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Retail Theft Has Soared 90% vs. Pre-Pandemic: What Does the Future of Loss Prevention Look Like?

Written by Nicholas Morine

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While retailers are expecting a booming holiday season to close out the year, at least one statistic among many other positive indicators doesn't look so merry or bright.

According to the National Retail Federation's (NRF) latest "Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2024" report, there has been a staggering 93% increase in the average number of shoplifting incidents compared to 2019. Further, there was an equally significant 90% increase in dollar value lost as a result of theft and fraud compared to the pre-pandemic era.

The acceleration of theft incidents hasn't necessarily slowed in recent years, either: According to the NRF, a 26% increase in theft incidents was reported between 2022 and 2023 by retailers surveyed.

In Response to Increased Retail Theft, Retailers Have Had to Impose Friction in the Form of Security Measures

With survey respondents indicating that the nature of crime has shifted — for instance, NRF data shows that thieves are now more likely than ever to operate in groups, and the threat of violence has become significantly more common — retailers appear to have reluctantly adopted stricter security measures.

"This isn't what we were used to. This isn't the shoplifting I was apprehending 30 years ago," David Johnston, NRF vice president of asset protection and retail operations, told FOX Business. "These are people who are shoplifting because they know when they have an outlet to sell this merchandise to."

In response, retailers have turned to locking up product — and thereby inconveniencing legitimate customers — hiring armed loss prevention officers or other contractors, cutting store hours, and even reducing the amount of product available on store shelves.

With some stores in the United States essentially becoming mere vending machines, as Johnston suggested, it's clear that customer service and the overall experience of safe shopping have become significantly imperiled.

Organized Retail Crime Rearing Its Head: Can It Be Combated Without Losing Loyal Customers?

The majority of concern surrounding this spike in retail theft hinges on one concept: organized retail crime (ORC). In fact, ORC was the top issue cited by retailers in the NRF survey as having become more of an urgent concern over the past year — 76% said as much.

"Not every shoplifter is going out there and selling their stolen goods online or at a flea market. They're selling them in larger mass quantities to these local, regional or transnational organizations who are helping to feed the system," Johnston said.

With the NRF calling for passage of the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, as FOX Business outlined, Johnston made it very clear that targeted legislation aimed directly at curtailing the efforts of these sorts of criminal enterprises was key to the industry's future health.

"We need the coordination between state, local and federal law enforcement to go after these organized retail crime groups, because when you dismantle one of those you then dissolve all the underlying opportunities or needs of their supply, which is the shoplifting that takes place in the stores," he said.

The passage of that act would establish an Organized Retail Crime Coordination Center within the Department of Homeland Security to "coordinate the federal law enforcement activities related to organized retail crime," per Congress.gov, in addition to the expansion of several related laws.

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