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June 24, 2025
Will 2025 Back-to-School Shopping Spend Actually Top Last Year’s Results?
It may seem a bit early to be talking about back-to-school shopping already, with many K-12 students just wrapping up their school year. However, back-to-school spending has been a hot topic on the retail radar as of late, with many outlets reporting a likelihood that spending will top 2024’s results — although the looming tariff situation and other macroeconomic pressures could see a reversal of fortunes.
As Forbes recently reported, it appears that the results could be quite close when it comes to a comparison between last year’s spend and this year’s.
Citing data from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the outlet suggested that almost three-quarters of U.S. families expect to spend an equal amount, or slightly more, on BTS shopping in 2025 versus the year prior. That figure was reinforced by a SuperAwesome survey (via KidScreen) of more than 1,000 kids and parents across the U.S., which predicts an average spend of $455 in 2025, up a modest $11 from 2024, generating an expected $84 billion in sales stateside.
Value Is Top of Mind for Parents Engaging in Back-to-School Shopping This Year
It may come as no surprise that value was one of the primary concepts explored by the PwC survey — the first of its kind, although the firm now expects to conduct one on an annual basis — on the BTS shopping front, despite the fact that about one-third of respondents said they would be increasing their budget this year.
“We’re finding such a value-oriented consumer right now, given inflation, given the uncertainty of the economy,” said PwC Global Retail Leader Kelly Pedersen. “So that’s frankly no surprise that looking for value is super important right now.”
Notably, those surveyed said they planned to save by restricting purchases to sale items (37%), front-loading their shopping (37%), and reusing items that were still in good condition. The first and third line entries on this list could lead to a reduction in revenue for retailers banking big on the BTS season.
Other posed savings ideas were also a mixed bag for retailers, with respondents planning to buy more store-brand products (22%) — a definite notch in the plus column — but also buying more secondhand or thrifted items (18%) and engaging in layaway plans (10%).
Also interesting: Tech purchases and apparel are slated to account for the biggest price tags bagged for the season, and one-in-five parents (20%) are planning to engage with AI tools to find the best back-to-school bargains.
Parents are now aware that “using an AI agent to go find the best deal is possible, and I think consumers are turning to that more and more,” according to Pedersen.
Tariffs Remain a Factor for Parents This BTS Season
With the aforementioned studies showing only a minor increase in projected spend this year — and eMarketer suggesting that back-to-school spending will slow its rate of growth this year, although it maintains an expectation of an overall spending increase in total — the actual result when the dust settles could vary greatly, particularly if economic pressures on U.S. consumers intensify.
Wunderkind’s tariff survey delivered a breakdown emphasizing the continuing impacts of tariffs and inflation on the season, the second-largest shopping season behind the holidays.
“Here’s the top line: 29% of U.S. consumers expect to spend less this back-to-school season due to tariffs or inflation. Over a third (34%) are focusing more on discounts, and 28% plan to stick strictly to the essentials,” Wunderkind suggested.
“Translation? This isn’t just cautious budgeting, it’s a reshaping of shopping behavior. Consumers aren’t just hitting pause on the extra pair of sneakers, they’re questioning the whole cart. 15% are delaying big-ticket items, and 31% plan no change… yet, which means there’s still room to influence decisions,” the marketing firm added.
Discussion Questions
Despite many indicators suggesting a mild increase in overall spend, will the BTS retail season actually experience relative growth in 2025? Why or why not?
What conclusions or predictions can be drawn from data indicating that 20% of parents are turning to AI for the best deals? Does this signal danger for traditional search engines or social media ad campaigns?
Is it wise for parents to front-load purchasing for BTS, or would it be more appropriate to wait for last-minute deals as the buying buzz fizzles out in earlier months?
Poll
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Cathy Hotka
Principal, Cathy Hotka & Associates
Jeff Sward
Founding Partner, Merchandising Metrics
Mohamed Amer, PhD
CEO & Strategic Board Advisor, Strategy Doctor
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A small uplift in spending is not impossible, but most of it will be driven by inflation rather than volume increases. The real question is which retailers will win the season – because the spoils will not be divided equally.
Prices will rise because of general price hikes. Customers will try mightily to find the best deals, but they won’t be able to escape some eye-popping increase in cost. And Back To School is when product shortages should manifest themselves.
The headline on this article asks if 2025 back-to-school spending will top last year’s results, but goes on to talk about cautious budgeting, and consumers questioning the cost of the whole cart.
Buying back-to-school supplies isn’t ever cheap. This year in particular, shoppers will do their homework and seek out retailers that offer the best deals.
Projections of an $11 increase yoy will actually reflect negative real spending once you strip out inflation. The 20 percent of parents who intend to use AI for deal hunting will make traditional search and social media ads less effective. To beat the tariff race, smart retailers should be front-loading their most profitable discretionary inventory now before the Q4 price shock hits. Paradoxically, those consumers who choose to sit tight may find themselves in the catbird seat in a sea of clearance sales later in the year. This year’s Back to School season is the canary in the coal mine for the holiday season 2025. If families are price-sensitive on BTS basics, how will they spend on discretionary holiday gifts? But the real story lies beneath these modest projections.
Underneath this surface of little meaningful change year over year, a fierce struggle is underway as AI begins to provide consumers with “perfect information.” The acceleration of AI capabilities, particularly AI agents, is outpacing most organizations’ ability to absorb and deploy these new models – creating both opportunity and disruption.
Has anyone noticed that every year, the media and retailers measure the increase in BTS sales in dollars, and some even boast of their 2% gains? Can we recognize that unless revenues exceed BTS inflation, there is no increase at all?
What will BTS inflation be? It depends on the country of origin of the products.
It’s actually worse than that, since we should probably also figure in 1% or so for population growth. (I’ll be polite and skip over the other point that after we’ve answered the question “Will we top last year?”, what are we supposed to do with that information.)
Seems like the real tell for post BTS will be the mix of essentials versus discretionary…if that data exists for this year and prior years. If there is an ongoing shift to essentials, that indicates a real tightening of wallets and potentially soft holiday season. Doesn’t feel like relaxed, cheerful, discretionary spending is on the horizon any time soon.
Inflation, value-driven shopping, and retailer margin pressure make real growth unlikely, even though 2025 back-to-school (BTS) spending may show a modest increase in total dollars. Customers are becoming more astute shoppers, giving priority to essentials, private labels, sales, and used goods. Economic uncertainty and tariffs put additional strain on the economy. Retailers will therefore have to put in more effort for less substantial gains, and any growth will be more technical than significant. A change in consumer behavior is indicated by the fact that 20% of parents are using AI to find back-to-school deals. As consumers increasingly turn away from traditional search engines and social media ad campaigns in favor of quicker, more individualized AI tools, it raises possible concerns for these platforms. Retailers need to adjust by providing competitive pricing, integrating into AI shopping ecosystems, and making sure their product data is AI-accessible. AI is emerging as a new channel for shopping, and companies that don’t adapt run the risk of losing customers and revenue. In 2025, front-loading back-to-school purchases is usually a wise move because it offers a wider range, more stable prices, and fewer stock problems. Even though there might be last-minute sales, particularly on clothing and technology, waiting is dangerous because of possible sellouts and price increases brought on by tariffs or inflation. The best strategy is a combination: purchase necessities in advance and keep an eye out for specific late-season sales.
2025 back-to-school sales may outshine 2024, in terms of the dollar amount rather than unit sales due to inflationary pressure.
I suspect the increase in spend will be due to inflation more than anything else. In general there is a lot of pressure to household budget right now due to uncertainties in multiple areas of the economy. Deal hunting is the norm and the question is how would the supply chain hold up with the various tariff discussions.
Even if total spend rises slightly, the bigger story is how back-to-school shopping habits are changing. Parents are becoming more price conscious – looking for sales, buying secondhand, and even using AI tools to find the best deals. To capture these sales, retailers should double down on value, convenience, and meeting shoppers where they are.
The trend could indicate a shift in consumer behavior, where more people are relying on artificial intelligence for personalized recommendations. In order to remain competitive and relevant in this evolving environment, traditional search engines and social media ad campaigns may need to integrate AI-driven solutions, which I strongly believe will occur.
Moving up back to school merchandising and ads seems a wise move for retailers. Get shoppers to pantry load today with value-based items to capture sales early before the discounting gets out of hand. I’d rather have a shopper comparison shop when discounts are scarce.
Back-to-school shopping isn’t just about how much people spend but how they make spending decisions. Many shoppers are focused on the basics and are looking for better deals. For retailers, this is a signal to focus on everyday school items, fair pricing, and a consistent experience across stores and online.
Legacy search is irrevocably changed, however the motion of looking for the best deals is largely the same. OpenAI, Google “Ai Mode,” and Perplexity are all examples of LLM-based search that are integrating easily within the common motions of a chat bot AND a search engine.
While traffic and overall “searching” may decline, the rich-data and unstructured results page allows for consumers and brands to show a strong offering. This is likely a boon to smaller brands that are well reviewed, even in niche settings like reddit, and potentially a damaging impact on legacy top-of-the-SERP brands that have held that position through domain authority and brand awareness.