Is Drone Hysteria an Ominous Sign for Drone Delivery’s Prospects?

Mystery sightings of unidentified aircraft on the East Coast, primarily in New Jersey, have exposed and elevated public anxiety around drones, but experiments around home delivery via drones continue unabated.

Alphabet’s Wing announced last week that it was expanding its partnership with DoorDash to enable customers in Dallas-Fort Worth to receive drone delivery from 50 food establishments in the area. Traveling at a speed of 65 mph at a cruising height of about 150 feet, the drones can “deliver items and meals to doorsteps in as little as 15 minutes,” according to Wing.

The partnership expansion follows pilot programs in Melbourne, Australia, and Christiansburg, Virginia. 

Amazon Prime Air in early December announced that it had introduced its “most advanced” delivery drone in Phoenix’s Valley West district and College Station, Texas. The MK30 drone, carrying packages 5 pounds or less, travels two times farther and is “significantly quieter” than Amazon’s previous drones.

“It is the first drone we have developed from the ground up using a requirements-based process including more stringent requirements that will allow us to eventually reach a half billion customers annually,” explained Stephen Wells, chief project engineer for the Prime Air team. “We designed it with aerospace levels of reliability and redundancy.”

In late August, Fort Worth became the first major metropolitan U.S. city to offer commercial drone deliveries with packages first flying from nearby Walmart stores.

Walmart partner DroneUp confirmed in August to Axios that it was closing a combined 18 Walmart delivery hubs in Arizona, Utah, and Florida, leaving Walmart with 15 (11 in Dallas, three in Arkansas, and one in Virginia). The closures were attributed to challenges scaling expenses, with the average drone delivery costing about $30 versus a goal of below $7, a price similar to ground delivery but at a faster speed.

Walmart stressed that the reception from customers is favorable so far.

“We are excited about the momentum and positive customer response we’ve experienced around drone delivery,” Walmart at the time said in a statement to The Verge. “This service will continue to evolve as we learn more about customer preferences and drone capabilities. Our drone delivery program is still a pilot and by focusing our efforts in Dallas-Fort Worth, we can learn more about the potential to scale this innovative delivery option for Walmart’s customers.”

Consumer surveys have generally found people open to drone delivery due to the potential for faster delivery at lower prices.

A recent McKinsey survey of more than 3,000 consumers in six countries found that 76% are willing to switch to commercial drone deliveries from other delivery modes, representing a 19% increase from a prior survey in 2021. More than half (58%) are willing to pay a premium for drone deliveries compared to traditional delivery methods. Faster delivery was cited as the most attractive aspect of drone deliveries globally, a significant shift from the 2021 survey, when delivery cost was the top factor.

Regardless of the reception in other cases, the hundreds of suspected drone sightings over New Jersey, New York, and other Eastern states since mid-November have sparked anxiety, temporary FAA flight restrictions, calls for military intervention, and a heap of conspiracy theories. According to CBS News, 5,000 alleged sightings have been reported in just the last few weeks, though “only a hundred or so have generated actual law enforcement leads.”

The still-uncertain origin of the flying objects has also elicited calls for more regulation of drones not only due to concerns over security and safety but also privacy, with most privately owned drones resembling flying high-definition video cameras.

However, an engineering professor from George Mason University, Missy Cummings, noted that people are more likely seeing “aircraft, stars, or reflections off of objects, like towers.” She explained, “Of all of those options, drone is the least likely, because it’s actually pretty hard to pick these out of the sky.”

Reacting to drone delivery arriving in Fort Worth, Bo Mei, a professor of computer science at Texas Christian University, wrote in a university blog post that the use of low-resolution cameras for navigation purposes and not capturing live feeds or photographs are good steps toward ensuring privacy.

“The success of maintaining privacy also depends on how transparent the program is with the public and how responsive it is to any concerns that arise,” Mei wrote. “Public trust can be built through clear communication about how data is collected, stored and used.”