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November 19, 2024
How Will the Shorter Season Disrupt Holiday Selling?
This year, a late Thanksgiving leaves only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, five fewer shopping days compared to last year. The tighter “official” holiday schedule — the shortest in five years — holds implications for the promotional calendar, shipping logistics, and the in-store holiday rush.
The shorter holiday season has been cited as a factor behind holiday sales events arriving in early October from Walmart, Amazon, Target, and Best Buy. Distractions from the presidential election also encouraged earlier deals.
“The holiday season really starts October 1,” Megan Gaffey, senior director of publisher partnerships at Rakuten Advertising, said on a recent eMarketer Tech-Talk webinar. “And you see a lot of advertisers launch Black Friday promotions the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to get ahead of the noise.”
Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance, told CNBC that the later Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year “will force the retailer’s hand to be pretty promotional in November.”
Saks’ latest Luxury Pulse survey concluded that this year’s contracted holiday shopping season is likewise leading to earlier purchases. The survey showed that 70% of luxury consumers plan to start their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving this year, a 14 percentage point increase from last year.
On delivery, the compressed time period will likely drive up shipping costs and increase the risks of delays. Juan Meisel, founder and CEO of Grip Shipping, told Retail Brew, “What that means is that you actually have to ship the exact same amount of product, or maybe a little bit less, in five days less.”
Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said on a reporter’s call in October that the shortened selling season “has the potential to impact consumers’ expectations about convenience, and again, their expectations that they can get something, you know, if not in the next two hours, certainly in the next two days.”
Carol Tome, UPS’ CEO, noted on the carrier’s third-quarter analyst call that with only 17 shipping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, forecasters and some customers are indicating that consumers are more likely to head to stores to complete their holiday purchases.
Jeff Howie, CFO at Williams Sonoma, noted on the home décor retailer’s second-quarter analyst call that the Christmas holiday moving from Monday to Wednesday likely favors e-commerce sales. He said, “Our mix is 66% e-commerce. That is actually a good guide for us.”
However, Howie also noted that squeezing the traditional holiday selling timeline across 27 days versus 32 last year heightens overall pressures to deliver. The CFO said, “Each day has to work harder, especially at retail.”
In the 2019 season, which also faced only 27 days between the two holidays, Target spent an extra $50 million more on payroll during the holiday quarter versus the prior year in anticipation of less of the typical in-store lull that typically occurs between the rushes of Black Friday weekend and the final weekend before Christmas.
Deb Mayfield, owner of Country Christmas Loft in Shelburne, Vermont, told NBC5, “Having a shorter span of time just makes it that much more important that we have everything organized here at the store.”
Discussion Questions
What are the biggest challenges retailers may face due to the shorter traditional holiday season?
What adjustments may still be necessary over November and December?
Poll
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Gwen Morrison
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Georganne Bender
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Dick Seesel
Principal, Retailing In Focus LLC
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I don’t think it will cause major disruption, especially as retailers have kicked off the selling season earlier this year. However, it adds pressure in two ways. First, concertinaing sales into a shorter period of time adds operational challenges in terms of running stores and logistics. Second, it gives retailers a little less time to react to shifts in demand. For example, if something is not selling through, retailers will need to make snappier judgements about whether to discount or wait and see if sales pick up naturally.
Yes, the selling season is shorter this time, but savvy customers should adapt. Neil is right about the ways in which retailers will have to pivot.
I go with “none of the above”: Thanksgiving-Xmas may well be the “official” period, but that’s all it is…people can (and will and already do) shop before next
ThursdayFriday. (In fact Holiday decorations seem to be rushed this year…perhaps for the very reson of Thanksgving being later.)From my own experience, brick-and-mortar shopping tends to be more intense and compressed — without the lulls typical of a “longer” season — but the numbers come out about the same. However, the logistics behind successful e-commerce will definitely feel the pressure of less time to execute.
The shorter holiday shopping season will not affect holiday sales for three reasons:
1. The holiday shopping season, when fewer days exist between Thanksgiving and Christmas, consumers naturally adjust the period to the number of days they need.
2. Amazon, and other e-commerce sales, allow complete flexibility in terms of the time periods when holiday gifts are purchased.
3. Social media becomes an instant platform for holiday specials, especially for new items, even before Halloween.
4. Even at traditional retail stores, “black Friday” starts weeks before the day after Thanksgiving.
The day and age of the holiday shopping season having an official start date is in the past.
Retailers should prepare for a dynamic and competitive market environment. With some economic uncertainties impacting consumer confidence, retailers must leverage their strengths and adapt to their customers’ changing preferences and expectations. Retailers preparing for the upcoming holiday rush have reason to be optimistic. Projections from the National Retail Federation suggest a 2.5% to 3.5% increase in retail sales for 2024, potentially totaling around $5.2 trillion to $5.3 trillion.
While economic factors like inflation and wage growth will significantly shape consumer spending, the holiday season is still expected to be positive for retailers. To succeed in this period of high consumer demand, retailers should look to take on the following strategies proactively:
There are also four key strategies retailers can leverage to capitalize on the demand surge:
OMG, we have five less holiday shopping days this year! That’s a surprise? Smart retailers planned ahead with promotions that came earlier and calls to action deadlines that are tighter.
Sometimes I think we call out things like shorter selling seasons to keep on hand as an excuse just in case sales fall short.
The impact will be minimal. This isn’t a surprise, retailers have known about this and have planned for it. The one wild card, if this holiday doesn’t go to plan, retailers will have less time to make adjustments and promote their way out of inventory problems if demand doesn’t match forecast.
I honestly think all will still be pretty similar to last year. This puts a little more emphasis on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and it’s likely encouraged some earlier shopping than is typical, but overall I don’t see it causing a big shift.
Obviously this puts more pressure on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Execution will be the name of the game. Shopper want their gifts to arrive on time so logistics teams will have to literally deliver. Let’s hope for minimal weather disruptions.
In the old days, long before ecommerce, and when Black Friday was actually Black Friday, the shorter selling window was a big deal. In 2024, with Black October/November, and Prime Day and ecommerce, it’s hard to believe that the calendar shift has a big impact on the overall season.
With a shorter holiday season, it’s important that retailers get in front of consumers early and provide a convenient, effortless shopping experience that gets them to the product(s) they’re looking for quickly and with minimal friction. For eCommerce, this means a seamless web or mobile shopping experience, starting with the search bar. When a customer inevitably visits the search bar to look for items like “cozy winter sweater for her” or “popular books for readers,” sites must be built to provide relevant results and recommendations that ultimately lead to successful cart conversions.
Retailers should continuously optimize their eCommerce user experience on the back end to prepare for the busy holiday season and beyond. This means using catalog-as-a-service (CaaS) tools to enrich their product data and engaging with AI-first product discovery tools to provide relevant and personalized search and recommendations. It also means designing tailored and easy-to-navigate web and mobile shopping experiences. Customers should be able to quickly find the holiday deals and promotions a brand offers while also being directed to the gift guides and content they’re looking for beyond the search bar, such as “top gifts for Dad” or “stocking stuffers under $25.” It’s a busy season, and if a customer runs into friction while shopping with one retailer, they’ll quickly abandon their cart and move on to the next option.
The biggest challenge of a shorter holiday season is the chaos of cramming the same sales volume into fewer days. Retailers face higher shipping costs, increased risks of delays, and overwhelmed in-store staff. Many will struggle with inventory management, either running out of key items or sitting on unsold stock after Christmas.
I think retailers must adjust fast by launching aggressive early promotions and extending store hours. They should focus on clear messaging about shipping cutoffs and offer flexible fulfillment options like BOPIS. Without these changes, the shorter season could easily turn into a logistical nightmare.