April 8, 2026
Dogora/Depositphotos.com
How Might US Malls Continue To Chart a Growth Pattern?
The death of the American mall has been a touchstone topic for debate in the retail business, but reports appear to have been greatly (or at least prematurely) exaggerated.
According to an Apr. 2 white paper from Placer.ai’s The Anchor, three categories of U.S. malls measured — indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls — all exhibited rigorous growth in January and February of 2026. Indoor malls saw traffic growth of 4.5%, open-air centers 6.4%, and outlet malls 5.2%.
“Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the ‘dead mall’ narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving,” the paper suggested.
More recent data put forth in a separate report by Placer.ai’s Shira Petrack indicated a similar trend, with indoor malls seeing foot traffic improve by 2.2% over the entire first quarter, open-air shopping centers moving upward by 5.1%, and outlet malls by a more modest 1.4%. However, March’s statistics started to show some cracks.
“But March 2026 visits were more subdued, with indoor malls seeing a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline of 1.1% and outlet malls experiencing a steeper drop of 4.1% compared to March 2025. Open-air shopping centers were the only format to maintain growth, though their 3.2% YoY visit increase — though solid — was still more modest than the stronger gains seen by the format in January and February,” Petrack wrote.
Weakness in midday visits over March pulled mall traffic numbers down, but one note of resilience showed itself — most notably in figures for open-air shopping centers, as both outlet malls and indoor malls saw declines versus solidity. With open-air centers being described as having an edge with affluent customers, as well as with those making short weekday visits and visits out of convenience (versus indoor malls being seen as hangout spots, particularly for younger shoppers), a few final notes were underscored for analysis:
- A convenience-experience divide shows up in mall performance: Shoppers are signaling that they have a clear purpose in mind when mall shopping, exhibiting a preference for either quick and efficient trips or an immersive experiential journey.
- Outlet malls are approaching a do-or-die decision point: Off-price retailers like TJX, among others, are cutting deeply into their market share, and outlet malls need to find a way to reignite interest as competitors erode their treasure hunt proposition. “Outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal,” the white paper indicated.
BrainTrust
Nicholas Morine
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Discussion Questions
Do you believe the ‘dead mall’ narrative in terms of American retail is overstated? Why or why not?
Concerning the three categories of malls outlined, how might you advise each to proceed in order to achieve maximum growth?
Is the outlet mall destined to decline over the next decade? What could turn the tables?
Poll
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In its most extreme form – all malls are dying! – yes, of course it was an exaggeration (as any such broad-based claim will be.) But in the more general sense, I think it’s an accurate description of the sector: we will (continue to) see many – primarily older and subpar – malls close, and few will be built in their place. A few months of growth on top of years of stagnation is hardly a revolution…particularly when it’s in a shrinking data set.
The dead mall narrative has as much validity as the retail apocalypse narrative. It takes some grains of truth – namely that there are too many malls and some older ones are in decline – and applies it to the whole sector. What it ignores is the scores of very successful malls that have low vacancy rates and growing sales. It also ignores the reinvention of old malls into mixed use developments. Ultimately, shopping places have a very secure place in the retail landscape.
The “dead mall” narrative is overblown. Shoppers haven’t abandoned physical retail; they’ve just gotten more selective about it.
The malls that are thriving have figured out their lane.
Open-air centers win on convenience, things like easy in, easy out, and fits naturally into a Tuesday errand run. Indoor malls still have a place when they give people a reason to stay, such as food, entertainment, or experiences you can’t replicate with a browser tab.
Different missions, both working.
The path forward isn’t complicated, it’s just harder to execute.
Indoor malls need to lean into what Amazon can’t deliver: community, discovery, and a good night out. Open-air centers should keep doing what they’re doing in terms of staying frictionless and useful. Outlets have the toughest job; they need to decide if they’re a local value hub or a genuine shopping destination, because the middle ground is getting crowded.
The malls that struggle from here will be the ones that never picked a reason to exist. The ones that did? They’re not going anywhere.
Open air also may win when climate assists!
Based on NOAA, USA weather in January and February 2026 was significantly warmer and drier than usual on average across the country, particularly in the West, with some local exceptions.
Of course the ‘dead mall’ narrative is overstated. It took a while but ecommerce finally siphoned enough $$$ out of consumers wallets that low population density markets lost the critical mass of customer $$$ to survive. There’s zero surprise to that. It was a ticking time bomb that finally went off, “C” mall by “C” mall. And other malls acted like their department store tenants and refused to evolve. “A” malls that did evolve are doing well. And by the way, people still live physical retail. They just don’t shop like it’s 1987 anymore.
Mall owners are now in a pretty good position to know which malls will survive as malls and which will need to be reinvented. Retailers and brands can read the same landscape. And they all know the solution will be slow, painful and expensive.
Brands and retailers sowed a lot of their own seeds of destruction by supporting outlet malls and off-pricers. Aside from ecommerce, outlet malls also pulled a lot of $$$ away from regular malls over the years. Turns out that was not good solid brand management. It was good shirt term growth, but it was not good long term brand management. So my vote is that outlet malls and off-pricers experience some shrinkage. I’m not holding my breath on that one.
“Dead” is a big word. But the reality is that, from the heydays of malls (pre-online retailing), 15% to 20% of retail is now done online. When that much revenue disappears, fixed costs cannot be covered, and malls are full of fixed costs.
Regarding the numbers in the discussion, if sales aren’t above the inflation rate, they should be counted as a zero increase.
The “dead mall” narrative is overstated. Malls are not disappearing, but they are changing. Customers today shop with a clear purpose. They either want a quick and convenient trip or a more engaging experience. Malls that fail to deliver either of these are the ones losing traffic.
The way forward is simple. Open-air centers should focus on convenience and ease. Indoor malls need to invest in experience and make visits more engaging. Outlet malls need to rethink their value, as price alone is no longer enough. Malls that stay relevant to customer needs will continue to grow, while others will struggle.
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In its most extreme form – all malls are dying! – yes, of course it was an exaggeration (as any such broad-based claim will be.) But in the more general sense, I think it’s an accurate description of the sector: we will (continue to) see many – primarily older and subpar – malls close, and few will be built in their place. A few months of growth on top of years of stagnation is hardly a revolution…particularly when it’s in a shrinking data set.
The dead mall narrative has as much validity as the retail apocalypse narrative. It takes some grains of truth – namely that there are too many malls and some older ones are in decline – and applies it to the whole sector. What it ignores is the scores of very successful malls that have low vacancy rates and growing sales. It also ignores the reinvention of old malls into mixed use developments. Ultimately, shopping places have a very secure place in the retail landscape.
The “dead mall” narrative is overblown. Shoppers haven’t abandoned physical retail; they’ve just gotten more selective about it.
The malls that are thriving have figured out their lane.
Open-air centers win on convenience, things like easy in, easy out, and fits naturally into a Tuesday errand run. Indoor malls still have a place when they give people a reason to stay, such as food, entertainment, or experiences you can’t replicate with a browser tab.
Different missions, both working.
The path forward isn’t complicated, it’s just harder to execute.
Indoor malls need to lean into what Amazon can’t deliver: community, discovery, and a good night out. Open-air centers should keep doing what they’re doing in terms of staying frictionless and useful. Outlets have the toughest job; they need to decide if they’re a local value hub or a genuine shopping destination, because the middle ground is getting crowded.
The malls that struggle from here will be the ones that never picked a reason to exist. The ones that did? They’re not going anywhere.
Open air also may win when climate assists!
Based on NOAA, USA weather in January and February 2026 was significantly warmer and drier than usual on average across the country, particularly in the West, with some local exceptions.
Of course the ‘dead mall’ narrative is overstated. It took a while but ecommerce finally siphoned enough $$$ out of consumers wallets that low population density markets lost the critical mass of customer $$$ to survive. There’s zero surprise to that. It was a ticking time bomb that finally went off, “C” mall by “C” mall. And other malls acted like their department store tenants and refused to evolve. “A” malls that did evolve are doing well. And by the way, people still live physical retail. They just don’t shop like it’s 1987 anymore.
Mall owners are now in a pretty good position to know which malls will survive as malls and which will need to be reinvented. Retailers and brands can read the same landscape. And they all know the solution will be slow, painful and expensive.
Brands and retailers sowed a lot of their own seeds of destruction by supporting outlet malls and off-pricers. Aside from ecommerce, outlet malls also pulled a lot of $$$ away from regular malls over the years. Turns out that was not good solid brand management. It was good shirt term growth, but it was not good long term brand management. So my vote is that outlet malls and off-pricers experience some shrinkage. I’m not holding my breath on that one.
“Dead” is a big word. But the reality is that, from the heydays of malls (pre-online retailing), 15% to 20% of retail is now done online. When that much revenue disappears, fixed costs cannot be covered, and malls are full of fixed costs.
Regarding the numbers in the discussion, if sales aren’t above the inflation rate, they should be counted as a zero increase.
The “dead mall” narrative is overstated. Malls are not disappearing, but they are changing. Customers today shop with a clear purpose. They either want a quick and convenient trip or a more engaging experience. Malls that fail to deliver either of these are the ones losing traffic.
The way forward is simple. Open-air centers should focus on convenience and ease. Indoor malls need to invest in experience and make visits more engaging. Outlet malls need to rethink their value, as price alone is no longer enough. Malls that stay relevant to customer needs will continue to grow, while others will struggle.