Valentine’s Day Spending Projected To Hit Record $27.5 Billion in 2025

Cupid’s arrow might not only be pointed at the hearts of lovers from coast to coast this year, according to National Retail Federation data, but also at their wallets.

“Whether they are celebrating a significant other or someone else in their lives, Valentine’s Day is meaningful for many people,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a recent report. “Consumers are looking for special ways to treat their loved ones and can expect retailers to provide the best gift options and deals.”

At an average spend of $188.81 per person, the NRF expects that U.S. consumers will end up spending a record $27.5 million for Valentine’s Day in 2025. If accurate, this figure will beat 2024’s spend of $25.8 billion and just barely edge past the previous record holder — 2020 — at $27.4 billion.

Majority of Americans Expect To Participate in Valentine’s Day Spending, Candies and Flowers Top of Mind

Per survey results from NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, a majority of respondents (56%) said they plan to participate in Valentine’s Day this year, up marginally from last year’s total of 53%. Men are more likely than women to say they are taking part, with 55% indicating as much compared to 51% saying so last year.

Among the top five gift categories, candies, flowers, and greeting cards stood at the front of the pack:

• Candies (56% of respondents indicated a plan to purchase this category for their significant other)
• Flowers (40%)
• Greeting cards (40%)
• An evening out (35%)
• Jewelry (22%)

Despite coming in at fifth place above, jewelry is expected to account for an outsized share of spend ($6.5 billion) compared to date night ($5.4 billion), flowers ($2.9 billion), candy ($2.5 billion), and greeting cards ($1.4 billion).

US Consumers Gift Most to Significant Others on Valentine’s Day, but Another Trend Is Growing

While it seems obvious that consumers would gift most often and generously to significant others during Valentine’s Day — and that is indeed the case — another trend is growing in popularity.

Nearly one-third (32%) of those polled indicated they would be buying gifts for friends this time around, the highest affirmative response rate to this question in the survey’s history. Further, another record was set by the number of respondents stating an intention to buy gifts for coworkers (19%, up from 16% last year). Falling in line with 2024’s figures, 32% said they would be treating their pets for Valentine’s Day this year.

“Consumers plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day through a variety of ways to show appreciation and love for the many different people around them,” said Prosper Insights & Analytics EVP of Strategy Phil Rist.

“Purchasing gifts for those outside of significant others or family members continues to rise in popularity and reflects consumers’ growing interest in celebrating all the meaningful relationships in their lives,” Rist continued.

Online Shopping Takes the Crown This Valentine’s Day, Yet Brick-and-Mortar Isn’t Far Behind

In terms of where (or how) consumers might be parking their dollars during the season of love, NRF data suggests that online shopping is taking the lead.

A full 38% of respondents indicated that they would be buying at least some of their gifts online, with department stores coming in as the second-most popular answer (34%). Discount stores (29%) and specialty shops and florists (18%) rounded out the top responses.

Numerator’s Numbers Tell a Similar, But Different, Story

Numerator weighed in on the subject with a slightly different story, as reported by Chain Store Age.

According to Numerator data, 64% of those polled expect to participate in Valentine’s Day shopping, with the primary benefactors being big-box retailers (44%) and grocery stores (35%).

However, as the outlet noted, going out to eat and gift-giving remain the most common ways to celebrate, and spend will be distributed across several retail channels.