’ll see consumers pull back and focus on smaller, more modest holiday gifts and celebrations.
This BCG data offers fascinating insights, but as a seasoned retailer, I agree that percentage guesses are meaningless until the cash register actually rings.
It’s clear consumers are now habituated to deferring non-essential purchases specifically for Black Friday, treating these sale windows as the true start of the holiday buying season, rather than an added bonus.
This leads to my main question: Given the tough sales environment of the last two years, many brands have employed a long-term strategy of increasing their base product prices only to offer heavier, more frequent discounts. While this fuels the Black Friday rush, does this practice ultimately erode the perception of year-round value and trust with consumers, or is it a necessary tactic to drive volume in a “discount-or-die” market?
This Black Friday will reveal opportunities for retailers to plug any gaps as consumer touchpoints proliferate.
If a consumer discovers a product while scrolling TikTok or asking a question on ChatGPT, are those specific goods actually in stock? Is availability keeping up with demand, especially for viral trends?
Now that consumers can shop anywhere, retailers need a holistic, integrated view of all their touchpoints (stores, e-commerce, social media, ChatGPT presence) so they can stay agile and satisfy customers in real time.
Black Friday has become part of a longer sales season rather than a single day of heavy discounts. Customers now plan their purchases early, compare across channels, and spread their spending through November instead of waiting for one big event.
This year, spending may rise slightly, not because confidence has surged, but because customers have adapted. They’re balancing value with convenience and spending where they see reliability and fair pricing.
For retailers, success will come from preparation and precision, starting promotions early, keeping assortments relevant, and executing fulfillment smoothly. Customers remember when retailers deliver on promises, and that trust matters more than the size of any discount.