TJX Marshalls retail store at Pineapple Commons Stuart Florida
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February 28, 2025

TJX To Add 130 Stores in 2025, Shrugging Off Tariff Talk as Having a ‘Silver Lining’ for Company Buyers

Off-price retail umbrella TJX appears to be poised for significant growth in 2025, bolstered by strong financial performance in recent times as well as somewhat unique positioning in the retail marketplace during a time of turbulence — and tariff talk.

As Retail TouchPoints noted, the company’s roster of banners — including HomeGoods, HomeSense, Marshalls, Sierra, and TJ Maxx — delivered extremely solid bottom lines during the company’s fiscal 2025, which drew to a close on Feb. 1.

Net sales for TJX were up 4% year-over-year, coming in at $56.4 billion. In terms of quarterly earnings, as Zacks Equity Research outlined, EPS came in at $1.23 per share, beating Zacks’ projections of $1.16, as well as topping EPS of $1.12 just a year ago.

Zacks indicated that TJX had offered up a number of surprise beats, from earnings to overall revenues, and that the company’s shares had outperformed the S&P 500’s gain of 1.3%, seeing a 1.6% trend upward.

TJX Adding 130 Stores This Year, With a Long-Term Target of 7,000 Locations

TJX rolled out an extensive plan to open 130 new locations over the next 12 months, including (but not limited to):

  • 40 TJ Maxx or Marshalls locations
  • 30 HomeGoods stores
  • 20 Sierra locations
  • 9 HomeSense stores

“We plan to add about 130 new stores, which will bring our year-end total to over 5,200 stores,” said TJX CFO John Klinger, per Glossy. “This would represent a store growth of about 3% in the U.S.”

Further, TJX gestured toward plans to open 22 stores in Europe, 12 north of the border in Canada, and six in Australia. Meanwhile, approximately 500 stores are slated for remodels, and 40 stores are likely to face relocation to more desirable lots.

“In addition to our future store growth opportunities, I want to reiterate my excitement for our newly formed joint venture with Grupo Axo in Mexico and our recent investment in Brands for Less in the Middle East,” TJX CEO and President Ernie Herrman said during a late-February analyst call. “We see both of these as a great way to participate in the growth of off-price in different areas of the world.”

Herrman pointed to the recent misfortunes encountered by competitors Bargain Hunt, Big Lots, JOANN, and Party City as leaving opportunity on the table for TJX in terms of future growth.

“We do see a lot of [real estate] availability going forward,” Herrman said.

“As we’ve talked about in the past, we see an opportunity to expand into some more rural areas where the department store of the area closes and we can fill that void. Also, you’re still seeing large-box closures that we have the opportunity to either go into a new area or to relocate a store to a better shopping area,” he added.

TJX imposed a new long-term target of 7,000 stores worldwide, meaning that the company would need to set up 1,900 new locations to meet this expectation.

TJX Suggests Tariffs Pose No Significant Concerns, and ‘Buying Opportunities’ for Company Teams Exist

While other retailers may face significant headwinds due to the ongoing tariff impositions and plans issued by President Donald Trump and his administration, TJX execs seem to believe that the company is well-positioned to weather this storm without much issue.

Retail TouchPoints suggested that Herrman exhibited cautious optimism over these concerns, particularly given that TJX sources very little of its product directly from China. As an off-price retailer, many of TJX’s buys come directly from other retailers in respectively local markets, whether that’s overstock, surplus, liquidated wares, or other goods.

“The silver lining is that with consumer confidence down and a bit of a rocky environment out there and the way our buyers operate — which is that the buyers go out and they really assess at the retail level what we can retail the product for and then they work backwards to what the cost should be — their strategy is not to factor in tariffs or any other costs that actually can play into the picture here,” Herrman said during the call.

“A few years ago with extreme inflation, we navigated right through that, just as we will on this. It’s a different headline, [but] the same approach. So whether there’s tariffs or no tariffs, our buyers’ focus is on buying the goods, determining the cost based off retail that we can put the goods out at. And because of the environment we’re in, where there’s a loss of consumer confidence, stores closing, etc., I’m thinking there’s more availability out there over the next six months, even more than there has been, which is going to create more buying opportunities for our teams,” he added.

Discussion Questions

Will TJX see continued growth in 2025, both in terms of its footprint as well as in terms of sales and traffic?

Is Herrman’s optimism over the company’s ability to weather macroeconomic concerns such as tariffs misplaced? What unforeseen headwinds could slow TJX’s anticipated growth as it rolls out a significant growth strategy?

Will TJX’s comparative reliance on brick-and-mortar retail over omnichannel offerings, at least in comparison to other competitors in the low-cost retail space like Amazon and Walmart, damage its prospects as online shopping grows in popularity?

Poll

6 Comments
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Neil Saunders

The holiday quarter is always a busy one for TJX, and it is reasonable to expect that growth will moderate a little in the year ahead. However, TJX will remain in positive territory. It is also somewhat less impacted by uncertainties such as tariffs, both because its buying model shields it from some of the impacts and because price increases elsewhere in retail will push more shoppers in its direction. In this sense, TJX is proving that it truly is a retailer for all seasons.

Paula Rosenblum

Totally agree because much of what they buy (I don’t know the percent) is bought landed.

my mantra remains TJX always wins

David Biernbaum

TJX’s growth prospects in 2025 will likely be influenced by several factors, including consumer spending trends and economic conditions.
The company’s ability to adapt to shifting retail landscapes, such as the continuing rise of e-commerce and changing consumer preferences, will also play a critical role.

Additionally, strategic expansion and effective inventory management could further enhance its footprint and drive sales and traffic increases.

Moreover, the company’s focus on sustainability and corporate social responsibility initiatives may enhance its brand reputation and customer loyalty, further supporting its growth prospects in 2025.

However, TJX may face challenges such as increased competition from online retailers and the pressure to maintain competitive pricing.

Supply chain disruptions could also impact inventory availability and affect sales performance.

Furthermore, shifts in consumer behavior and preferences may require continuous adaptation to remain relevant in the ever-evolving retail market.

Last edited 8 months ago by David Biernbaum
Craig Sundstrom
Craig Sundstrom

Mr. Morine is free to define words as he wishes, but I don’t think I’d describe a ~2% growth in store count as “sigificant”. OTC, I’d describe it as “modest” and well positioned to take advantage of a range economic outcomes ranging from “good” to “poor”; which of course is what a thoughtful long-term plan should do.

Nolan Wheeler
Nolan Wheeler

TJX’s growth plans show just how resilient the off-price model is right now. While other retailers deal with store closures and supply chain issues, TJX is turning those challenges into opportunities – taking over empty retail spaces and sourcing excess inventory at great prices. It’s a smart strategy and a big reason why off-price retail keeps winning.

Lisa Taylor

Stubborn inflation and avoiding potential tariffs in purchasing creates a perfect growth environment for TJX.

BrainTrust

"While other retailers deal with store closures and supply chain issues, TJX is turning those challenges into opportunities…"
Avatar of Nolan Wheeler

Nolan Wheeler

Founder and CEO, SYNQ


"TJX’s growth prospects in 2025 will likely be influenced by several factors, including consumer spending trends and economic conditions."
Avatar of David Biernbaum

David Biernbaum

Founder & President, David Biernbaum & Associates LLC


"Totally agree because much of what they buy (I don’t know the percent) is bought landed. My mantra remains TJX always wins."
Avatar of Paula Rosenblum

Paula Rosenblum

Co-founder, RSR Research


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