November 26, 2025
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Retail Experts on Holiday 2025: Consumer and Retailer Confusion, and AI Expectations
During a recent RetailWire roundtable hosted via LinkedIn earlier this month, CEO Chase Binnie was joined by a number of retail industry experts to take on an array of hot topics tied to this year’s holiday shopping season.
Following initial introductions, Binnie kicked off talks with an open-ended question asking for top-level predictions for this year’s holiday period as it concerned the retail business. Gwen Morrison — partner at Retail Cities and Candezent Advisory, and contributor to The Robin Report — was quick to point out that uncertainty was the word of the season.
“The consumer has certainly gone through tumultuous seasons — summer and into early fall — with a lot of unknowns… uncertainties. And so that’s caused a range of predictions for what this holiday season is going to bring, when people have not had a paycheck for a couple of weeks, or months, and lost their some of their benefits,” Morrison said. “It’s hard for people to have the confidence that we would hope for this time of year.”
VP of brand development for the Independent Grocers Alliance (IGA) Michael La Kier spoke of how, for both retail marketers and consumers, “The most wonderful time of the year has really become a complex maze.” A surprising economic resilience coinciding with macroeconomic headwinds — including tariffs, persistent inflation, and the recent government shutdown — had left both cohorts confused.
Scott Benedict, principal consultant for RETHINK Retail and CEO / founder of Benedict Enterprises, added that “cautious optimism was the word of the day,” gesturing toward spend projections of between high 3% and low 4% for the holiday season coming from sources.
“I feel like I’m usually the pessimist, and I was at the very beginning of the year in January: I immediately said I think holiday is going to be a challenge for retail. But given what we’ve seen over the last couple months, in the last few quarters, I do agree with Scott on the optimism piece and I actually think we’ll see slight growth just above inflation, which is what we saw last year,” said Melissa Minkow – global director, retail strategy and insights for CI&T.
“I actually agree with NRF [the National Retail Federation] as well. The key word of resilience that Michael mentioned is so crucial, because we now have a consumer that is just used to a state of uncertainty. We’ve had the pandemic, we’ve had many years of ups and downs and changes and I think we’ve become anti-fragile consumers,” Minkow continued.
RetailWire Roundtable Participants Take on Inventory, Private Label, and Retail AI Topics
Other major topics of discussion included:
- Holiday shopping season pull-forward: Zach Zalowitz — principal of commerce at Perficient — responded to a general consensus that the holiday deal season had both been diluted by a proliferation of sales events, and observed a moved-ahead cadence of these deals, which required earlier planning by teams. “Definitely have seen the planning pull forward in the year. Typically that’s in early September when you’re rallying the operations team digital and supply chain. These conversations are now starting in like late May, June and July. So you know, it’s less this big bang now,” Zalowitz suggested. “I see this long ramp-up, and how the operations team are starting to plan much earlier — I think a lot of that demand doesn’t just now hit on Cyber Monday, but into October and through November.”
- Dilution (or evolution) of the “doorbuster” must-have retail item: With Morrison asking those present to think of a singular doorbuster item this holiday go-around, La Kier noted that social media had somewhat diluted the concept due to a wider array of inventory choices, while Benedict underscored the retail-wide switch to the timed drop model, versus more traditional channels.
- Private label continues to impress: “And we [retailers, brands] say private label. But shoppers don’t think that way. Right? They think brands and, you know, value arguably is at the top of every shopper’s wish list for this holiday season. And so affordable affordability is in vogue,” La Kier stated on the private label question.
A major hinge of the conversation, perhaps unsurprisingly, rested upon the notion of AI’s place in the current, and future, retail environment.
La Kier began by stating that today’s AI capabilities were “the worst we’ll ever deal with,” as it will “continue to improve over the course of time” to become invaluable. Morrison followed up with a comparison between the tech stack “sound bytes” of past industry conferences – notably, NFTs and the metaverse – saying that while those concepts had lost their luster, retail AI was instead at “the beginning of a long trajectory.”
Zalowitz drilled down into AI’s current state of affairs when it came to retail operations.
“AI is real within these bespoke systems. Demand planning, inventory order management and then the front end solutions. The opportunity is: I don’t think they’re connected well. I don’t think there’s a lot of connectivity between the plan and the actual execution. That bridge is still not there,” he offered, saying that those enterprises which failed to connect the machine learning to a downstream execution system may be making missteps.
Minkow put a bow on this portion of the AI roundtable talk by endorsing AI as a true problem-solver: “AI definitely solves real problems for the consumer, it also definitely solves real problems for the retailers. So that’s why I’d say it’s not [mere] hype.”
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Discussion Questions
Do you agree with the general consensus that AI, in the retail space, has become more than a buzzword? Why or why not? Which problems must the tech overcome in the short term?
Do you agree with the notion put forth by Minkow regarding the evolution of shoppers into “anti-fragile consumers”?
What do you think about the general idea of a dilution of major doorbusters into a more fractured set of retail desirables due to social media and other modern media environments?
Poll
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On the various trends…
Private label is outpacing national brands and will reach 21.1% of grocery sales this year. But this isn’t just downtrading. Premium private label is growing fast and is causing sideways switching, especially over the holidays
AI is playing a bigger role, but it is also hyped. More people do use it for ideation around gifting, but it is one of many tools used for holiday shopping. Relatively few people are using it for direct buying.
And yes, this will be a solid holiday in terms of value growth. Less so in terms of volume. Consumers are cautious, but they are still spending.
Is AI overhyped? (ChatGPT) > Short answer: yes and no — it’s both overhyped and underhyped, depending on what people mean
Wow! Its answers have become more human already. 🙂
Who are the “generals” making this consensus?
2025 is the year retail got serious about AI. It’s non-negotiable now, as retailers, brands and consumers go from early experimentation to embedding AI into their daily habits. Retail and tech giants will solve for fragmentation as the AI infrastructure and industry collaboration evolve.
Do you agree with the general consensus that AI, in the retail space, has become more than a buzzword
No. Or more to the point, it’s become such a buzzword that it’s become virtually impossible to talk about it rationally…you know, the kind of thing “experts” should be doing.
I do agree that AI has moved past the buzzword phase in retail. Demand forecasting, inventory flow, and customer-facing search are all places where the value is measurable. The challenge comes around using good AI Algorithms for smarter merchandising efforts and omni channel personalization. Most retailers still have fragmented systems where the upstream model and the downstream action don’t talk to each other.
On the “anti-fragile consumer” idea, there is truth to it but then being in a roller coaster ride is part and parcel of Retail. I agree that consumer emotions have changed and are more deal oriented and loyalty to brand is not present but thats where a good AI algo for the vertical of business can help.
As for doorbusters, I think this has been more of an evolution. Social media has turned discovery into a constant drip instead of a single moment. But it also means opportunities are more distributed if teams are watching those signals closely.
Is AI more than a buzzword in retail? Absolutely. Retailers have embraced AI in multiple areas, and consumers are using AI extensively in the research phases of shopping. Are they buying through AI? Eh, not so much. Yet. Will we see impact of AI use by consumers in holiday sales this year? Yes, I believe so, but it will primarily come from consumers using AI to help with product discovery and research and then be directed to retail websites for purchases. I am sure we will hear about some percentage of purchases coming from Instant Checkout on ChatGPT this season, but I don’t expect this will be a significant percentage, likely single digits.
The real AI story, for now, is how retailers are using AI internally in their organizations to improve efficiencies across their operations and supply chain, and to enable employees to compete tasks they couldn’t do before as easily or as quickly or simply just could not do before at all. That’s the current win with AI in retail. The consumer side isn’t quite here yet, at least not in large numbers that make a dent in overall retail sales.
Will the final holiday sales figures be as rosy and cheery as NRF makes them out to be? I have my doubts. Consumers seem to be developing a “throw caution to the wind” attitude toward spending that honestly doesn’t seem financially sustainable long-term amidst the uncertainty consumers are currently tolerating.But, we’re starting to see shifts to more essential goods vs discretionary spend so I expect more value purchases rather than high volume of purchases per consumer this season. People enjoy giving gifts so they’re less likely to cut spending too much this season. The real consumer spending story will begin in 2026!
Yes — I agree that in many parts of retail, AI has become more than a buzzword. From personalization and demand planning to smarter pricing, inventory forecasting, and discovery tools, the technology is already delivering incremental gains. But that doesn’t mean we’re over the hump. What matters now is bridging the gap between “smart algorithms” and consistent execution — reliable data integration, seamless customer experience, and alignment with merchandising and supply-chain operations. Until retail AI proves scalable, transparent, and repeatable, the “promise” remains just that.
I also find the notion from Melissa Minkow (on our panel) of shoppers evolving into “anti-fragile consumers” compelling — consumers who have weathered economic and societal disruptions, become accustomed to uncertainty, and now expect resilience, value, and flexibility from retailers. That mindset means retailers can’t rely on old playbooks. Survival — and success — depends on building everyday trust: stable pricing, dependable inventory, flexible channels, and a brand that reads the risks and acts with empathy.
Finally, I agree that the era of blockbuster single “doorbuster” items is fading. Social media, broader assortment, and continuous drop-and-deal cycles have fractured consumer attention and shifted behaviors toward a more diffuse set of “retail desirables” — micro-drops, flash deals, limited-edition SKUs, private-label exclusives, and omnichannel convenience. As someone who’s participated in panel discussions on this, I respect the viewpoints of my fellow panelists who emphasized this shift. Retailers today must get far more surgical: targeting smaller, more fluid segments, tailoring offers and messages, and delivering value in lots of smaller, meaningful ways rather than hinging performance on one or two loss-leader items. The winners will be the ones that build agility, insight, and relevance — not those chasing yesterday’s big-ticket magic bullet.
AI in retail is well past the buzzword phase. It’s already driving results in planning, routing, search, and personalization. The next step is extending those capabilities to the sales floor – giving frontline teams access to real-time information and AI support.
Many tech consultants are talking up AI more than they actually understand, creating unrealistic expectations. The article points out the real problem: we are spending huge amounts on AI tools but failing to connect them to our daily operations. Our investment costs are rising because we are buying the new technology without fully figuring out how to make it work and actually save us money. I still pitch for Unified commerce as a first stepping stone which is augmented with AI tech.
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On the various trends…
Private label is outpacing national brands and will reach 21.1% of grocery sales this year. But this isn’t just downtrading. Premium private label is growing fast and is causing sideways switching, especially over the holidays
AI is playing a bigger role, but it is also hyped. More people do use it for ideation around gifting, but it is one of many tools used for holiday shopping. Relatively few people are using it for direct buying.
And yes, this will be a solid holiday in terms of value growth. Less so in terms of volume. Consumers are cautious, but they are still spending.
Wow! Its answers have become more human already. 🙂
Who are the “generals” making this consensus?
2025 is the year retail got serious about AI. It’s non-negotiable now, as retailers, brands and consumers go from early experimentation to embedding AI into their daily habits. Retail and tech giants will solve for fragmentation as the AI infrastructure and industry collaboration evolve.
Do you agree with the general consensus that AI, in the retail space, has become more than a buzzword
No. Or more to the point, it’s become such a buzzword that it’s become virtually impossible to talk about it rationally…you know, the kind of thing “experts” should be doing.
I do agree that AI has moved past the buzzword phase in retail. Demand forecasting, inventory flow, and customer-facing search are all places where the value is measurable. The challenge comes around using good AI Algorithms for smarter merchandising efforts and omni channel personalization. Most retailers still have fragmented systems where the upstream model and the downstream action don’t talk to each other.
On the “anti-fragile consumer” idea, there is truth to it but then being in a roller coaster ride is part and parcel of Retail. I agree that consumer emotions have changed and are more deal oriented and loyalty to brand is not present but thats where a good AI algo for the vertical of business can help.
As for doorbusters, I think this has been more of an evolution. Social media has turned discovery into a constant drip instead of a single moment. But it also means opportunities are more distributed if teams are watching those signals closely.
Is AI more than a buzzword in retail? Absolutely. Retailers have embraced AI in multiple areas, and consumers are using AI extensively in the research phases of shopping. Are they buying through AI? Eh, not so much. Yet. Will we see impact of AI use by consumers in holiday sales this year? Yes, I believe so, but it will primarily come from consumers using AI to help with product discovery and research and then be directed to retail websites for purchases. I am sure we will hear about some percentage of purchases coming from Instant Checkout on ChatGPT this season, but I don’t expect this will be a significant percentage, likely single digits.
The real AI story, for now, is how retailers are using AI internally in their organizations to improve efficiencies across their operations and supply chain, and to enable employees to compete tasks they couldn’t do before as easily or as quickly or simply just could not do before at all. That’s the current win with AI in retail. The consumer side isn’t quite here yet, at least not in large numbers that make a dent in overall retail sales.
Will the final holiday sales figures be as rosy and cheery as NRF makes them out to be? I have my doubts. Consumers seem to be developing a “throw caution to the wind” attitude toward spending that honestly doesn’t seem financially sustainable long-term amidst the uncertainty consumers are currently tolerating.But, we’re starting to see shifts to more essential goods vs discretionary spend so I expect more value purchases rather than high volume of purchases per consumer this season. People enjoy giving gifts so they’re less likely to cut spending too much this season. The real consumer spending story will begin in 2026!
Yes — I agree that in many parts of retail, AI has become more than a buzzword. From personalization and demand planning to smarter pricing, inventory forecasting, and discovery tools, the technology is already delivering incremental gains. But that doesn’t mean we’re over the hump. What matters now is bridging the gap between “smart algorithms” and consistent execution — reliable data integration, seamless customer experience, and alignment with merchandising and supply-chain operations. Until retail AI proves scalable, transparent, and repeatable, the “promise” remains just that.
I also find the notion from Melissa Minkow (on our panel) of shoppers evolving into “anti-fragile consumers” compelling — consumers who have weathered economic and societal disruptions, become accustomed to uncertainty, and now expect resilience, value, and flexibility from retailers. That mindset means retailers can’t rely on old playbooks. Survival — and success — depends on building everyday trust: stable pricing, dependable inventory, flexible channels, and a brand that reads the risks and acts with empathy.
Finally, I agree that the era of blockbuster single “doorbuster” items is fading. Social media, broader assortment, and continuous drop-and-deal cycles have fractured consumer attention and shifted behaviors toward a more diffuse set of “retail desirables” — micro-drops, flash deals, limited-edition SKUs, private-label exclusives, and omnichannel convenience. As someone who’s participated in panel discussions on this, I respect the viewpoints of my fellow panelists who emphasized this shift. Retailers today must get far more surgical: targeting smaller, more fluid segments, tailoring offers and messages, and delivering value in lots of smaller, meaningful ways rather than hinging performance on one or two loss-leader items. The winners will be the ones that build agility, insight, and relevance — not those chasing yesterday’s big-ticket magic bullet.
AI in retail is well past the buzzword phase. It’s already driving results in planning, routing, search, and personalization. The next step is extending those capabilities to the sales floor – giving frontline teams access to real-time information and AI support.
Many tech consultants are talking up AI more than they actually understand, creating unrealistic expectations. The article points out the real problem: we are spending huge amounts on AI tools but failing to connect them to our daily operations. Our investment costs are rising because we are buying the new technology without fully figuring out how to make it work and actually save us money. I still pitch for Unified commerce as a first stepping stone which is augmented with AI tech.