Fresh Produce Captures US Grocery Shoppers’ Interest, but Tariffs May Push Prices Upward

It appears that U.S. grocery shoppers are increasingly interested in a healthier diet and food cooked at home, perhaps due to a combination of persistent inflationary pressures as well as a focus on a cleaner diet.

According to Supermarket News, a variety of consumer segments are turning to fruit and vegetables when they head to the grocery store, creating a massive opportunity for retailers in the space. Citing Circana data that captured 12 months of activity concluding on Dec. 1, 2024, the outlet indicated that fresh produce volume sales had ticked upward by 3.6% year-over-year to 50.3 billion, resting at a total value of $92.7 billion in dollar sales (up 3.8%).

Fruit dollar sales rose to $47.6 billion — an increase of 5.7% — while vegetable dollar sales hit $43.9 billion, a more modest increase of 1.9%. Boomers and members of Gen X were responsible for buying the bulk of both categories, but there is growth potential for fresh produce sales across all age cohorts, as Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics LLC, suggested.

Organic Produce a Hit, and While Older Consumers Are Reliable Purchasers, Gen Z Interest Remains an Opportunity in Grocery

Organic produce in particular outperformed nonorganic competition, with volume sales hiking upward by 7.2% and dollar sales rising by 5.1% to settle at $11.5 billion.

Sherry Frey, vice president of health & wellness thought leadership at NielsenIQ, weighed in on the subject.

“Fresh produce remains a cornerstone of nutritional goals,” she said. “Consumers are increasingly seeking out fresh fruits, vegetables, and minimally processed foods. Organic and clean-label options are also gaining popularity as more shoppers are willing to pay a premium for transparency, fewer additives, and sustainable farming practices.”

And while older Americans continue to buy fresh produce on a consistent basis — according to Chris Costagli, vice president of food thought leadership at NielsenIQ — there’s a broader opportunity for grocers and food retailers to seize upon.

“[Older Americans] often have more time to cook and are making fresh ingredients a staple in their diets,” he said, also gesturing toward the notion of further capitalization across many retail channels to make produce sales, be it warehouse clubs, dollar stores, or mass market grocers. Older Americans, Costagli explained, also have established cooking patterns and preferences for home-cooked meals that prompt further spending on fresh produce, no matter the retail channel they prefer.

“These channels offer greater affordability for essential items,” he said. “As budgets tighten, this trend is expected to continue. More consumers are planning to cut back on snacks, confectionery, and frozen foods in favor of fresh produce, dairy, and meat.”

But what of Gen Z? While zoomers are less active buyers when it comes to produce, perhaps they can be spurred to buy in if grocers and other retailers in the food segment make the proposition more appealing to their demographic taste profile.

“Gen Z tends to shop more frequently but plans less, and that presents an opportunity to use creative in-store strategies and digital engagement,” Costagli said. “The shoppers value sustainability and ethical sourcing, so highlighting product origin and environmental impact, as well as using innovative packaging with freshness indicators, can build trust and loyalty.”

Finally, Jonna Parker — Circana team lead, Fresh Foods Group — said that package sizing can be key to improving sales even further, regardless of the age of the shopper. American grocery shoppers are taking more trips to the store, but purchasing fewer items each time.

“People don’t want to stock up and risk having to throw away items,” she said.

An ample number of single- and two-person households could also be key for grocers and producers zeroing in on capturing more sales to a potentially underserved demographic concerned about food spoilage.

Trump Tariffs Could Stymie Produce Imports via Price Increases

One headwind facing the increased appetite for fresh produce in the U.S. is the rollout of President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico.

According to Fresh Plaza, domestic production of fresh fruits and vegetables nosedived by 10% and 23.1%, respectively, between 2000 and 2022. By 2022, imports represented 54.8% of the American fresh fruit supply and 29.3% of the fresh vegetable supply, up significantly from 36.6% and 9.5% in 2000.

With the United States increasingly reliant on imported fresh produce, tariffs placed on neighboring countries, where the nation sources the bulk of these imports, could exert downward pressure on demand alongside a steep increase in price.

Quoted by HortiDaily, Natalia Merienne — founder of the brand Avocado Queen as well as a producer and importer within the segment — pointed to the dangers posed by any sweeping tariffs on fresh fruits and vegetables.

“The 25 percent tariff represents a significant burden for the industry. The reality is that produce margins in the U.S. are far from 25 percent, meaning this increase would inevitably have to be transferred to the end consumer,” Merienne said.

“This would result in higher prices for avocados in the U.S. market, potentially making them less accessible to consumers. Moreover, this issue is not exclusive to avocados as it applies to all fruits and vegetables imported from Mexico, which make up a significant portion of U.S. supply,” Merienne added.