phiwath.j@gmail.com/Depositphotos.com
August 21, 2025
Will Halloween Spending Rebound in 2025, Despite Tariffs and Other Macro Concerns?
It might seem a little early to be speaking of spooky season, but with holiday creep advancing yearly — and with big names such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot already getting in on the Halloween retail action — the question of whether seasonal sales might rebound in 2025 is worth consideration.
According to National Retail Federation data, Halloween spending took a hit in 2024, falling from an all-time high of $12.2 billion in 2023 to rest at $11.6 billion. Regardless of data showing a slowdown last year, there has been a definite resurgence in spending surrounding the late-October thematic holiday since the pre-pandemic era, per the NRF’s Katherine Cullen.
“I think it takes away from the fact that this holiday has grown in popularity,” Cullen said in the midst of last year’s Halloween season.
“When we look at older Gen Z and millennial-age consumers, Halloween is their favorite holiday. I think you have all this momentum and engagement around what used to be a relatively small event. Before the pandemic, it represented about $8 billion in terms of spending, and now we’re up at close to $12 billion,” she added.
And while the NRF hasn’t (yet) released its survey data or associated projections for this sales season, GrabOn writer Tushar Behara suggested that the $15 billion mark could be reached for Halloween 2025, although it should be noted that the methodology backing this figure was not made readily apparent.
On the other hand, as Axios writer Kelly Tyko underscored, Halloween is “one of the seasonal events most affected by tariffs,” given that the bulk of merchandise is imported from China.
Tyko further cited The Halloween and Costume Association, which warned in April that tariffs threatened to “wipe out Halloween and severely disrupt Christmas,” as well as Stephanie Carls — RetailMeNot retail insights expert — who told the publication that “With tariffs potentially driving up costs later this year, many shoppers are buying now to get ahead.”
“Shoppers know if they wait, the best items might be gone or more expensive,” Carls continued, which could explain (at least in part) the decision, made by many retailers, to pull forward the shopping season.
Target, Home Depot, Walmart, Lowe’s, and Others Kicking Things Off Early With Halloween Sales
With each retail holiday sales season cycling earlier than in days past, it should come as no surprise that many retailers — notably, Home Depot and Target — are getting in on the action as soon as possible.
Home Depot is currently advertising its assortment of Halloween offerings on its front page, as well as under its “Labor Day Must-Haves” assortment. Returning is its iconic 12-foot-tall “Skelly” statue, among a collection of other haunting decor items and seasonally appropriate lighting solutions, as USA Today noted.
Target dropped an Aug. 11 press release advertising itself as “your Halloween HQ” with the announcement of more than 1,500 items, starting at $1.
Tyko indicated that Walmart had already initiated its Halloween push, that Lowe’s had begin an early in-store launch on July 15 (with a full-store reset slated to be complete as of Aug. 22, and online by Aug. 25), that T.J. Maxx and Dollar Tree had followed suit to capture early Halloween spend, and that Michaels would wrap its rollout by Aug. 15.
Spirit Halloween Goes Big on Immersion For Halloween 2025, Maintaining Record-High Number of Stores
Finally, the company which built itself into a seasonal retail powerhouse — Spirit Halloween — signaled it believed opportunity was knocking this Halloween season, despite macroeconomic concerns and ongoing tariff pressures.
As Chain Store Age reported, Spirit Halloween is set to open ~1,500 locations this year, about the same number that it set records with in 2024. And as an Aug. 20 press release from the retailer indicated, “immersive” (and likely expensive) experiences were top-of-mind, particularly with the launch of a brand new “Madison Scare Park” haunted subway platform experience being slated for placement in 1,000 stores, per a separate USA Today article.
“All-new for 2025, the brand’s infamous in-store experience transports guests to Madison Scare Park, a haunted subway platform brought to life through an interactive design and eerie details. At the heart of the experience is this year’s show-stopping animatronics, debuting cutting-edge features like dual 180-degree rotational motors showcased in Twisted Grandma, a frightful twist on candy dispensers with Trick or Treat Pete, and advanced motion tracking as seen in the all-new Jack the Reaper animatronic,” the company detailed.
Discussion Questions
Do you believe Halloween spending in 2025 will rebound to outpace last year’s figures? If not, why not? If so, do you think beating 2023’s record of $12.2 billion is likely?
Will growing interest in Halloween and related events (parties, trick-or-treating, social media sharing) post-pandemic continue to lift sales, despite headwinds? Or, will enthusiasm fade?
Is it wise for retailers to extend holiday shopping seasons to substantially wider time frames? What is the likelihood that consumers will eventually become exhausted by non-stop holiday shopping periods?
Poll
Loading …BrainTrust
Neil Saunders
Managing Director, GlobalData
Jeff Sward
Founding Partner, Merchandising Metrics
Mohamed Amer, PhD
CEO & Strategic Board Advisor, Strategy Doctor
Recent Discussions
More Discussions
Has Kroger Discovered the Limits of Automated Warehouses?
Kroger is winding down its relationship with Ocado, citing cost overruns and a reorganization of its…What Can Ross Do To Cement its Recent Success Story?
Ross has seen strong sales and projects this trend to continue. How can it best cement…Is Cyber Week Set To Smash Sales Records This Year, as Salesforce Suggests?
Salesforce suggests that Cyber Week will set records in terms of sales this year. Is this…
From our data it looks like the Halloween occasion will be sizable with some modest value growth. However, volumes will be flat to slightly down as consumers pull back in light of price rises. Of course, the other thing to note is that some spending was pulled forward this year thanks to big Summerween promotions at many retailers.
While this is hardly one of retail’s most pressing questions – $12B is about 1/4 of 1% of retail sales – I guess it might be a useful barometer… but how to interpret it? are marginally higher sales a good thing, or the harbinger of hard times that the “treat theory” advocates? Let’s hope we avoid the conflict by just having a flat out decline! 🙂
The pull-forward buying is a symptom of retailer panic. Halloween is the canary in the coal mine for discretionary spending. The real winner is Spirit Halloween, doubling down on immersive experiences with “Madison Scar Park,” says it all: it’s not about transactions and operational efficiency, it’s about creating celebratory and identity moments consumers are willing to spend on.
We were at $8 billion pre-pandemic. Now we’re close to $12 billion. Not many businesses can claim that kind of growth. Now factor in a tariff driven inflationary environment, debt and default levels, and it’s tough to get optimistic about rosy growth for Halloween. And if households are thinking it all through to Thanksgiving and Christmas, they could get downright cautious about Halloween.
And it may indeed be smart to start a little early. Not so much out of growth opportunity as preserved margin opportunity. Start early, sell out early and avoid the post holiday margin killing markdowns. It’s a healthy way to start to learn how not to overbuy highly seasonal products, unless you’re a big fan of deep markdowns or pack and hold. Hats off to Spirit Halloween for how they manage their business.
The Halloween economy has evolved to much more than candy and costumes, so in that regard, last year wasn’t “down” at all. There were more adult Halloween parties in 2024 than in any previous year, and those types of events should be counted in.
Tariffs are the Boogieman. There will be no negative effects on the Halloween economy.
Let’s rewrite the narrative to say that 2023/2024 were flat, not down. Does that change the discussion? And, let’s be careful on how we measure 2025 success(?). Dollars are likely to increase more than general price increases.
Maybe the honest answer is that Halloween is losing its mojo?
Halloween keeps getting bigger for retailers. Even though spending dipped a little last year, it is still much higher than before the pandemic. That is why stores like Target, Walmart, and Home Depot are starting early, and Spirit Halloween is betting on in-store experiences to pull shoppers in. The one thing to watch will be how tariffs affect pricing and whether shoppers are willing to spend a bit more for the same products.
Consumers are already exhausted, and we see the peaks and valleys smooth out year after year. The competitive pressure of being first to market causes brands to continue to “pull forward” promotional periods, or “push back” the deadlines of when those promos end.
This is essentially just trading dollars back and forth over the calendar and isn’t accretive to the business.